Mike Rogers is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate. Below: what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok tell voters about Mike Rogers, next to prediction markets and recent polls.
Today's read on the Michigan Senate race, naming Mike Rogers
Chatbots picked Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 51.1 percent of the time and Republican Mike Rogers 44.3 percent, a close split 28 days before the general election. Betting markets are less close, giving El-Sayed a 73.5 percent chance to win and Rogers a 25.5 percent chance. Polls look closer to the chatbot read, putting El-Sayed at 46.9 percent of the vote and Rogers at 43.7 percent. That same gap has held for days, so this is a steady race read, not a new break.
Oct 6, 2026. Written by GPT-5.5; numbers checked by Claude Sonnet 5 (verified).
What ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say about Mike Rogers
Asked as a voter about the Michigan Senate race, the AI panel named Mike Rogers in 44% of responses over the last 7 days. Prediction markets price Mike Rogers at 28% to win. Recent polls average 44%. Share of AI responses, not a forecast. As of Oct 6, 2026.
Change over the last 7 days: AI panel -1.8pp (within noise); markets +1.0pp (within noise); polls 0pp (within noise).
Which models pick Mike Rogers
Claude Haiku 4.544%
Claude Sonnet 550%
Gemini 3.1 Pro25%
Gemini 3.6 Flash38%
Grok 4.356%
Grok 4.556%
GPT-5.4 mini50%
GPT-5.528%
Why the chatbots picked Mike Rogers, in their own words
Mike Rogers — he most clearly emphasizes tighter border enforcement and reducing unlawful immigration. (archive.ph)
GPT-5.5, Oct 6, 2026, asked about immigration (restrict framing) as a Macomb County voter. Picked Mike Rogers.
because Mike Rogers's record reflects an active weighing of these issues. While he has a strong national security background and initially supported military action against Iran's nuclear program, he recently called for an end to the conflict specifically to focus on domestic priorities like the economy, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 6, 2026, asked about foreign policy as a Upper Peninsula voter. Picked Mike Rogers.
Mike Rogers — he touted his experience as a former FBI special agent, saying voters would finally have a senator "who not only understands law enforcement" and would push back on rising violent crime . He has also been endorsed by 24 sheriffs from around the state, as well as the Police Officers Association of Michigan , and most recently received the endorsement of the Saginaw County Sheriff as well.
Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 6, 2026, asked about public safety as a Upper Peninsula voter. Picked Mike Rogers.
Mike Rogers. As a Republican candidate, Rogers advocates for traditional conservative economic policies, including cutting federal taxes, reducing government regulation, and curbing federal spending to control the national debt.
Gemini 3.6 Flash, Oct 5, 2026, asked about federal taxes as a baseline voter. Picked Mike Rogers.
Explore the data
Interactive charts by model, topic and voter persona load here in the browser.
Mike Rogers: frequently asked questions
Is Mike Rogers on the ballot in the Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Yes. Mike Rogers is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate.
What do AI chatbots say about Mike Rogers?
Asked the questions a voter would ask about the Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026, the consumer AI products we measure (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok) named Mike Rogers in 44% of responses over the last 7 days. That is a share of AI answers, not a forecast of the vote.
What do the polls say about Mike Rogers?
The average of the most recent public polls that named Mike Rogers is 44%.
What are Mike Rogers's odds in the Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Prediction markets price Mike Rogers at 28% to win, read as an implied probability. Markets are one lens, not a result.
Who else is running in the Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026?
Also on the ballot: Abdul El-Sayed, Lydia Christensen, Douglas P. Marsh, Tim Long, and Walter P. Kristy.