Every race we track, with what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say when a voter asks, next to prediction-market odds and the average of recent polls. The six U.S. Senate seats rated toss-ups, plus Alaska's governor, U.S. House and State Senate District O races.
Every candidate on the ballot in the nine races we track. AI panel is the share of answers naming the candidate across eight consumer AI models over the last 7 days; market odds are prediction-market prices to win (Polymarket, Kalshi); poll average is an equal-weight average of the most recent public polls. As of Oct 10, 2026. Share of AI responses, not a forecast.
| Race | Candidate | AI panel | Market odds | Poll average | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Dan Sullivan | 55% | 27% | 45% | 42% |
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Mary Peltola | 43% | 72% | 44% | 53% |
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Gerald L. Heikes | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Josh Turek | 45% | 43% | 46% | 45% |
| Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Ashley Hinson | 39% | 57% | 44% | 47% |
| Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Thomas Laehn | 17% | n/a | 2.3% | 9% |
| Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Troy Jackson | 50% | 57% | 46% | 51% |
| Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Susan Collins | 50% | 42% | 48% | 46% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Abdul El-Sayed | 50% | 67% | 47% | 55% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Mike Rogers | 47% | 34% | 44% | 42% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Lydia Christensen | 1.4% | n/a | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Tim Long | 0.9% | n/a | n/a | 0.9% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Douglas P. Marsh | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.0% |
| Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Walter P. Kristy | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.0% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Sherrod Brown | 52% | 60% | 48% | 53% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Jon Husted | 30% | 40% | 43% | 38% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Bill Redpath | 16% | n/a | 3.0% | 10% |
| Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 | Greg Levy | 0.9% | n/a | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 | James Talarico | 46% | 63% | 49% | 53% |
| Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Ken Paxton | 38% | 37% | 44% | 40% |
| Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 | Ted Brown | 15% | n/a | 3.0% | 9% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | Nick Begich III | 65% | 86% | 47% | 66% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | Bill Hill | 15% | 13% | 37% | 22% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | James C. McDermott | 10% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% |
| Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 | Eric Hafner | 9% | 2.5% | 7% | 6% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 54% | 77% | 32% | 54% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Treg Taylor | 20% | 1.1% | 7% | 9% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Dave Bronson | 15% | 1.2% | 14% | 10% |
| Alaska Governor Race 2026 | Bernadette Wilson | 10% | 20% | 18% | 16% |
| Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026 | George Rauscher | 48% | n/a | n/a | 48% |
| Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026 | Peter Bauer | 35% | n/a | n/a | 35% |
| Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026 | Ryan Sheldon | 14% | n/a | n/a | 14% |
6 Senate races in 6 states, plus 3 Alaska races. The same numbers are published as JSON at /data/election-monitor.json (CC-BY-4.0).