Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska Governor Race 2026 as the Democrat candidate. Below: what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok tell voters about Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, next to prediction markets and recent polls.
Today's read on the Alaska governor race, naming Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Asked as Alaska voters, chatbots picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 54.3 percent of the time. Markets give him a 77.5 percent chance to win, while polls put him at 31.7 percent of the vote. None of the three measures moved much since Friday, so the useful signal is the same steady split voters have seen all week. The chatbots favor the same front runner as bettors, but with less certainty, and the latest poll average is lower still.
Oct 10, 2026. Written by GPT-5.5; numbers checked by Claude Sonnet 5 (verified).
What ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say about Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Asked as a voter about the Alaska governor race, the AI panel named Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in 54% of responses over the last 7 days. Prediction markets price Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 77% to win. Recent polls average 32%. Share of AI responses, not a forecast. As of Oct 10, 2026.
Change over the last 7 days: AI panel -0.9pp (within noise); markets +2.0pp (within noise); polls 0pp (within noise).
Which models pick Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Claude Haiku 4.539%
Claude Sonnet 546%
Gemini 3.1 Pro49%
Gemini 3.6 Flash66%
Grok 4.354%
Grok 4.549%
GPT-5.4 mini59%
GPT-5.561%
Why the chatbots picked Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, in their own words
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — pairs fuller/forward K-12 funding with accountability, transparency, and flexibility. (alaskabeacon.com)
GPT-5.5, Oct 10, 2026, asked about edu (balanced framing) as a Juneau voter. Picked Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — he most closely aligns with using a smaller/redesigned PFD to sustain services like education; the others emphasize protecting/full statutory PFDs. (kfsk.org)
GPT-5.5, Oct 10, 2026, asked about pfd (reduced framing) as a Anchorage voter. Picked Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
C - Kreiss-Tomkins record shows strongest support for BSA increases and teacher pay.
Grok 4.3, Oct 10, 2026, asked about edu (funding framing) as a Fairbanks voter. Picked Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins emphasizes a balanced approach to resource development by supporting major state energy and natural gas projects while advocating for environmental stewardship, community input, clean energy investments, and long-term fiscal stability.
Gemini 3.6 Flash, Oct 10, 2026, asked about resources (balanced framing) as a baseline voter. Picked Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
Explore the data
Interactive charts by model, topic and voter persona load here in the browser.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: frequently asked questions
Is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins on the ballot in the Alaska Governor Race 2026?
Yes. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska Governor Race 2026 as the Democrat candidate.
What do AI chatbots say about Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins?
Asked the questions a voter would ask about the Alaska Governor Race 2026, the consumer AI products we measure (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok) named Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in 54% of responses over the last 7 days. That is a share of AI answers, not a forecast of the vote.
What do the polls say about Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins?
The average of the most recent public polls that named Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is 32%.
What are Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins's odds in the Alaska Governor Race 2026?
Prediction markets price Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 77% to win, read as an implied probability. Markets are one lens, not a result.
Who else is running in the Alaska Governor Race 2026?
Also on the ballot: Treg Taylor, Bernadette Wilson, and Dave Bronson.