Every race we track, with what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say when a voter asks, next to prediction-market odds and the average of recent polls. The six U.S. Senate seats rated toss-ups, plus Alaska's governor, U.S. House and State Senate District O races.
Every candidate on the ballot in the nine races we track. AI panel is the share of answers naming the candidate across eight consumer AI models over the last 7 days; market odds are prediction-market prices to win (Polymarket, Kalshi); poll average is an equal-weight average of the most recent public polls. As of Oct 6, 2026. Share of AI responses, not a forecast.
| Race | Candidate | AI panel | Market odds | Poll average | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Dan Sullivan | 54% | 27% | 45% | 42% |
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Mary Peltola | 43% | 74% | 44% | 54% |
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Gerald L. Heikes | 1.4% | n/a | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Josh Turek | 46% | 45% | 46% | 46% |
| Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Ashley Hinson | 41% | 55% | 44% | 46% |
| Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Thomas Laehn | 12% | n/a | 2.3% | 7% |
| Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Troy Jackson | 50% | 57% | 46% | 51% |
| Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Susan Collins | 50% | 43% | 48% | 47% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Abdul El-Sayed | 51% | 72% | 47% | 57% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Mike Rogers | 44% | 28% | 44% | 39% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Tim Long | 1.3% | n/a | n/a | 1.3% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Lydia Christensen | 0.5% | n/a | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Walter P. Kristy | 0.1% | n/a | n/a | 0.1% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Douglas P. Marsh | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.0% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Sherrod Brown | 53% | 62% | 48% | 54% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Jon Husted | 28% | 38% | 43% | 36% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Bill Redpath | 17% | n/a | 3.0% | 10% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Greg Levy | 0.7% | n/a | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 | James Talarico | 45% | 66% | 49% | 53% |
| Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Ken Paxton | 39% | 34% | 44% | 39% |
| Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Ted Brown | 14% | n/a | 3.0% | 8% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | Nick Begich III | 62% | 86% | 47% | 65% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | Bill Hill | 18% | 12% | 37% | 23% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | James C. McDermott | 10% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | Eric Hafner | 7% | 2.6% | 7% | 5% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 55% | 78% | 32% | 55% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Treg Taylor | 17% | 1.1% | 7% | 8% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Dave Bronson | 15% | 1.3% | 14% | 10% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Bernadette Wilson | 12% | 20% | 18% | 17% |
| Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026 | George Rauscher | 52% | n/a | n/a | 52% |
| Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026 | Peter Bauer | 30% | n/a | n/a | 30% |
| Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026 | Ryan Sheldon | 16% | n/a | n/a | 16% |
6 Senate races in 6 states, plus 3 Alaska races. The same numbers are published as JSON at /data/election-monitor.json (CC-BY-4.0).