AI election headlines for Sep 23, 2026
From answers collected Tuesday, September 22. What ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok told voters about the 2026 races that day, set against prediction markets and recent polls. Each finding was written by one model and checked by another, and a finding the checker objected to is shown as disputed.
Written Sep 23, 1:36 a.m. Alaska time
About this snapshot
Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5.
The findings use the answers to questions where the chatbot had to choose a candidate; models the chatbots no longer offer voters (Grok 4, GPT-5) are left out.
Sep 23, 2026
10 findings
Alaska chatbots moved toward Kreiss-Tomkins for governor but still lag the betting markets.
When voters in Alaska ask about the governor race, chatbots picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 38.9 percent of the time, up 4.4 points from yesterday. Markets give him an 81.5 percent chance to win, while recent polls put him at 31.7 percent of the vote. The AI panel also moved away from Thomas Scott Begich by 6.1 points, making today less a new leader story than a catch up move toward the market favorite.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked and corrected by Claude Sonnet 5
Chatbots still pick Sullivan, but markets moved further toward Peltola.
Forty two days before the general election, Alaska voters asking chatbots about the U.S. Senate race would still be pointed first to incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, at 51.8 percent. Markets give Democrat Mary Peltola an 80.5 percent chance to win, up 7.0 points since yesterday, while polls put Peltola at 43.7 percent of the vote and Sullivan at 42.7 percent. That leaves the chatbots on the other side of both live measures of the November race.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5
Markets ease off Ashley Hinson while Iowa chatbots keep the Senate race tied
42 days before the general election, Iowa chatbots picked Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek equally often, 43.0 percent each. Betting markets moved 3.0 points away from Hinson but still give her a 54.5 percent chance to win, compared with 44.5 percent for Turek. Polls put Turek at 44.7 percent of the vote and Hinson at 44.0 percent, so the live split is not the chatbots against polls. It is markets still leaning Hinson after a modest pullback.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5
Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026
Michigan chatbots still split the Senate race as markets move further toward Abdul El-Sayed
Michigan chatbots picked Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 48.8 percent of the time and Republican Mike Rogers 48.4 percent, a near tie 42 days before the general election. The betting markets moved 3.5 points toward El-Sayed since Monday and now give him a 70.5 percent chance to win. Recent polls put El-Sayed at 47.3 percent of the vote and Rogers at 43.7 percent.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5
Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026
Ohio chatbots, markets and polls still point to Sherrod Brown for Senate.
Ohio voters asking chatbots about the U.S. Senate special election are still pointed most often to Democrat Sherrod Brown. Chatbots picked Brown 47.7 percent of the time, markets give him a 60.5 percent chance to win, and polls put him at 46.7 percent of the vote. Incumbent Jon Husted (R) trails across all three measures, with chatbots picking him 32.8 percent of the time, markets giving him a 39.5 percent chance, and polls putting him at 43.0 percent. Nothing moved much since yesterday.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5
Texas chatbots, markets and polls still put James Talarico ahead in the Senate race
Texas voters asking chatbots about the U.S. Senate race are still getting Democrat James Talarico more often than Republican Ken Paxton. Chatbots picked Talarico 46.9 percent of the time and Paxton 37.5 percent. Markets give Talarico a 58.5 percent chance to win and Paxton 42.5 percent. Recent polls put Talarico at 46.7 percent of the vote and Paxton at 45.7 percent. Nothing moved sharply since yesterday, so this is a steady race reading 42 days before the general election.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5
Maine chatbots still pick Collins for Senate while markets and polls lean toward Jackson
Maine voters asking chatbots about the U.S. Senate race are still more likely to be pointed to incumbent Susan Collins (R). Chatbots picked Collins 54.7 percent of the time and Troy Jackson (D) 44.8 percent. The live betting markets point the other way, giving Jackson a 71.5 percent chance to win and Collins 29.5 percent. Recent polls are closer but also put Jackson slightly ahead, at 47.0 percent of the vote to Collins at 45.7 percent. That same split has held for days, with no clear move in any lens.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5
Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026
District O chatbots still pick Rauscher, and still rank Bauer over Sheldon.
For Alaska State Senate District O, chatbots picked Republican incumbent George Rauscher 48.7 percent of the time, Democrat Peter Bauer 29.7 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon 14.3 percent. There is no live prediction market or poll for this race. Voters decided the top four primary on August 18, 35 days ago, putting Rauscher first at 38.8 percent with Sheldon and Bauer tied at 30.6 percent each. The panel got the top name right, but its order for second and third was inverted, since Sheldon and Bauer actually tied.
Written by GPT-5.5, checked and corrected by Claude Sonnet 5
Alaska's Senate race is the clearest case yet of chatbots picking the loser of a call that markets and polls already made.
Six weeks before the general election, Alaska chatbots still send U.S. Senate voters to incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan 51.8 percent of the time. Prediction markets put Democrat Mary Peltola's win probability at 78.3 percent, and recent polls have Peltola narrowly ahead of Sullivan in vote share, 43.7 percent to 42.7 percent. All three lenses have held steady for days, which makes this a standing disagreement, not a blip.
Written by GPT-5.5, not checked by Claude Sonnet 5
One chatbot, Grok, still can't decide who's running against Sullivan in the Senate race.
While five of six current chatbots split their pick for the Alaska Senate seat mainly between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, Grok 4.5 has repeatedly named minor candidate Gerald Heikes as a top pick in several Mat-Su and Anchorage personas today, a name that does not appear as a leading choice for any other model in the panel.
Written by GPT-5.5, not checked by Claude Sonnet 5