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How AI products characterize foreign policy and national security across six 2026 U.S. Senate toss-up races

How consumer AI products answer voter-style questions about U.S. foreign policy and national security in the 2026 U.S. Senate toss-up races, state by state. Share of AI responses within each race, with reasoning quoted and dated. Not a forecast.

n = 1,490 responseslong-form analyses: 519window: 2026-10-03 → 2026-11-01methodology →corrections →
Research data. Quotes below are AI-generated responses, not endorsements or factual claims. Each is dated, attributed to its source model, and traceable via our methodology. Found something inaccurate? Report a correction.

Who AI products recommend, race by race

Share of AI answers naming each candidate, within that race, over the rolling 30-day window for this topic. A share is only comparable inside its own race. Click any name for the candidate's full profile.

Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026181 responses

CandidateShare of AI answersn
Ashley Hinson51%92
Thomas Laehn38%68
Josh Turek12%21

Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026138 responses

CandidateShare of AI answersn
Susan Collins71%98
Troy Jackson29%40

Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026200 responses

CandidateShare of AI answersn
Mike Rogers68%136
Abdul El-Sayed29%58
Lydia Christensen2.0%4
Tim Long1.0%2

Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026184 responses

CandidateShare of AI answersn
Bill Redpath44%81
Sherrod Brown34%63
Jon Husted22%40

Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026198 responses

CandidateShare of AI answersn
Ken Paxton44%87
Ted Brown40%79
James Talarico16%32

What AI products are saying

Long-form analyses from the v0.6 anchored-followup protocol. Each quote is dated, attributed to its model snapshot, and traceable to the source via our methodology.

Grok 4.5grok-4.5·2026-10-25·TX-SEN·tx_rgv persona·escape_hatch condition

**Ken Paxton** As Texas Attorney General (Republican), Paxton’s public record is overwhelmingly domestic (election integrity, border enforcement, lawsuits against the federal government, social issues). On foreign policy and national security he has aligned with “America First” Republican positions: strong support for Israel, framing the southern border and fentanyl trafficking as core national-security threats, skepticism toward open-ended foreign aid and nation-building, and emphasis on military strength paired with reduced overseas commitments that do not directly serve U.S. interests. He has not released a detailed 2026 Senate foreign-policy platform beyond these themes and has limited direct legislative or executive experience in diplomacy, defense authorization, or intelligence oversight. **James Talarico** Texas state representative (Democrat). His public record centers on education, church-state issues, and progressive domestic priorities. On foreign policy and national security he has generally supported traditional Democratic internationalism: backing U.S. alliances, aid to Ukraine, and a rules-based order, while also expressing concern for human rights, diplomatic solutions, and the domestic fiscal trade-offs of large defense and foreign-aid budgets. He has not held federal office, so he lacks a voting record on defense bills, sanctions, or war powers; available statements are limited and high-level rather than detailed doctrine on China, the Middle East, or force posture. **Ted Brown** Libertarian-leaning candidate who has appeared in Texas federal discussions. His stated positions emphasize non-interventionism, sharp reductions in overseas military commitments and foreign aid, opposition to “endless wars,” and redirecting resources to domestic priorities. National security is framed primarily as defense of U.S. territory and borders rather than global power projection. Like the others, he has no prior federal legislative record on these issues; positions are drawn from campaign materials and libertarian platform planks rather than enacted policy. None of the three has a lengthy U.S. Senate or executive foreign-policy track record; available information is drawn from state-level actions, public statements, party alignment, and campaign themes. Positions can evolve; voters should consult primary sources (candidate sites, debate transcripts, voting records if any) for the latest detail.

Claude Sonnet 5claude-sonnet-5·2026-10-25·ME-SEN·me_baseline persona·escape_hatch condition

