Daily AI election findings

1. Grok 4.3 picked Sullivan while Alaska Senate markets favored Peltola.

   Grok 4.3 picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in the Alaska Senate race today, giving him 63 percent when forced to choose. Prediction markets give Sullivan 38.5 percent and Democrat Mary Peltola 62 percent. The gap makes Grok 4.3 the clearest Senate break from market prices in the AI panel.

2. Alaska Senate chatbots changed their pick by region.

   The AI panel picked Democrat Mary Peltola for a Western Alaska voter and leaned toward Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for Fairbanks and Mat Su voters. Peltola drew 56 percent in Western Alaska. Sullivan drew 49 percent in Fairbanks and 49 percent in the Mat Su Valley. The regional split matters because markets still give Peltola 62 percent statewide.

3. Every House chatbot picked Begich, even when the margins changed.

   Republican incumbent Nick Begich III was the top pick in every Alaska House chatbot result today. The consumer chatbots gave him between 44 percent and 89 percent when forced to choose. Gemini 2.5 Pro was the softest at 44 percent, while Grok 4.3 and Gemini 2.5 Flash each gave him 89 percent.

4. Governor chatbots favored Walker while markets led with Tom Begich.

   The AI panel gave Independent Bill Walker the top share in the Alaska governor race today, at 27 percent to 29 percent across the weighting tests. Prediction markets list Democrat Thomas Scott Begich as their leader at 30 percent. The panel gave Tom Begich 7 percent to 8 percent, showing a clear split between chatbot answers and market prices.

5. Claude Sonnet 4.6 broke from the panel and picked Peltola for Senate.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 gave Democrat Mary Peltola 54 percent in the Alaska Senate race today when forced to choose, while Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan drew 39 percent. That makes Claude Sonnet 4.6 the only consumer chatbot with Peltola as the statewide pick, aligning more closely with prediction markets that give Peltola 62 percent.

6. Rauscher dominates the State Senate panel while Gemini 2.5 Pro hedges.

   Republican incumbent George Rauscher was the top pick across the AI panel in Alaska State Senate District O, drawing 50 percent to 92 percent when forced to choose. Gemini 2.5 Pro gave him only 50 percent while Gemini 2.5 Flash gave him 92 percent. No prediction market covers this race, so the chatbot range is the main public signal.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Claude Opus 4.7 suddenly found Begich everywhere in the House race.

   Claude Opus 4.7 picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 98 percent in the baseline Alaska House test today, up from 43 percent yesterday. Its Anchorage result rose to 91 percent from 39 percent. That is a large one day move in a race where other current chatbots already leaned toward Begich.

2. Gemini stayed far outside the Senate consensus, if consensus is the word.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash named Peltola in only 4 percent of baseline Senate answers today and did not register Sullivan. Gemini 2.5 Pro also put Peltola at 4 percent and did not register Sullivan. Other current chatbots gave either Sullivan or Peltola at least 44 percent in the same test.

3. Claude Opus 4.7 flipped its Alaska Senate pick from Peltola to Sullivan.

4. Nine of ten chatbots picked Begich for the Alaska House today.

5. Chatbots and markets split on who leads the Alaska Governor race.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Chatbots split on Sullivan while markets favored Peltola in Alaska Senate race.

   Five of eight consumer chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race today. Two picked Democrat Mary Peltola, and Gemini 2.5 Flash put both at 44 percent. Prediction markets pointed the other way, giving Peltola 62 percent and Sullivan 37.5 percent for November.

2. Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5.5 flipped their Senate picks to Peltola.

   Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5.5 both changed their Alaska Senate answer from Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan yesterday to Democrat Mary Peltola today. Gemini 2.5 Pro put Peltola at 53 percent after giving Sullivan 52 percent yesterday. GPT-5.5 put Peltola at 54 percent after giving Sullivan 54 percent yesterday.

3. Claude Opus 4.7 cut its Begich share but still picked him.

   Claude Opus 4.7 still picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III for Alaska House voters today. Its Begich share fell to 43 percent from 98 percent yesterday for a voter who gave no region. The rest of the consumer panel also kept Begich first, with shares ranging from 26 percent to 94 percent.

