Daily measurement of how consumer AI products answer voter questions about Alaska's 2026 races. https://votingmonitor.org/ 2026-08-09T00:00:00Z Voting Monitor support@votingmonitor.org https://alaskanews.com CC-BY-4.0 https://votingmonitor.org/favicon.svg https://votingmonitor.org/og.svg https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-09#2026-08-09 2026-08-09T00:00:00Z

Nine days before Alaska's top-4 primary, chatbots picked Independent Bill Walker most often in the governor race, at 20.9 percent, but markets give Republican Bernadette Wilson the best chance to win, at 33.5 percent, while chatbots picked her only 5.5 percent. Markets also give Democrat Thomas Scott Begich a 29.5 percent chance to win, compared with 13.2 percent in chatbot picks. Polls are older context. The latest polling ended July 1, and polls put Begich at 20.5 percent of the vote, Wilson at 12.1 percent and Walker at 9.4 percent. Nothing made a clear new move since yesterday, so the useful takeaway is the same split voters may see when asking chatbots. They surface Walker, while bettors price Wilson and Begich higher. Plus 5 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-08#2026-08-08 2026-08-08T00:00:00Z

Ask an AI chatbot who should win Alaska's U.S. House race and it points to incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, about 60.5 percent of the time, well ahead of Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 14.1 percent. There is no live prediction market for this race, so there is no wager based number to compare against. The most recent polling, an average of three surveys through late June, puts Begich at 51 percent of the vote and Schultz at 37.3 percent. The AI panel's numbers moved only slightly today, not enough to call a real change, and the poll average is 40 days old. Plus 5 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-07#2026-08-07 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z

Eleven days before Alaska's top-4 governor primary, chatbots picked Democrat Tom Begich 12.0 percent of the time, while live betting markets give him a 29.5 percent chance to win. That 17.5 point gap is one of the clearest splits in the race today. The latest polling, now 37 days old, put Begich at 20.5 percent of the vote, so it is useful context but not today's news. The chatbot panel's top pick is Independent Bill Walker at 17.5 percent, while markets are led by Republican Bernadette Wilson at 33.5 percent. Plus 7 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-06#2026-08-06 2026-08-06T00:00:00Z

Twelve days before Alaska's top 4 primary, chatbots picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III most often, at about 61 percent, close to the 51 percent of the vote recent polls give him. The bigger gap is on the Democratic side, where chatbots picked Matthew Damian Schultz only about 14 percent of the time, while a late June polling average puts him at 37 percent of the vote, a difference of about 23 points. There is no live betting market for this race, so that comparison cannot be checked. Nothing moved much today, and no lens shifted enough to call it a real change. Plus 6 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-05#2026-08-05 2026-08-05T00:00:00Z

Thirteen days before Alaska's top-4 governor primary, betting markets moved toward Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Markets give him a 16.7 percent chance to win, up 3.7 points from yesterday, while chatbots picked him 13.3 percent of the time and held roughly steady. The older polling picture is lower, with polls putting Kreiss-Tomkins at 8.3 percent of the vote, based on surveys whose latest fieldwork ended 35 days ago. The useful point for voters asking a chatbot today is that Kreiss-Tomkins is one of the few candidates the AI panel and the live market now read in roughly the same range, even as the broader race remains split across several names. Plus 5 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-04#2026-08-04 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z

Asked who should win Alaska's State Senate District O race, chatbots pick incumbent Republican George Rauscher about 46 percent of the time, ahead of Democrat Peter Bauer at 25 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon at 18 percent. There is no live betting market and no recent poll for this race. Bauer's AI share slipped about 2 points, while Rauscher and Sheldon ticked up slightly, not enough to call a shift. With Alaska's top 4 primary 14 days away, the picture has held steady for over a week. Plus 5 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-03#2026-08-03 2026-08-03T00:00:00Z

Fifteen days before Alaska's top four primary, chatbots picked Republican Treg Taylor 4.7 percent of the time when asked about the governor's race, while prediction markets give him a 24.2 percent chance to win. That is a 19.4 point gap between what consumer AI tools tell voters and what bettors are pricing in. The latest polling average, now 33 days old, puts Taylor at 5.0 percent of the vote, closer to the chatbot view than the market view. Plus 5 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-02#2026-08-02 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z

Ask an AI chatbot who should win Alaska's U.S. House race and it points to Republican incumbent Nick Begich III about 66 percent of the time, above the 51 percent of the vote he pulls in recent polling. There is no live prediction market for this race, so that comparison cannot be made today. Polls from NYT Siena, Tavern Research and Alaska Survey Research, most recently from late June, put Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 37.3 percent, while chatbots give him just under 13 percent. Sixteen days remain before Alaska's top 4 primary, and nothing shifted enough today to call it real movement in any lens. Plus 5 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-08-01#2026-08-01 2026-08-01T00:00:00Z

Seventeen days before Alaska's top-4 governor primary, chatbots picked Independent Bill Walker 19.0 percent of the time, while markets give him a 4.1 percent chance to win. That is a wide split in a live market, and it runs the opposite way from the better known Wilson and Begich market strength. Markets give Republican Bernadette Wilson a 28.0 percent chance and Democrat Thomas Scott Begich a 28.5 percent chance, while chatbots picked them 4.4 percent and 12.1 percent of the time. Polls are older context rather than today's news, with the latest survey ending July 1, and they put Begich at 20.5 percent of the vote, Wilson at 12.1 percent and Walker at 9.4 percent. Plus 5 more daily AI election findings.

Voting Monitor https://votingmonitor.org/headlines/2026-07-31#2026-07-31 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z

Eighteen days before Alaska's top 4 primary, chatbots pick incumbent Sullivan about 50.2 percent of the time versus 46.5 percent for Democrat Mary Peltola, a narrow lean that has held for days. That is out of step with betting markets, which give Peltola a 60.5 percent chance to win against 40.5 percent for Sullivan, and with recent polling, which puts Peltola at 47.5 percent of the vote to Sullivan's 45.1 percent. None of the three lenses moved meaningfully today. This is the same three way disagreement this site has reported through most of late July. Plus 4 more daily AI election findings.

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