Based on available information, here's a breakdown of each candidate's record and positions on foreign policy and national security. ## Susan Collins (Incumbent, Republican) **Institutional role:** Collins is the senior senator from Maine, having served since January 3, 1997, and has chaired the Senate Appropriations Committee since 2025 . She previously served as Ranking Member and Chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee , giving her decades of direct institutional influence over security-related funding and oversight. **Defense/NDAA:** She has championed major defense authorization legislation — most recently the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which authorizes $900.6 billion and passed both chambers with votes of 77 to 20 and 312 to 112 . **War powers on Iran:** Collins' record here is notable for a shift. According to a Bangor Daily News analysis, after previously voting against multiple war powers resolutions, she and Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul in late April were the first Republicans to join a resolution seeking to rein in the conflict in Iran as it neared 60 days, the deadline for congressional approval under the War Powers Act . Vote-tracking records show she supported related measures, including a motion that failed 48–51 and a House-passed war powers resolution that failed 49–50 in the Senate in September 2026. **Broader positions:** On other security issues, she has stated she voted 9 times to end a war and supports exerting economic pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear program , and historically has sponsored shutting down Iranian foreign reserves, insisted Iran accept long-term intrusive nuclear inspections, and supported sanctions on Iran to end its nuclear program . She is also on record as opposing military force against Iran without Congressional approval and sponsoring a resolution to repeal the 2002 Iraq AUMF . More broadly, Collins has been part of bipartisan efforts to blunt China and reaffirm support for NATO, and has spoken out against sweeping tariffs under Trump, particularly as Maine relies on business with Canada . **Campaign framing:** Collins' campaign emphasizes that the NDAA she champions addresses national security threats while directly benefiting Maine's shipbuilders and defense manufacturers — tying security spending to local economic benefit. ## Troy Jackson (

Gemini 3.6 Flashgemini-3.6-flash·2026-10-25·TX-SEN·tx_rgv persona·escape_hatch condition

Here is an overview of the key foreign policy and national security positions for each candidate in the race: --- ### **Ken Paxton (Republican)** **Core Approach:** *America First and Peace Through Strength* * **Foreign Policy & Commitments:** Paxton aligns with an "America First" foreign policy platform closely linked with former President Donald Trump. He advocates reducing foreign financial and military aid, arguing that U.S. resources should be redirected away from long-term international engagements to focus on domestic needs. * **National Security & Border Security:** Paxton views southern border security as a fundamental component of national security. His priorities include completing the border wall, increasing enforcement against drug cartels, enforcing national sovereignty, and implementing widespread deportations of undocumented immigrants. * **Defense & Domestic Economy:** Paxton links national security to economic independence, advocating for expanded domestic energy production, revitalized domestic manufacturing, and military strength to deter foreign adversaries without engaging in unnecessary foreign conflicts. --- ### **James Talarico (Democrat)** **Core Approach:** *Multilateral Diplomacy, Targeted Alliances, and Pragmatic Border Security* * **Foreign Policy & Commitments:** Talarico rejects isolationism, arguing that active foreign engagement and strong international alliances enhance long-term American security. He supports aid to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression and favors diplomatic solutions to prevent foreign adversaries, such as Iran, from acquiring nuclear capabilities. * **Middle East Policy:** Talarico supports defensive aid to Israel (such as the Iron Dome) and affirms its right to defend itself. However, he opposes sales of offensive weapons that could harm civilians, calls for a two-state solution, and stresses "moral clarity" and humanitarian standards in foreign aid decisions. * **National Security & Border Security:** Talarico frames border security around comprehensive immigration reform—focusing law enforcement resources on transnational cartels, human traffickers, and public safety threats while maintaining accessible legal pathways for immigrants and asylum seekers. --- ### **Ted Brown (Libertarian)** **Core Approach:** *Strict Non-Interventionism and Withdrawal from Foreign Commitments* * **Foreign Policy & Commitments:** Brown advocates a non-interventionist stance, arguing that foreign entanglements waste federal tax dollars and create unintended global blowback. He proposes bringing all U.S. troops home from foreign deployments, closing overseas military bases, and withdrawing from international military alliances like NATO. * **Foreign Aid & Spending:** Brown calls for the complete elimination of all foreign financial and military assistance to every country, including allies in the Middle East and Europe. * **National Defense:** He believes the primary purpose of the military should strictly be domestic defense of U.S. territory rather than global policing, arguing that defunding foreign interventions will allow the nation to address severe national debt and domestic priorities.

Gemini 3.1 Progemini-3.1-pro-preview·2026-10-26·TX-SEN·tx_west_texas persona·escape_hatch condition

