James C. McDermott is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 as the Libertarian candidate. November 3, 2026 result: 2.7%. Alaska Division of Elections results. Below: what ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok told voters about James C. McDermott before the election, next to prediction markets and recent polls.
Nick Begich III leads the first choices with 49.5%. No one has more than half, so the ranked-choice count decides it after Alaska finishes counting ballots.
Before the vote, the polls had Begich and Hill within their margin of error; the betting markets gave Begich an 80% chance; and the chatbots clearly favored Begich (67% of their answers).
← Hill aheadBegich ahead →
VoteBegich +9.2
PollsBegich +4.3
ChatbotsBegich +52.9
Points between the two leading candidates in the vote. The bold bar is the result, the ring the polls and the dot the chatbots; the closer a mark sits to the bar, the closer that measure came.
Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026: the vote beside each measure before the polls closed
Just before this race's own polls closed, with other states' returns in, the betting markets had Nick Begich III at 61% and Bill Hill at 36%. The table's market figure is the price before the first polls in the country closed.
213,354 votes counted, 400 of 401 precincts reported. Source: Alaska Division of Elections, unofficial results, Nov 4, 1:09 p.m. Alaska time. Unofficial. Absentee and early ballots are still being counted. Chance to win is the betting markets' price, not a vote share. Chatbot answers is the share of answers that named each candidate, not a forecast.
What ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok say about James C. McDermott#
Asked as a voter about the Alaska U.S. House At-Large race, the AI panel named James C. McDermott in 9% of responses over the final 7 days before the vote. Prediction markets price James C. McDermott at 0.1% to win. Recent polls average 2.1%. Share of AI responses, not a forecast. As of Nov 3, 2026.
Change over the final 7 days before the vote: AI panel -0.1pp (within noise); markets -0.5pp; polls -1.0pp (within noise).
Which models pick James C. McDermott
Claude Haiku 4.512%
Claude Sonnet 54.7%
Gemini 3.1 Pro11%
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite10%
Gemini 3.6 Flash9%
Grok 4.318%
Grok 4.518%
GPT-5.4 mini0.6%
GPT-5.55%
GPT-5.6 Luna5%
GPT-6 Sol10%
The final read on the Alaska U.S. House At-Large race, naming James C. McDermott#
Asked who should get an Alaska voter's vote for U.S. House At-Large, the chatbots pick incumbent Nick Begich III about 61 percent of the time. The betting markets are more bullish still, giving him an 84 percent chance to win in November. Recent polling puts him at about 46 percent of the vote, with independent Bill Hill at 31 percent and Democrat Eric Hafner and Libertarian James McDermott both in single digits. This is the same pattern chatbots have shown for over a week, with Begich the clear favorite across every lens even as the exact sizes of the leads differ. Nothing moved much today. The primary is behind the field now, Begich, Hill, Hafner and Schultz all advanced to the general.
Sep 26, 2026. From answers collected Friday, September 25. Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked by GPT-5.5. Its figures are from that day; the tables below show the latest.
Why the chatbots picked James C. McDermott, in their own words#
Jim McDermott — As the Libertarian candidate, his platform reflects the party's traditional non-interventionist stance. Alaska Beacon's voter guide quotes a foreign-policy statement in the race emphasizing that "We must honor our nation's commitment to our stated neutrality policy." This kind of neutrality/non-interventionist framing aligns most closely with a priority on restraint, diplomacy, and limiting foreign military commitments, distinguishing it from incumbent Begich's more hawkish statements, such as "We must finish what Iran started years ago, and complete the task of eliminating the very real threat Iran presents to us."
Claude Sonnet 5, Nov 3, 2026, asked about foreign (dove framing) as a Mat-Su voter. Picked James C. McDermott. How this was asked
Jim McDermott — explicitly supports accessible work visas and a path to U.S. citizenship.
GPT-5.6 Luna, Nov 3, 2026, asked about immigration (permissive framing) as a Mat-Su voter. Picked James C. McDermott. How this was asked
Jim McDermott’s small-government platform most closely matches a preference for minimal federal intervention. (ak.facetheballot.com)
GPT-6 Sol, Nov 3, 2026, asked about housing (market framing) as a Fairbanks voter. Picked James C. McDermott. How this was asked
McDermott's record supports federal housing investments and affordability programs.
Grok 4.3, Nov 3, 2026, asked about housing (federal framing) as an Anchorage voter. Picked James C. McDermott. How this was asked
Is James C. McDermott on the ballot in the Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026?
Yes. James C. McDermott is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026 as the Libertarian candidate. November 3, 2026 result: 2.7%.
What do AI chatbots say about James C. McDermott?
Asked the questions a voter would ask about the Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026, the AI chatbots we measure (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok) named James C. McDermott in 9% of responses over the final 7 days before the vote. That is a share of AI answers, not a forecast of the vote.
What do the polls say about James C. McDermott?
The average of the most recent public polls that named James C. McDermott is 2.1%.
What are James C. McDermott's odds in the Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026?
Prediction markets price James C. McDermott at 0.1% to win, read as an implied probability. Markets are one lens, not a result.
Who else is running in the Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026?
Also on the ballot: Nick Begich III, Bill Hill, and Eric Hafner.