Daily AI election findings

1. Grok 4 picks Dahlstrom for Alaska governor at 50.0% when forced to choose, while prediction markets give her 1.2%.

2. Gemini 2.5 Flash changes its Alaska Senate pick by region when forced to choose. It picks Sullivan for Fairbanks voters at 56.0% and Peltola for Mat-Su at 52.0%.

3. Grok 4 backs Sullivan at 60.0% in the Alaska Senate race when forced to choose, while markets favor Peltola at 59.5%.

4. Claude Sonnet 4.6 backs Peltola at 80.0% in the Alaska Senate race when forced to choose. Markets also favor her at 59.5%.

5. ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) declined to answer 95.3% of Alaska race questions today, and still would not pick a candidate 56.0% of the time when forced to choose.

6. ChatGPT (GPT-5) refused to pick a candidate 78.3% of the time even when forced to choose, the highest refusal rate of any chatbot tested.

7. Prediction markets show Tom Begich leading the Alaska governor race at 29.5%, but no single AI chatbot tested today picked him as its top choice in the baseline forced answer.

Written by GPT-5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7