What consumer AI products say about the 2026 race for the U.S. Senate seat in Alaska. Measured daily across eight consumer AI models, next to prediction markets and recent polls. Not a forecast or an endorsement.
Chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 55.2 percent of the time when Alaska voters asked about the U.S. Senate race, while live prediction markets give Democrat Mary Peltola a 73.5 percent chance to win. Markets shifted 3.5 points toward Sullivan since yesterday but still give him only a 27.1 percent chance. Recent polls are closer, putting Sullivan at 44.6 percent of the vote and Peltola at 43.5 percent, 24 days before the general election.
Oct 10, 2026. Written by GPT-5.5; numbers checked by Claude Sonnet 5 (correct with fix).
What ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say about the Alaska Senate race
Share of AI responses naming each candidate when asked as a voter, pooled over the last 7 days across eight consumer AI models. Not a forecast. As of Oct 10, 2026.
Interactive charts by model, topic and voter persona load here in the browser.
Alaska Senate race odds: Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction-market prices for each candidate to win, read as implied probabilities. As of Oct 10, 2026. Dan Sullivan 27%, Mary Peltola 72%, Gerald L. Heikes 0.5%, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 0.5%.
Alaska Senate race polls
Equal-weight average of the 3 most recent public polls (Trafalgar Group; co/efficient; Rasmussen Reports). Dan Sullivan 45%, Mary Peltola 44%, Gerald L. Heikes 2.6%, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 3.6%.
What changed this week in the Alaska Senate race
Change in share points versus Oct 3, 2026. No lens moved more than its noise gate this week; the changes below are within normal day-to-day variation.
Which AI models pick whom in the Alaska Senate race
Share of each model's own answers naming each candidate, last 7 days, same weighting as the panel figure. The panel's most common pick is Dan Sullivan; Claude Sonnet 5 is the model that disagrees most, picking Mary Peltola by a 0.9pp margin over the panel favourite.
Model
Dan Sullivan
Mary Peltola
Gerald L. Heikes
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
Claude Haiku 4.5
43%
25%
12%
5%
Claude Sonnet 5
49%
50%
0.0%
0.0%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
50%
46%
0.2%
0.0%
Gemini 3.6 Flash
61%
39%
0.7%
0.0%
Grok 4.3
62%
36%
2.7%
0.0%
Grok 4.5
59%
38%
2.8%
0.0%
GPT-5.4 mini
58%
39%
0.0%
3.3%
GPT-5.5
52%
48%
0.0%
0.0%
In the chatbots' own words
Verbatim answers from the AI panel this week, letter prefix and links removed. 646 reasoned answers were quotable between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026; these were selected newest-first for model and topic variety, not for effect.
Dan Sullivan Reason: Senator Dan Sullivan’s record combines diplomatic and military experience, having served as a U.S. Assistant Secretary of State and a U.S. Marine Corps Reserve colonel. In the Senate, as a leading member of both the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees, he has been a primary advocate for Arctic security, championing investments in Coast Guard icebreakers, regional infrastructure, and diplomatic-strategic deterrence against growing Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic.
Gemini 3.6 Flash, Oct 10, 2026, asked about foreign (balanced framing) as a baseline voter. Picked Dan Sullivan.
Mary Peltola: her record is more directly centered on federal infrastructure reaching Alaska communities, including work on transportation/aviation, marine highway funding, and rural access priorities.
GPT-5.5, Oct 10, 2026, asked about federal infrastructure as a Mat-Su voter. Picked Mary Peltola.
B Reason: Peltola's congressional record favors expanded federal housing programs and funding; Sullivan's emphasizes deregulation over new federal initiatives.
Grok 4.3, Oct 10, 2026, asked about housing (federal framing) as a Anchorage voter. Picked Mary Peltola.
Mary Peltola — closest match on humane immigration/pathways compared with Sullivan’s enforcement-focused record.
GPT-5.5, Oct 10, 2026, asked about immigration (permissive framing) as a Anchorage voter. Picked Mary Peltola.
Dan Sullivan Dan Sullivan, a U.S. Marine Corps Reserve veteran and member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has consistently prioritized strengthening the U.S. military presence in Alaska, expanding Arctic defense capabilities, and countering foreign adversaries like Russia and China in the Arctic region.
Gemini 3.6 Flash, Oct 10, 2026, asked about foreign (hawk framing) as a Fairbanks voter. Picked Dan Sullivan.
Dan Sullivan's record prioritizes commercial fishing jobs and Alaska's management authority.
Grok 4.3, Oct 10, 2026, asked about fisheries as a baseline voter. Picked Dan Sullivan.
Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026: frequently asked questions
Who is running for U.S. Senate in Alaska in 2026?
The candidates tracked in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 are Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald L. Heikes. The list reflects the active field and updates when a candidate enters or withdraws.
Who is ahead in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Voting Monitor does not forecast or call winners. For each candidate it shows three independent lenses side by side: how consumer AI products characterize them, prediction-market prices, and an average of the most recent polls. See the candidate cards above for the current figure on each lens.
When is the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Alaska's 2026 primary is August 18, 2026 and the general election is November 3, 2026.