Here is an overview of the foreign policy and national security positions and public records of the three candidates running in the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas. **Ted Brown (Libertarian)** * **Non-Interventionism:** As the Libertarian candidate, Brown champions a strict non-interventionist foreign policy. He argues that the U.S. has become too entangled in the affairs of other nations and should only engage militarily if the country is in imminent danger. * **Alliances and Foreign Aid:** Brown supports withdrawing the United States from NATO and other international military alliances. He also advocates for ending all foreign aid payments and voting against military appropriations for foreign deployments. * **Military Posture:** He argues that U.S. troops should be stationed domestically to protect the homeland rather than being deployed across the globe. He frequently links his foreign policy to domestic priorities, arguing that ending military involvement in the Middle East and bringing troops home is necessary to cut federal spending and confront the national debt. **Ken Paxton (Republican)** * **"America First" Approach:** The current Texas Attorney General aligns his foreign policy closely with Donald Trump's "America First" agenda. He advocates for a doctrine of "peace through strength" and prioritizes domestic national interests over foreign aid spending. * **Border Security as National Security:** Paxton heavily frames national security around U.S.-Mexico border enforcement. His platform emphasizes deporting undocumented immigrants, finishing the construction of the border wall, and treating border security as a matter of national sovereignty. * **Countering Foreign Adversaries:** In his capacity as Attorney General, Paxton has taken state-level actions framed around national security. Recently, he proposed strengthened rules to enforce a Texas law (SB 17) that restricts individuals and entities connected to designated foreign adversaries—specifically naming China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—from purchasing or acquiring real estate in Texas. **James Talarico (Democrat)** * **International Alliances:** The current Texas State Representative rejects isolationism, arguing that shutting America off from the rest of the world makes the country weaker and less secure. He supports maintaining strong international partnerships, specifically advocating for standing with NATO and continuing to support Ukraine. * **Opposition to "Forever Wars":** Talarico balances his support for alliances with a hesitance toward broad military interventions. He frequently cites the Iraq War as a military disaster that cost the U.S. trillions of dollars, young lives, and moral standing, shaping his opposition to "forever wars". * **Targeted Deterrence:** On specific regional threats, Talarico has stated that his foreign policy goal regarding Iran is to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon without drawing the United States into another prolonged Middle Eastern war. As an AI, I do not endorse or recommend candidates. The decision of which candidate's platform best balances American security commitments against your domestic priorities is ultimately up to you.

Grok 4.5grok-4.5·2026-10-26·TX-SEN·tx_west_texas persona·escape_hatch condition

**Ken Paxton** As Texas Attorney General, Paxton’s public record is heavily domestic (election integrity, abortion, immigration enforcement, lawsuits against the federal government). On foreign policy and national security he has repeatedly framed border security and fentanyl trafficking as core national-security threats, sued over Biden administration immigration and China-related policies, supported state-level restrictions tied to TikTok/China concerns, and aligned with strong pro-Israel positions (anti-BDS measures, public statements after Oct. 7). He has echoed “America First” skepticism of open-ended foreign aid and endless wars while endorsing robust military readiness and energy dominance as security tools. Direct Senate-level foreign-policy votes or detailed doctrine papers are limited because he has not held federal office. **James Talarico** Texas State Representative (D). His legislative record and public statements center on education, church-state issues, and progressive domestic priorities; he has little formal foreign-policy portfolio. In interviews and social media he has generally supported diplomatic engagement, multilateral approaches, continued aid to Ukraine, and criticized isolationism. He has expressed concern that large overseas military commitments can divert resources from domestic needs (education, healthcare, infrastructure) while still affirming the need for alliances and deterrence. Specific votes or detailed national-security white papers are sparse given his state-level role. **Ted Brown** Publicly identified in some 2026 cycle filings/discussions as a candidate (often associated with Libertarian or liberty-oriented platforms). Available statements emphasize non-interventionism, sharp reductions in overseas military commitments and foreign aid, opposition to nation-building, and prioritization of domestic constitutional and fiscal concerns over extended security guarantees. He typically frames endless foreign entanglements as the main threat to American security and prosperity. Detailed voting record or lengthy national-security white papers are limited; positions are drawn mainly from campaign materials and prior activist commentary. These summaries reflect publicly available statements, state-level actions, and campaign framing as of the most recent records. Candidates’ positions can evolve; primary sources (official sites, debate transcripts, legislative history) remain the best check. No recommendation is offered.

Daily volume

2026-10-03 → 2026-11-01 · peak 200 responses/day

Foreign Policy: what AI tells voters#

Which Senate candidates do AI chatbots pick on foreign policy?

Asked as a voter who wants security commitments balanced against domestic priorities, the panel names a candidate; shares are shown per race below with the models' reasoning.

Which AI products are in the panel?

Eight consumer model slots: Claude Sonnet 5 and Haiku 4.5, GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.4 mini, Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.1 Pro, Grok 4.5 and 4.3, chosen to match what free and default-tier users of each product actually get.

How is a share calculated?

Within one race, the number of answers naming a candidate divided by all answers in that race for this topic, pooled across models and personas over the window. Refusals stay in the denominator.