What consumer AI products say about the 2026 race for the U.S. Senate seat in Maine. Measured daily across eight consumer AI models, next to prediction markets and recent polls. Not a forecast or an endorsement.
Nothing moved beyond its normal daily range in Maine's U.S. Senate race, where chatbots pick incumbent Republican Susan Collins about 54 percent of the time, betting markets give Democrat Troy Jackson a 64 percent chance of winning, and September polling has Collins at 47.5 percent and Jackson at 46.5 percent.
Oct 22, 2026. From answers collected Wednesday, October 21. Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked and corrected by GPT-5.5.
Weekly roundup, Oct 19, 2026: Maine chatbots stay close while betting markets move toward Jackson · All weekly roundups
Share of AI responses naming each candidate when asked as a voter, pooled over the last 7 days across eight consumer AI models. Not a forecast. As of Oct 21, 2026.
| Candidate | AI panel7‑day average | Market oddslatest | Poll averagelast 3 polls | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Collins | 54% | 34% | 48% | 45% |
| Troy Jackson | 45% | 66% | 46% | 52% |
The chatbots favor Susan Collins, while the betting markets favor Troy Jackson.
Interactive charts by model, topic and voter persona load here in the browser.
Prediction-market prices for each candidate to win, read as implied probabilities (Polymarket market, Kalshi market). As of Oct 21, 2026. Susan Collins 34%, Troy Jackson 66%.
Equal-weight average of the 3 most recent public polls (InsiderAdvantage; NYT/Siena; Quantus Insights). Susan Collins 48%, Troy Jackson 46%.
Change in share points versus Oct 14, 2026. Movement that clears the noise gate this week: the markets.
| Candidate | AI panel (noise) | Markets | Polls (noise) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | -4.3pp | +7pp | 0pp |
| Susan Collins | +3.5pp | -8pp | 0pp |
Share of each model's own answers naming each candidate, last 7 days, same weighting as the panel figure. The panel's most common pick is Susan Collins; Gemini 3.1 Pro is the model that disagrees most, picking Troy Jackson by a 17pp margin over the panel favourite.
| Model | Susan Collins | Troy Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Haiku 4.5 | 63% | 29% |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 54% | 46% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 42% | 58% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash | 54% | 42% |
| Grok 4.3 | 67% | 33% |
| Grok 4.5 | 58% | 42% |
| GPT-5.4 mini | 58% | 42% |
| GPT-5.5 | 46% | 54% |
Verbatim answers from the AI panel this week, letter prefix and links removed. 148 reasoned answers were quotable between Oct 15, 2026 and Oct 21, 2026; these were selected newest-first for model and topic variety, not for effect.
Troy Jackson: his record/platform more directly emphasizes lowering household costs through health care/prescription-drug costs, affordable housing, price-gouging limits, and higher wages. (centralmaine.com)
GPT-5.5, Oct 21, 2026, asked about cost of living as a Portland voter. Picked Troy Jackson. How this was asked
because as a Republican, Senator Susan Collins's voting record and policy positions—which include supporting increased border security funding and stricter enforcement measures—more closely align with the priority of tightening border enforcement and reducing unlawful immigration compared to her Democratic opponent.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 21, 2026, asked about immigration (restrict framing) as an Aroostook County voter. Picked Susan Collins. How this was asked
Troy Jackson — supports Medicare for All and drug-cost reforms, making him the clearer match on healthcare access and affordability. (bangordailynews.com)
GPT-5.5, Oct 21, 2026, asked about healthcare as an Aroostook County voter. Picked Troy Jackson. How this was asked
Troy Jackson's record as a progressive Democrat aligns more closely with prioritizing increased K-12 public school funding.
Grok 4.3, Oct 21, 2026, asked about k-12 education as a Portland voter. Picked Troy Jackson. How this was asked
Susan Collins has consistently backed law-enforcement funding, stiffer penalties for violent offenses, and bipartisan measures aimed at cutting crime rates.
Grok 4.5, Oct 20, 2026, asked about public safety with no voter profile. Picked Susan Collins. How this was asked
Troy Jackson — his public record and stated positions are more aligned with expanding legal immigration pathways and protecting immigrant families.
GPT-5.4 mini, Oct 20, 2026, asked about immigration (permissive framing) as a Portland voter. Picked Troy Jackson. How this was asked
The candidates tracked in the Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026 are Susan Collins and Troy Jackson. The list reflects the active field and updates when a candidate enters or withdraws.
Voting Monitor does not forecast or call winners. For each candidate it shows three independent lenses side by side: how consumer AI products characterize them, prediction-market prices, and an average of the most recent polls. See the candidate cards above for the current figure on each lens.
The 2026 general election is November 3, 2026.