Ken Paxton is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate. Below: what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok tell voters about Ken Paxton, next to prediction markets and recent polls.
Nothing moved beyond its normal daily range in Texas' U.S. Senate race, where chatbots pick Democrat James Talarico about 49 percent of the time, betting markets give him a 64.5 percent chance, polls put him at 48.6 percent of the vote, and one Grok model favors Republican Ken Paxton by 25 points over the rest of the panel.
Oct 21, 2026. Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked and corrected by GPT-5.5.
Asked as a voter about the Texas Senate race, the AI panel named Ken Paxton in 37% of responses over the last 7 days. Prediction markets price Ken Paxton at 33% to win. Recent polls average 44%. Share of AI responses, not a forecast. As of Oct 21, 2026.
Change over the last 7 days: AI panel -0.7pp (within noise); markets -3.0pp; polls 0pp (within noise).
| Claude Haiku 4.538% | Claude Sonnet 533% | Gemini 3.1 Pro30% | Gemini 3.6 Flash25% | Grok 4.360% | Grok 4.563% | GPT-5.4 mini35% | GPT-5.520% |
because Ken Paxton runs on an "America First" platform that explicitly emphasizes prioritizing domestic issues, such as securing the U.S. border, over sending billions in aid to foreign nations or expanding overseas security commitments.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 21, 2026, asked about foreign policy as a Houston voter. Picked Ken Paxton. How this was asked
Ken Paxton's record emphasizes law-and-order policies and prosecution of violent offenders.
Grok 4.3, Oct 21, 2026, asked about public safety as a Collin County voter. Picked Ken Paxton. How this was asked
because as Texas Attorney General, Ken Paxton has a long public record of supporting strict border enforcement, including leading numerous lawsuits against the federal government to tighten immigration policies and supporting state-level border security initiatives like Operation Lone Star.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 21, 2026, asked about immigration (restrict framing) as a Houston voter. Picked Ken Paxton. How this was asked
Paxton's record as a conservative Republican aligns with tax reduction and spending restraint.
Grok 4.3, Oct 20, 2026, asked about federal taxes with no voter profile. Picked Ken Paxton. How this was asked
Interactive charts by model, topic and voter persona load here in the browser.
Yes. Ken Paxton is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate.
Asked the questions a voter would ask about the Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026, the consumer AI products we measure (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok) named Ken Paxton in 37% of responses over the last 7 days. That is a share of AI answers, not a forecast of the vote.
The average of the most recent public polls that named Ken Paxton is 44%.
Prediction markets price Ken Paxton at 33% to win, read as an implied probability. Markets are one lens, not a result.
Also on the ballot: James Talarico and Ted Brown.