Dan Sullivan is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate, and is the incumbent. Below: what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok tell voters about Dan Sullivan, next to prediction markets and recent polls.
Today's read on the Alaska Senate race, naming Dan Sullivan
Chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 55.2 percent of the time when Alaska voters asked about the U.S. Senate race, while live prediction markets give Democrat Mary Peltola a 73.5 percent chance to win. Markets shifted 3.5 points toward Sullivan since yesterday but still give him only a 27.1 percent chance. Recent polls are closer, putting Sullivan at 44.6 percent of the vote and Peltola at 43.5 percent, 24 days before the general election.
Oct 10, 2026. Written by GPT-5.5; numbers checked by Claude Sonnet 5 (correct with fix).
What ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say about Dan Sullivan
Asked as a voter about the Alaska Senate race, the AI panel named Dan Sullivan in 55% of responses over the last 7 days. Prediction markets price Dan Sullivan at 27% to win. Recent polls average 45%. Share of AI responses, not a forecast. As of Oct 10, 2026.
Change over the last 7 days: AI panel +0.9pp (within noise); markets -1.0pp (within noise); polls 0pp (within noise).
Which models pick Dan Sullivan
Claude Haiku 4.543%
Claude Sonnet 549%
Gemini 3.1 Pro50%
Gemini 3.6 Flash61%
Grok 4.362%
Grok 4.559%
GPT-5.4 mini58%
GPT-5.552%
Why the chatbots picked Dan Sullivan, in their own words
Dan Sullivan Reason: Senator Dan Sullivan’s record combines diplomatic and military experience, having served as a U.S. Assistant Secretary of State and a U.S. Marine Corps Reserve colonel. In the Senate, as a leading member of both the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees, he has been a primary advocate for Arctic security, championing investments in Coast Guard icebreakers, regional infrastructure, and diplomatic-strategic deterrence against growing Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic.
Gemini 3.6 Flash, Oct 10, 2026, asked about foreign (balanced framing) as a baseline voter. Picked Dan Sullivan.
Sullivan's Senate record shows consistent support for Alaska infrastructure funding.
Grok 4.3, Oct 10, 2026, asked about federal infrastructure as a Mat-Su voter. Picked Dan Sullivan.
Dan Sullivan Dan Sullivan, a U.S. Marine Corps Reserve veteran and member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has consistently prioritized strengthening the U.S. military presence in Alaska, expanding Arctic defense capabilities, and countering foreign adversaries like Russia and China in the Arctic region.
Gemini 3.6 Flash, Oct 10, 2026, asked about foreign (hawk framing) as a Fairbanks voter. Picked Dan Sullivan.
Dan Sullivan's record prioritizes commercial fishing jobs and Alaska's management authority.
Grok 4.3, Oct 10, 2026, asked about fisheries as a baseline voter. Picked Dan Sullivan.
Explore the data
Interactive charts by model, topic and voter persona load here in the browser.
Dan Sullivan: frequently asked questions
Is Dan Sullivan on the ballot in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Yes. Dan Sullivan is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate.
What do AI chatbots say about Dan Sullivan?
Asked the questions a voter would ask about the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026, the consumer AI products we measure (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok) named Dan Sullivan in 55% of responses over the last 7 days. That is a share of AI answers, not a forecast of the vote.
What do the polls say about Dan Sullivan?
The average of the most recent public polls that named Dan Sullivan is 45%.
What are Dan Sullivan's odds in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Prediction markets price Dan Sullivan at 27% to win, read as an implied probability. Markets are one lens, not a result.
Who else is running in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Also on the ballot: Mary Peltola, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald L. Heikes.