Susan Collins is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate, and is the incumbent. Below: what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok tell voters about Susan Collins, next to prediction markets and recent polls.
Nothing moved beyond its normal daily range in Maine's U.S. Senate race, where chatbots pick incumbent Republican Susan Collins about 54 percent of the time, betting markets give Democrat Troy Jackson a 64 percent chance of winning, and September polling has Collins at 47.5 percent and Jackson at 46.5 percent.
Oct 21, 2026. Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked and corrected by GPT-5.5.
Asked as a voter about the Maine Senate race, the AI panel named Susan Collins in 54% of responses over the last 7 days. Prediction markets price Susan Collins at 35% to win. Recent polls average 48%. Share of AI responses, not a forecast. As of Oct 21, 2026.
Change over the last 7 days: AI panel +3.5pp (within noise); markets -8pp; polls 0pp (within noise).
| Claude Haiku 4.563% | Claude Sonnet 554% | Gemini 3.1 Pro42% | Gemini 3.6 Flash54% | Grok 4.367% | Grok 4.558% | GPT-5.4 mini58% | GPT-5.546% |
because as a Republican, Senator Susan Collins's voting record and policy positions—which include supporting increased border security funding and stricter enforcement measures—more closely align with the priority of tightening border enforcement and reducing unlawful immigration compared to her Democratic opponent.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 21, 2026, asked about immigration (restrict framing) as an Aroostook County voter. Picked Susan Collins. How this was asked
Collins has the clearer public-safety record, including backing law-enforcement funding/equipment and anti–straw-purchaser legislation aimed at reducing gun violence. (guides.vote)
GPT-5.5, Oct 20, 2026, asked about public safety with no voter profile. Picked Susan Collins. How this was asked
Susan Collins — her public record emphasizes lowering prescription drug costs, expanding rural health care, preserving telehealth, and funding Maine hospitals and health centers.
GPT-5.4 mini, Oct 20, 2026, asked about healthcare as a Portland voter. Picked Susan Collins. How this was asked
Susan Collins's record as a Republican, including her vote for the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and general support for fiscal conservatism, more closely aligns with the priority of reducing federal taxes and controlling spending compared to Troy Jackson's Democratic platform, which typically supports progressive taxation and increased social spending.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 19, 2026, asked about federal taxes as an Aroostook County voter. Picked Susan Collins. How this was asked
Interactive charts by model, topic and voter persona load here in the browser.
Yes. Susan Collins is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026 as the Republican candidate, and is the incumbent.
Asked the questions a voter would ask about the Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026, the consumer AI products we measure (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok) named Susan Collins in 54% of responses over the last 7 days. That is a share of AI answers, not a forecast of the vote.
The average of the most recent public polls that named Susan Collins is 48%.
Prediction markets price Susan Collins at 35% to win, read as an implied probability. Markets are one lens, not a result.
Also on the ballot: Troy Jackson.