4. Grok 4.20 stuck with Sullivan at 68 percent while the rest of the panel barely cleared a coin flip.

   Grok 4.20 gave Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 68 percent in the Alaska Senate race today for a baseline voter, the highest Sullivan share on the current consumer panel. The other seven chatbots ranged from Sullivan 44 percent to Sullivan 53 percent, with two picking Democrat Mary Peltola. Prediction markets gave Peltola 62 percent and Sullivan 37.5 percent.

5. Chatbots picked Sullivan while markets favored Peltola in Alaska Senate race.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Alaska Senate answers tilted toward Peltola, except in the Grok corner.

   Among the current consumer panel, six of eight chatbots favored Mary Peltola in the Alaska Senate race for the statewide prompt. The weighted panel share was 56 percent for Peltola. Prediction markets also favored Peltola at 62 percent, while Grok 4.20 and Grok 4.3 favored Dan Sullivan.

2. Markets like Tom Begich more than the chatbots do in the Governor race.

   Prediction markets made Tom Begich the Governor frontrunner at 30 percent today. The current chatbot panel put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first for the statewide prompt at 21 percent, with Click Bishop at 15 percent and Tom Begich at 7 percent.

3. Markets and chatbots split on the Alaska Senate race.

4. Grok 4.20 and Grok 4.3 picked Sullivan while the rest of the panel chose Peltola.

5. Gemini 2.5 Flash split its Alaska House pick between Begich and Hill for a baseline voter.

6. Chatbots scatter on the Alaska Governor race while markets favor Tom Begich.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Gemini 2.5 Flash put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins well ahead of governor markets.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 52 percent for the Alaska governor race. Prediction markets give Kreiss-Tomkins 15.8 percent and make Democrat Thomas Scott Begich the leader at 30 percent. No other chatbot put any governor candidate above 24 percent when the voter did not name a region.

2. Grok picked Nick Begich III in every Alaska House region tested.

   Grok 4.20 and Grok 4.3 picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 100 percent for the Alaska House race. The result held when the voter said they lived in Western Alaska. It also held for the Mat-Su Valley and a North Slope village. Other chatbots split more in Western Alaska, where Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Independent Bill Hill at 38 percent.

3. The state senate panel split the chatbots down the middle on Rauscher's lock.

   Republican George Rauscher drew 86 percent from Claude Opus 4.7 and 79 percent from Grok 4.20 in the Alaska State Senate District O race. Gemini 2.5 Pro put Rauscher at just 43 percent and gave Democrat Peter Bauer 29 percent. The eight current chatbots ranged from 43 percent to 86 percent on the same candidate when forced to choose.

4. Claude Opus shut out every governor candidate but two in its baseline pick.

   Claude Opus 4.7 named only Click Bishop at 10 percent and Shelley Hughes at 5 percent for the Alaska governor race in the baseline question, leaving 85 percent unaccounted for. Every other chatbot named at least four governor candidates. Prediction markets give Democrat Thomas Scott Begich the lead at 30 percent and Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 15.8 percent, neither of whom Claude Opus picked.

5. ChatGPT flipped both Alaska Senate picks to Mary Peltola.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Alaska Senate answers leaned Sullivan while markets leaned Peltola.

   A summary of the current chatbot panel put Dan Sullivan at 77 percent of default voter answers today. Prediction markets put Mary Peltola at 62 percent and Sullivan at 38 percent. That leaves the panel and markets pointing in opposite directions.

2. ChatGPT versions split completely on Fairbanks Senate answers.

   ChatGPT GPT-5.4 mini picked Sullivan 67 percent of the time for the default voter and Peltola in 100 percent of Fairbanks answers today. ChatGPT GPT-5.5 picked Sullivan in 100 percent of its default and Fairbanks answers. The model a voter reaches changed the answer more than the question.

3. Grok 4.3 picked Sullivan every single time across every region today.

4. Gemini 2.5 Flash mini reversed its Sullivan pick when the voter said Fairbanks.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Claude Opus 4.7 flipped to Sullivan on the Alaska Senate question.

   Claude Opus 4.7 picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 52 percent on the Alaska Senate question today, after picking Democrat Mary Peltola at 62 percent yesterday. The same chatbot still picked Peltola at 57 percent when the voter said they live in Fairbanks. Prediction markets give Peltola a 60.5 percent chance and Sullivan 39 percent.

2. Gemini picked Kreiss-Tomkins for governor while markets favored Tom Begich.

   Gemini 2.5 Pro picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 52 percent for governor today, and Gemini 2.5 Flash put him at 48 percent. Prediction markets give Democrat Thomas Scott Begich 28.5 percent, the top market price, and Kreiss-Tomkins 15.75 percent. The gap shows voters can see different Democratic names from chatbots and markets.

3. Grok 4.20 was the only chatbot that locked onto Tom Begich for governor today.

   Grok 4.20 picked Democrat Thomas Scott Begich at 36 percent for governor in Anchorage today, the highest share for the candidate prediction markets favor at 28.5 percent. No other chatbot in the consumer panel led with Tom Begich at baseline. Most chatbots picked Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Treg Taylor, or Nancy Dahlstrom instead.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Chatbots and markets split on the Alaska Governor race as Democrats lead the panel and the market.

   Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins was the most common pick across the consumer panel for the Alaska Governor race today, drawing about 23 percent of picks for a default voter. Democrat Tom Begich came in second around 19 percent. Prediction markets give Tom Begich the best odds at 29 percent and Kreiss-Tomkins 16 percent. Republican Nancy Dahlstrom is at 12 percent in the panel and less than 2 percent on prediction markets.

2. Grok is the only brand still giving Sullivan a default Senate lead.

   Both current Grok models picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for a default Alaska Senate voter today, at 57 percent on Grok 4.20 and 67 percent on Grok 4.3. The six Claude, Gemini and ChatGPT models picked Democrat Mary Peltola, and prediction markets put Peltola at 61 percent.

3. Bill Hill got two North Slope nods in a House panel that otherwise liked Nick Begich.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 gave Independent Bill Hill 52 percent for a North Slope village voter in the Alaska House race today, with Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 48 percent. Gemini 2.5 Flash also put Hill ahead, 48 percent to 33 percent, even as the broader panel put Begich near 68 percent for the same voter prompt.

4. Chatbots and markets split on the Alaska Governor race as Democrats lead the panel and the market.

5. ChatGPT and Grok still pick Sullivan for the Alaska Senate seat while Claude and Gemini pick Peltola.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Gemini 2.5 Flash flipped its Alaska Senate pick to Mary Peltola.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash moved from Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan to Democrat Mary Peltola on the Alaska Senate race. Sullivan led its answer at 52 percent yesterday. Peltola led at 67 percent today. Prediction markets also favored Peltola at 60.5 percent.

2. Every current chatbot picked Nick Begich III in the Alaska House race.

   Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III led every chatbot answer for the Alaska House race today. All eight chatbots in the current consumer panel picked him when forced to choose a candidate. His weakest lead came from Gemini 2.5 Flash, which picked Begich at 43 percent and Independent Bill Hill at 38 percent.

3. Prediction markets gave Peltola a six-point edge while the AI panel split evenly on the Senate race.

   Prediction markets put Democrat Mary Peltola at 60.5 percent and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 39 percent in the Alaska Senate race. The current consumer AI panel split more evenly. Six of eight chatbots picked Peltola but Grok 4.20 picked Sullivan at 57 percent and Grok 4.3 picked Sullivan at 71 percent in baseline answers.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Gemini 2.5 Pro shifted further toward Peltola overnight in the Alaska Senate race.

   Gemini 2.5 Pro picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 71 percent for a default Alaska Senate voter today, up from 62 percent yesterday. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan fell to 29 percent. Prediction markets give Peltola a 61 percent chance to win in November. Gemini 2.5 Pro now sits above the market on Peltola by 10 percentage points.

2. Gemini 2.5 Flash flipped to Sullivan in the Senate race, right as markets still favored Peltola.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 52 percent for a default Alaska Senate voter today, after putting Democrat Mary Peltola at 62 percent yesterday. Prediction markets put Peltola at 61 percent and Sullivan at 39 percent.

3. Gemini 2.5 Flash gave Kreiss-Tomkins 62 percent for governor, while markets left him at 16 percent.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 62 percent for a default governor voter today. Prediction markets put him at 16 percent and market leader Democrat Tom Begich at 29 percent.

4. Both Grok models picked Republican Nick Begich for every Alaska House voter today.

5. The AI panel keeps picking Kreiss-Tomkins for governor as markets back Tom Begich.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Gemini 2.5 Flash flipped its Alaska Senate pick to Mary Peltola.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 62 percent in the Alaska Senate race today. It picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 52 percent yesterday. Its Fairbanks answer also moved from Sullivan at 57 percent to Peltola at 57 percent. Prediction markets give Peltola 60.5 percent and Sullivan 39 percent.

2. Gemini 2.5 Flash broke from Begich in the House race.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Independent Bill Hill at 43 percent for the Alaska House race today. It picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 48 percent yesterday. Seven of eight chatbots picked Begich today, which makes Gemini 2.5 Flash the only chatbot to pick another candidate.

3. Claude Opus 4.7 changed its Senate answer for Fairbanks.

   Claude Opus 4.7 picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 52 percent for the Alaska Senate race today. When the voter said they lived in Fairbanks, it picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 62 percent. The full panel gave Peltola 54 percent for Fairbanks, so Claude moved with that local answer.

4. The panel still likes Peltola for Senate while Polymarket money agrees, a rare moment of accord.

   Five of the eight current chatbots picked Democrat Mary Peltola in the Alaska Senate race today at the baseline question. Polymarket gave Peltola 60.5 percent and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 39 percent. Yesterday only three chatbots had Peltola on top at baseline, so the AI panel moved toward the market consensus overnight.

5. Polymarket bettors crowned Tom Begich the governor frontrunner while the chatbots can't agree on anyone.

   Polymarket gave Democrat Tom Begich 28.5 percent in the Alaska governor race, the highest price in the field. The AI panel was scattered, with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading the equal-weighted baseline at 24 percent and no candidate above that. Grok 4.20 picked Republican Nancy Dahlstrom, Claude Opus 4.7 refused a baseline pick, and Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite picked Democrat Matt Claman at 38 percent.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Gemini 2.5 Flash flips its Alaska House pick to Bill Hill for Fairbanks voters.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Independent Bill Hill at 52 percent for a Fairbanks voter on the Alaska House race today. The same chatbot picked Republican Nick Begich for an Anchorage voter at 48 percent. No other chatbot in the panel switched its top pick by region on this race.

2. Gemini 2.5 Flash swung from Peltola to Sullivan for Fairbanks Senate questions.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 57 percent and Democrat Mary Peltola at 38 percent for Fairbanks Senate questions today. On Tuesday, the same chatbot had Peltola at 62 percent and Sullivan at 38 percent in that setting.

3. Markets like Tom Begich more than the chatbots do in the governor race.

   Prediction markets put Democrat Tom Begich first at 29 percent in the Alaska governor race. In the combined AI answers with no city or region named, Tom Begich was at 13 percent, behind Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Democrat Matt Claman at 20 percent each.

4. Grok 4.3 sticks with Sullivan as the rest of the panel leans Peltola.

5. ChatGPT GPT-5 swung to Peltola overnight after picking Sullivan yesterday.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Claude Opus 4.7 flipped its Senate pick from Sullivan to Peltola.

   Claude Opus 4.7 picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 52 percent for the Alaska Senate race today. It picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 57 percent on the same question yesterday. The move puts Claude Opus 4.7 with prediction markets, which give Peltola 59.5 percent for November.

2. Gemini 2.5 Flash flipped to Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 62 percent in the Alaska governor race today. It picked Democrat Thomas Scott Begich at 52 percent yesterday. Prediction markets still lead with Begich at 29.5 percent. They give Kreiss-Tomkins 15.5 percent, a large gap from the chatbot.

3. Claude Sonnet 4.6 stayed firmly with Peltola while half the panel wavered on the Senate seat.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 62 percent in the Alaska Senate race today at baseline, holding steady from 71 percent yesterday. Prediction markets give Peltola 59.5 percent for November. The chatbot remains one of the strongest Peltola backers on the panel alongside Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5.5.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Claude Opus 4.7 shifted its Alaska Senate answer overnight, from a 43.0% Peltola and 43.0% Sullivan tie yesterday to Sullivan at 57.0% today. Prediction markets see the opposite, giving Democrat Mary Peltola a 59.5% chance.

2. On the Alaska Governor race, the AI chatbots are split four ways between Tom Begich (D), Kreiss-Tomkins (D), Claman (D), and Taylor (R), with no candidate above 27.0%. Prediction markets agree it is wide open, giving leader Tom Begich just 29.5%.

3. Gemini 2.5 Flash flipped its default Alaska House answer from Nick Begich III at 52.0% yesterday to Bill Hill at 48.0% today.

4. Claude Opus 4.7 cut Nancy Dahlstrom's default Alaska Governor share from 48.0% yesterday to 24.0% today, leaving Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins tied ahead of her at 29.0%.

5. ChatGPT's GPT-5 flipped its Alaska Senate pick overnight, going from a tie at 43.0% Peltola to Sullivan at 57.0% today. Prediction markets see the opposite, giving Democrat Mary Peltola a 59.5% chance.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Most AI chatbots picked Peltola for Alaska's Senate race when asked to choose today. Grok 4.3 broke the other way, picking Sullivan at 67%, while prediction markets give Peltola about 60%.

2. Claude Opus 4.7 picked Nancy Dahlstrom for Alaska governor at 48% when asked to choose today, even though prediction markets put Dahlstrom at about 1%.

3. ChatGPT (GPT-5) still would not pick a candidate 35.7% of the time when asked to choose in Alaska races today. The next-highest rate was Gemini 2.5 Flash at 1.2%.

4. Grok swept the Alaska House race for Nick Begich III today. Grok 4, Grok 4.20 and Grok 4.3 each picked him 100.0% when asked to choose.

5. Prediction markets give Tom Begich just a 30% chance of winning the Alaska governor race, but four of the ten chatbots picked him as their top choice when asked today.

6. Grok 4.3 declined to recommend in 87% of Alaska questions when given the option today, the highest refusal rate of any chatbot on the panel.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Most AI chatbots lean Peltola for the Alaska Senate race today when forced to choose. Prediction markets agree, giving her a 59.5% chance against Sullivan's 40.5%.

2. Claude Opus 4.7 flips its Alaska Senate pick depending on where the voter says they live. It splits Sullivan and Peltola 43.0% each for the default voter but goes 71.0% Peltola for voters in Western Alaska.

3. AI chatbots favored Nick Begich III for the Alaska House race today, picking him 72.0% of the time when asked to choose. Bill Hill was second at 14.0%.

4. Grok 4.3 had the highest no-answer rate today, declining 86.5% of voter questions. Grok 4 was next at 83.3%, and ChatGPT GPT-5 was at 81.7%.

5. Claude Opus 4.7 picked Nancy Dahlstrom 48.0% of the time for Governor when asked to choose without a region specified, while prediction markets price Dahlstrom at 1.2%.

6. AI chatbots are nearly unanimous on Begich for the Alaska House race today, picking him 72.0% of the time when forced to choose. Hill comes in a distant second at 14.0%.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5

1. ChatGPT (GPT-5) declined to recommend a candidate in 89.1% of Alaska race questions today. That was the highest rate on the panel and its fifth straight day above 75.0%.

2. Claude Opus 4.7 flips its Alaska Senate answer when the voter says they live in Fairbanks. It picks Mary Peltola 57.0% when no hometown is named but Dan Sullivan 52.0% for Fairbanks voters.

3. Gemini 2.5 Flash flips its Alaska House answer when the voter says they live in Fairbanks or the Mat-Su Valley. It picks Nick Begich III 47.0% when no hometown is named, but Bill Hill 67.0% for Fairbanks voters and 58.0% for Mat-Su Valley voters.

4. Prediction markets give Mary Peltola a 59.5% chance to win Alaska's Senate race, but the full AI panel splits about evenly, with Peltola at roughly 52-53% and Dan Sullivan at 43-45% across regions.

5. Grok 4 stopped picking Sullivan on the Alaska Senate race today versus yesterday, dropping from 71% to 57% in the Anchorage prompt, while Peltola rose from 36% to 43%.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. GPT-5 refusal: escape-hatch decline rate rose by 1.8pp vs yesterday to 80.2% (from 78.4%), and its pressed refusal rate increased by 3.7pp to 37.7% — the highest among all 10 slots. Note: refusal is a per-slot metric across all races, not AK-GOV-specific.

2. Gemini 2.5 Flash AK-AL-HOUSE pressed swung 24pp toward Hill day-over-day on the baseline persona (57% today vs 33% yesterday), while Begich dropped 10pp (38% from 48%).

3. AK-SEN pressed (baseline): Claude Opus 4.7 flipped leaders day-over-day — Sullivan 57% yesterday to Peltola 57% today (+14pp to Peltola).

4. AK-SEN pressed (north_slope_village): GPT-5 surged to Peltola 62% from 29% yesterday (+33pp), a large one-day swing.

5. GPT-5 escape-hatch decline rate jumped 17.3pp on AK-GOV vs yesterday (80.2% vs ~78.4% lifetime baseline), and its pressed refusal rate ticked up 3.7pp to 37.7%, the highest among all 10 slots.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5

1. Three Grok versions broke with prediction markets in Alaska's Senate race today. Grok 4, Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 all picked Dan Sullivan, from 57% to 62%, while markets give Mary Peltola 60%.

2. ChatGPT (GPT-5) still would not pick a candidate in 34% of questions today when asked to choose. No other chatbot topped 1%, and GPT-5 was up about 1 point from yesterday.

3. Claude Opus 4.7 flips its Alaska Senate answer by region. It picks Dan Sullivan at 57.0% when no Alaska region is given but Mary Peltola at 62.0% when the voter says they live in Western Alaska.

4. ChatGPT (GPT-5.4 mini) made Matt Claman its top pick for Alaska governor today, at 43.0%. Prediction markets give Claman 2.7%.

5. Gemini 2.5 Flash changes its Alaska House pick by region. It picks Nick Begich III at 48.0% when no region is given but Bill Hill at 52.0% when the voter says they live in Fairbanks.

6. Grok 4 went from picking Dan Sullivan over Mary Peltola yesterday (57% to 43%) to a near tie today (33% Peltola, 19% Sullivan, with the rest declining to choose), a notable single-chatbot shift.

7. Prediction markets give Tom Begich the lead for Alaska governor at 29.5%, but most chatbots that pick a candidate split between Tom Begich and Treg Taylor, with markets giving Taylor just 5.7%.

8. Grok broke with prediction markets in Alaska's Senate race today. Grok 4, Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 all picked Dan Sullivan, from 57.0% to 62.0%, while markets give Mary Peltola 59.5%.

9. ChatGPT (GPT-5) still would not pick a candidate in 34.0% of questions today when asked to choose. No other chatbot topped 1.0%, and GPT-5 was up 1.4pp from yesterday.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. AI answers leaned Peltola in the Alaska Senate race today, with 57.0% for her in the main direct-choice test, close to prediction markets that give her a 59.5% chance against Sullivan.

2. Grok 4 and Grok 4.3 named Nick Begich III in 100% of direct-choice answers about Alaska's House race across all four voter profiles shown today.

3. Claude Opus 4.7 flips its Alaska Senate pick based on where the voter lives, choosing Sullivan 57.0% for the default voter but Peltola 71.0% when the voter says they live in Western Alaska.

4. AI chatbots split widely on Alaska's Governor race, with Tom Begich the modest top pick at 25.0% while prediction markets agree he leads at 29.5%.

5. ChatGPT GPT-5.5 changed sharply from yesterday, falling from a 95.3% decline rate to 27.4% when allowed not to answer and from 56.0% to 0.4% when asked to choose.

6. ChatGPT GPT-5 was the clear outlier on direct-choice questions today, still refusing 32.5% of the time while every other chatbot was at 0.4% or 0%.

7. Most AI chatbots lean Peltola for the Alaska Senate race today, matching prediction markets that give her a 59.5% chance against Sullivan.

8. Grok 4 and Grok 4.3 unanimously pick Begich for Alaska's House race when forced to choose, recommending him in 100% of answers across every voter region.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5