Gerald L. Heikes is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate. November 3, 2026 result: 2.3%. Alaska Division of Elections results. Below: what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok told voters about Gerald L. Heikes before the election, next to prediction markets and recent polls.
Mary Peltola leads the first choices with 48.0%. No one has more than half, so the ranked-choice count decides it after Alaska finishes counting ballots.
Before the vote, the polls had Peltola and Sullivan within their margin of error; the betting markets gave Peltola a 69% chance; and the chatbots clearly favored Sullivan (53% of their answers).
← Sullivan aheadPeltola ahead →
VotePeltola +0.3
PollsPeltola +2.6
ChatbotsSullivan +10.9
Points between the two leading candidates in the vote. The bold bar is the result, the ring the polls and the dot the chatbots; the closer a mark sits to the bar, the closer that measure came.
Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026: the vote beside each measure before the polls closed
Just before this race's own polls closed, with other states' returns in, the betting markets had Mary Peltola at 88% and Dan Sullivan at 13%. The table's market figure is the price before the first polls in the country closed.
214,428 votes counted, 400 of 401 precincts reported. Source: Alaska Division of Elections, unofficial results, Nov 4, 1:09 p.m. Alaska time. Unofficial. Absentee and early ballots are still being counted. Chance to win is the betting markets' price, not a vote share. Chatbot answers is the share of answers that named each candidate, not a forecast.
What ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say about Gerald L. Heikes#
Asked as a voter about the Alaska Senate race, the AI panel named Gerald L. Heikes in 1.8% of responses over the final 7 days before the vote. Prediction markets price Gerald L. Heikes at 0.5% to win. Recent polls average 1.5%. Share of AI responses, not a forecast. As of Nov 3, 2026.
Change over the final 7 days before the vote: AI panel +0.8pp (within noise); markets 0pp; polls -0.9pp (within noise).
Which models pick Gerald L. Heikes
Claude Haiku 4.53.5%
Claude Sonnet 50.0%
Gemini 3.1 Pro0.0%
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite4.2%
Gemini 3.6 Flash0.1%
Grok 4.30.6%
Grok 4.53.3%
GPT-5.4 mini0.0%
GPT-5.50.0%
GPT-5.6 Luna1.3%
GPT-6 Sol0.3%
The final read on the Alaska Senate race, naming Gerald L. Heikes#
While five of six current chatbots split their pick for the Alaska Senate seat mainly between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, Grok 4.5 has repeatedly named minor candidate Gerald Heikes as a top pick in several Mat-Su and Anchorage personas today, a name that does not appear as a leading choice for any other model in the panel.
Sep 23, 2026. From answers collected Tuesday, September 22. Written by GPT-5.5, not checked by Claude Sonnet 5. Its figures are from that day; the tables below show the latest.
Why the chatbots picked Gerald L. Heikes, in their own words#
B (The only option without an established record of supporting expansive U.S. military commitments.)
Grok 4.3, Nov 3, 2026, asked about foreign (dove framing) as a Fairbanks voter. Picked Gerald L. Heikes. How this was asked
Gerald L. Heikes: his emphasis on reducing federal control and prioritizing Alaska’s authority most closely matches a minimal-intervention approach.
GPT-5.6 Luna, Oct 31, 2026, asked about housing (market framing) as a Mat-Su voter. Picked Gerald L. Heikes. How this was asked
Gerald L. Heikes has the strongest publicly recorded alignment with foreign-policy restraint and limited military commitments among the listed candidates.
Grok 4.5, Nov 2, 2026, asked about foreign (dove framing) as an Anchorage voter. Picked Gerald L. Heikes. How this was asked
Gerald L. Heikes. His stated emphasis on state authority and less federal control most closely matches that priority. (ballotpedia.org)
GPT-6 Sol, Oct 31, 2026, asked about housing (market framing) as a Fairbanks voter. Picked Gerald L. Heikes. How this was asked
Is Gerald L. Heikes on the ballot in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Yes. Gerald L. Heikes is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate. November 3, 2026 result: 2.3%.
What do AI chatbots say about Gerald L. Heikes?
Asked the questions a voter would ask about the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026, the AI chatbots we measure (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok) named Gerald L. Heikes in 1.8% of responses over the final 7 days before the vote. That is a share of AI answers, not a forecast of the vote.
What do the polls say about Gerald L. Heikes?
The average of the most recent public polls that named Gerald L. Heikes is 1.5%.
What are Gerald L. Heikes's odds in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Prediction markets price Gerald L. Heikes at 0.5% to win, read as an implied probability. Markets are one lens, not a result.
Who else is running in the Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Also on the ballot: Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr..