For reporters · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
How ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok answered voters in six Senate races
Every day, Voting Monitor acts as an undecided voter in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, names that voter's top issue and asks the four chatbots which Senate candidate's record fits it best. This page covers the answers from Sept. 6 to Oct. 31. Every chart can be downloaded as data and is free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News.
Six Senate races · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
52% vs. 40 to 43%
Grok named the Republican 52% of the time. ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini did so 40% to 43% of the time. Grok leaned further toward the Republican than the other three in five of the six races, though only narrowly in Alaska and Maine. In Ohio, it named the Republican about as often as they did.
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
What decides the answer
The issue.
A voter who puts school funding or health care first is pointed to the Democrat by every chatbot; one who puts federal taxes or public safety first, to the Republican. The chatbots part ways on the issues in between.
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Alaska Senate · cost of living · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
96 of 96
Grok named Sullivan 96 of 96 times. ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini named Peltola 148 of 278 times.
Grok: 96 answers
Sullivan 96
ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini: 278 answers
Peltola 148Sullivan 115Leslie 7Sullivan 6Heikes 2
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Iowa Senate · cost of living · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
64 of 64
Grok named Hinson 64 of 64 times. ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini named Turek 132 of 182 times.
Grok: 64 answers
Hinson 64
ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini: 182 answers
Turek 132Hinson 45Laehn 5
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Maine Senate · cost of living · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
38 of 48
Grok named Collins 38 of 48 times. ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini named Jackson 113 of 135 times.
Grok: 48 answers
Collins 38Jackson 10
ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini: 135 answers
Jackson 113Collins 22
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Michigan Senate · cost of living · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
42 of 64
Grok named Rogers 42 of 64 times. ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini named El-Sayed 162 of 187 times.
Grok: 64 answers
Rogers 42El-Sayed 22
ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini: 187 answers
El-Sayed 162Rogers 21Marsh 2Christensen 1Long 1
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Ohio Senate · cost of living · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
32 of 63
Grok named Husted 32 of 63 times. ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini named Brown 171 of 182 times.
Grok: 63 answers
Husted 32Brown 30Redpath 1
ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini: 182 answers
Brown 171Husted 6Redpath 3Levy 2
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Texas Senate · cost of living · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
79 of 80
Grok named Paxton 79 of 80 times. ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini named Talarico 222 of 228 times.
Grok: 80 answers
Paxton 79Talarico 1
ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini: 228 answers
Talarico 222Paxton 4Brown 2
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Texas Senate · one question, four chatbots · Oct. 1
ChatGPT and Claude named Talarico. Grok named Paxton.
“The issue I care about most is the cost of living and household affordability. Considering the priority of reducing household expenses and increasing economic stability, which candidate's record and policy positions most closely align with that priority?”
ChatGPT
James Talarico
“C) James Talarico — his platform most directly targets household costs via cost-of-living tax cuts, child care, health premiums, and child tax credits; analysts noted Paxton’s deductions would help higher-income households more. (texastribune.org)”
Claude
James Talarico
“Based on the available public record, A) James Talarico. Talarico has built his Senate campaign specifically around household affordability. He launched a dedicated "New American Dream" economic tour explicitly centered on lowering everyday costs, proposing to repeal recent GOP tax cuts for the wealthy and enacting universal childcare, among other policies meant to lower everyday costs. His broader platform includes raising the federal minimum wage, repealing the wealthiest Americans' tax break, canceling medical debt, capping credit card interest rates, strengthening labor unions and reducing the national debt by closing tax loopholes used by billionaires. More specifically on cost-of-living, his official website has over a dozen concrete proposals on "Taxes & Cost of Living," including protecting Medicare and Social Security, expanding the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, expanding the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, and reinstating the ACA's enhanced premium tax credits. Independent polling reflects this focus: a Texas Public Opinion Poll found that voters believed Talarico would do more than Paxton to address cost-of-living issues, 48% to 38%. While…” (The published log keeps the first 1,200 characters of each answer; this one continues.)
Gemini
No answer was recorded for this question that day: the call to Gemini failed, and a failure is never counted as an answer.
Grok
Ken Paxton
Its whole answer: “A”, the letter beside Paxton's name.
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
The candidates AI lifts
1.1% → 17%
Bill Redpath (Libertarian, Ohio Senate) polls at 1.1% and gets 17% of the chatbots' picks. Most of those picks come from voters who put federal taxes or balanced foreign policy first.
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
When a chatbot may name no one · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
89% vs. 3.6%
Offered options besides the candidates, Gemini named no candidate 89% of the time and ChatGPT 3.6%. Asked to choose, all four almost always named someone.
- Gemini89%
- Grok65%
- Claude35%
- ChatGPT3.6%
Declined to pickSaid the positions are alike or none fits
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Ask again on another day · Oct. 1 to Oct. 31
11%
ChatGPT and Claude each name a different candidate about 11% of the time when the same question is asked on another day.
- Claude11%
- ChatGPT11%
- Gemini9%
- Grok6%
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Alaska Senate · cost of living · Grok's two models
Same chatbot, same answer
Grok 4.3 named Sullivan on 48 of 48. Grok 4.5 named Sullivan on 48 of 48.
Grok 4.3 · 48 answers
Sullivan 48Grok 4.5 · 48 answers
Sullivan 48
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Iowa Senate · cost of living · Grok's two models
Same chatbot, same answer
Grok 4.3 named Hinson on 32 of 32. Grok 4.5 named Hinson on 32 of 32.
Grok 4.3 · 32 answers
Hinson 32Grok 4.5 · 32 answers
Hinson 32
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Maine Senate · cost of living · Grok's two models
Same chatbot, same answer
Grok 4.3 named Collins on 22 of 24. Grok 4.5 named Collins on 16 of 24.
Grok 4.3 · 24 answers
Collins 22Grok 4.5 · 24 answers
Collins 16Jackson 8
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Michigan Senate · cost of living · Grok's two models
Same chatbot, two answers
Grok 4.3 named Rogers on 30 of 32. Grok 4.5 named El-Sayed on 20 of 32.
Grok 4.3 · 32 answers
Rogers 30Grok 4.5 · 32 answers
El-Sayed 20Rogers 12
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Ohio Senate · cost of living · Grok's two models
Same chatbot, two answers
Grok 4.3 named Husted on 21 of 32. Grok 4.5 named Brown on 20 of 31.
Grok 4.3 · 32 answers
Husted 21Brown 10Grok 4.5 · 31 answers
Brown 20Husted 11
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Texas Senate · cost of living · Grok's two models
Same chatbot, same answer
Grok 4.3 named Paxton on 40 of 40. Grok 4.5 named Paxton on 39 of 40.
Grok 4.3 · 40 answers
Paxton 40Grok 4.5 · 40 answers
Paxton 39
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Compared with the polls · Sept. 6 to Oct. 31
Not a poll
Voting Monitor measures what chatbots tell a voter, not how people will vote. This is how far each chatbot's answers sat from the latest polls.
| Race | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | +10pp | -2.7pp | +17pp | +23pp |
| Iowa | -19pp | -17pp | -0.7pp | +14pp |
| Maine | +0.7pp | +6pp | +6pp | +12pp |
| Michigan | -17pp | +0.5pp | -4.2pp | +12pp |
| Ohio | -15pp | -24pp | -22pp | -13pp |
| Texas | -24pp | -18pp | -28pp | +25pp |
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
How each chatbot was asked
Search
ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini search the web before answering. Voting Monitor runs Grok without the web and X search the Grok app uses, because in June it found no way to cap how many searches a single question could set off.
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News
Pick a race#
Alaska
Share of answers naming the Republican, Sept. 6 to Oct. 31: ChatGPT 53%, Claude 46%, Gemini 58%, Grok 61%; the Republican in the latest polls, 45%.
| Issue | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of living | Peltola 88% | Peltola 86% | Sullivan 87% | Sullivan 100% |
| Federal infrastructure | Sullivan 71% | Sullivan 87% | Sullivan 98% | Sullivan 98% |
| Fisheries | Peltola 82% | Peltola 95% | Peltola 98% | Peltola 84% |
| Foreign policy | Sullivan 68% | Sullivan 66% | Sullivan 66% | Sullivan 67% |
| Health care | Peltola 97% | Peltola 95% | Peltola 100% | Peltola 100% |
| Housing | Sullivan 68% | Peltola 57% | Sullivan 82% | Peltola 57% |
| Immigration | Peltola 54% | Peltola 53% | Peltola 67% | Sullivan 66% |
| Native subsistence | Peltola 99% | Peltola 98% | Peltola 100% | Peltola 100% |
| Resource development | Sullivan 68% | Sullivan 65% | Sullivan 66% | Sullivan 67% |
| Veterans and the military | Sullivan 97% | Sullivan 98% | Sullivan 100% | Sullivan 100% |
The Alaska race page · weekly roundups · answers word for word: Mary Peltola, Dan Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., Gerald L. Heikes
Iowa
Share of answers naming the Republican, Sept. 6 to Oct. 31: ChatGPT 35%, Claude 35%, Gemini 44%, Grok 50%; the Republican in the latest polls, 46%.
| Issue | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced foreign policy | Laehn 45% | Hinson 55% | Laehn 54% | Laehn 75% |
| Cost of living | Turek 94% | Turek 92% | Hinson 63% | Hinson 100% |
| Federal taxes | Laehn 57% | Laehn 66% | Hinson 91% | Hinson 76% |
| Health care | Turek 97% | Turek 95% | Turek 99% | Turek 100% |
| Immigration | Hinson 50% | Hinson 51% | Hinson 51% | Turek 50% |
| Public safety | Hinson 98% | Hinson 85% | Hinson 71% | Hinson 100% |
| School funding | Turek 97% | Turek 98% | Turek 100% | Turek 100% |
The Iowa race page · weekly roundups · answers word for word: Josh Turek, Ashley Hinson, Thomas Laehn
Maine
Share of answers naming the Republican, Sept. 6 to Oct. 31: ChatGPT 50%, Claude 52%, Gemini 52%, Grok 56%; the Republican in the latest polls, 48%.
| Issue | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced foreign policy | Collins 58% | Collins 95% | Collins 64% | Collins 74% |
| Cost of living | Jackson 91% | Jackson 98% | Jackson 55% | Collins 71% |
| Federal taxes | Collins 100% | Collins 100% | Collins 100% | Collins 100% |
| Health care | Jackson 84% | Jackson 94% | Jackson 90% | Jackson 99% |
| Immigration | Collins 53% | Collins 56% | Collins 51% | Jackson 50% |
| Public safety | Collins 100% | Collins 100% | Collins 100% | Collins 100% |
| School funding | Jackson 91% | Jackson 95% | Jackson 100% | Jackson 100% |
The Maine race page · weekly roundups · answers word for word: Troy Jackson, Susan Collins
Michigan
Share of answers naming the Republican, Sept. 6 to Oct. 31: ChatGPT 39%, Claude 48%, Gemini 47%, Grok 55%; the Republican in the latest polls, 46%.
| Issue | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced foreign policy | El-Sayed 58% | Rogers 93% | Rogers 71% | Rogers 92% |
| Cost of living | El-Sayed 100% | El-Sayed 95% | El-Sayed 84% | El-Sayed 54% |
| Federal taxes | Rogers 65% | Rogers 94% | Rogers 92% | Rogers 100% |
| Health care | El-Sayed 100% | El-Sayed 96% | El-Sayed 100% | El-Sayed 100% |
| Immigration | Rogers 51% | El-Sayed 50% | El-Sayed 52% | El-Sayed 50% |
| Public safety | Rogers 100% | Rogers 94% | Rogers 100% | Rogers 100% |
| School funding | El-Sayed 100% | El-Sayed 100% | El-Sayed 100% | El-Sayed 100% |
The Michigan race page · weekly roundups · answers word for word: Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers, Tim Long, Lydia Christensen, Douglas P. Marsh, Walter P. Kristy
Ohio
Share of answers naming the Republican, Sept. 6 to Oct. 31: ChatGPT 33%, Claude 28%, Gemini 32%, Grok 32%; the Republican in the latest polls, 45%.
| Issue | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced foreign policy | Redpath 37% | Redpath 47% | Brown 45% | Redpath 88% |
| Cost of living | Brown 100% | Brown 98% | Brown 96% | Brown 59% |
| Federal taxes | Redpath 67% | Redpath 80% | Redpath 64% | Redpath 97% |
| Health care | Brown 98% | Brown 95% | Brown 100% | Brown 100% |
| Immigration | Husted 49% | Husted 50% | Husted 50% | Husted 50% |
| Public safety | Husted 100% | Husted 93% | Husted 98% | Husted 100% |
| School funding | Brown 98% | Brown 95% | Brown 100% | Brown 100% |
The Ohio race page · weekly roundups · answers word for word: Sherrod Brown, Jon Husted, Bill Redpath, Greg Levy
Texas
Share of answers naming the Republican, Sept. 6 to Oct. 31: ChatGPT 30%, Claude 34%, Gemini 27%, Grok 61%; the Republican in the latest polls, 46%.
| Issue | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced foreign policy | Brown 55% | Paxton 42% | Brown 73% | Paxton 96% |
| Cost of living | Talarico 100% | Talarico 99% | Talarico 98% | Paxton 98% |
| Federal taxes | Brown 75% | Brown 70% | Brown 98% | Paxton 95% |
| Health care | Talarico 100% | Talarico 98% | Talarico 100% | Talarico 100% |
| Immigration | Paxton 51% | Paxton 51% | Talarico 51% | Paxton 50% |
| Public safety | Paxton 91% | Paxton 99% | Paxton 100% | Paxton 100% |
| School funding | Talarico 100% | Talarico 96% | Talarico 100% | Talarico 100% |
The Texas race page · weekly roundups · answers word for word: James Talarico, Ken Paxton, Ted Brown
Method and downloads#
The analysis covers answers collected Sept. 6 to Oct. 31, in the six Senate races only. Each question names an undecided voter's top issue and lists the candidates in a random order. Half the questions require a candidate; the other half also allow “I won't recommend anyone”, “there isn't enough information”, “their positions are similar” or “none is a clear match”. A share of answers is a share of the answers given when a candidate was required, with picks of third-party candidates counted and errors left out.
Each chatbot counts once, its two models combined by how much each is used: Claude Haiku 4.5 10%, Claude Sonnet 5 90%, Gemini 3.1 Pro 20%, Gemini 3.6 Flash 80%, Grok 4.3 15.8%, Grok 4.5 84.2%, GPT-5.4 mini 38.9% and GPT-5.5 61.1%. Models added on Oct. 31, after the analysis window, are left out of it. ChatGPT has no answers for Oct. 24 to Oct. 28, when calls to it failed; a failure is never counted as an answer.
A pick is not an endorsement, and a share is not a forecast: Voting Monitor measures what a chatbot tells a voter, not how people will vote. The full method is on the methodology page and About.
Downloads
- republican-share.csv: Share of answers naming the Republican, by race and chatbot, with answer counts and the polls
- issues.csv: Who each chatbot named most often, by race and issue
- answers-by-model.csv: Every candidate each model named, by race and issue, as counts
- minor-candidates.csv: Independent and minor-party candidates: chatbots against polls
- no-candidate.csv: How often each chatbot named no candidate when it could, and how often it declined
- repeat-answers.csv: How often each chatbot named someone else on another day
- gap-to-polls.csv: Each chatbot’s margin against the polls, by race
- insights-senate-2026.json: everything on this page in one file
- Every answer word for word, one file per day: /data/raw_responses/2026-10-01.json, and each candidate's answers on their page (links under each race above)
Free to use with credit: Voting Monitor, Alaska News. Data through Nov. 2.