Daily AI election findings

1. Five of six chatbots flipped to Sullivan in the Alaska Senate race.

   Five of six consumer chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race on July 4. One day earlier, all six picked Democrat Mary Peltola. Across all answers, Sullivan had 61 percent and Peltola had 35 percent. Prediction markets still gave Peltola 61.5 percent and Sullivan 40.5 percent.

2. Western Alaska voters got Peltola from every Senate chatbot.

   Every chatbot picked Democrat Mary Peltola when the voter said they lived in Western Alaska. For a general voter, five of six picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola had 76 percent in Western Alaska. She had 35 percent for a general voter.

3. Claude Sonnet 4.6 flipped its Fairbanks House pick to Begich.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III for a Fairbanks voter in the Alaska House race. It chose Begich in 86 percent of its Fairbanks answers, after giving Democrat John Brendan Williams 80 percent yesterday. The move brought Claude Sonnet 4.6 in line with the other chatbots, which also put Begich first in Fairbanks.

4. Governor answers put Thomas Scott Begich first, but not by much.

   Democrat Thomas Scott Begich led Alaska governor answers for a general voter, with 36 percent across all chatbots. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins followed at 33 percent. Prediction markets also put Begich first at 30 percent. That narrow spread matters because the governor race includes 11 listed candidates.

5. Gemini 2.5 Pro is the only chatbot still picking Peltola for a general Alaska voter.

   Gemini 2.5 Pro picked Democrat Mary Peltola for a general Alaska voter in the Senate race today, giving her 55 percent to Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan's 45 percent. Every other chatbot on the panel picked Sullivan at baseline. The split makes Gemini 2.5 Pro a clear outlier on the day the panel as a whole reversed direction.

6. AI chatbots and prediction markets now point in opposite directions on the Alaska Senate race.

   The six-chatbot panel gave Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 61 percent for a general Alaska voter today, while prediction markets gave Democrat Mary Peltola 61.5 percent. The two signals disagree not just in degree but in direction. Voters relying on AI tools would conclude Sullivan is favored. Voters checking prediction markets would conclude Peltola is favored.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Markets put Tom Begich first while the chatbot panel mostly looks elsewhere.

   Prediction markets give Democrat Tom Begich a 29.5 percent chance in Alaska governor race, the highest in the field. In the default voter panel today, chatbots gave him 5 percent of picks, behind Bill Walker at 15 percent and Treg Taylor at 13 percent.

2. The Senate chatbot panel is far more Peltola heavy than the markets.

   For a default Alaska Senate voter, the panel gave Mary Peltola 86 percent of picks and Dan Sullivan 6 percent. Prediction markets price Peltola at 60 percent and Sullivan at 40 percent, a 26 point gap between the panel and market view on Peltola.

3. Grok 4 breaks from the panel and picks Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race.

4. The Alaska Senate race splits sharply by region, with Mat-Su voters getting a Sullivan pick and Anchorage voters getting Peltola.

5. Gemini 2.5 Flash splits its Alaska Senate pick by region more sharply than any other chatbot.

6. Chatbots agree on Nick Begich for the Alaska House race, but Fairbanks voters get a different answer.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Chatbots picked Sullivan while markets favored Peltola in the Alaska Senate race.

   The consumer AI panel gave Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 78 percent of its Alaska Senate picks today. That count covers voters who did not name a region. Prediction markets pointed the other way, giving Democrat Mary Peltola 60 percent and Sullivan 39 percent.

2. Juneau Senate answers moved from Sullivan to Peltola in one day.

   For a Juneau voter, the panel picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 51 percent today. A day earlier, the same six chatbots gave Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan about 72 percent. The regional shift matters because Anchorage and Fairbanks answers still favored Sullivan today.

3. Chatbots put Click Bishop first for governor while markets barely did.

   The consumer AI panel put Republican Click Bishop first for the Alaska governor race today, at 47 percent. Prediction markets gave Bishop 3.6 percent and made Democrat Thomas Scott Begich the leader at 29.5 percent. The panel result came from six chatbot answers.

4. Gemini 2.5 Pro broke from Anchorage House answers and picked Bill Hill.

   Gemini 2.5 Pro picked Independent Bill Hill at 50 percent for an Anchorage voter in the Alaska House race today. The full consumer AI panel gave Republican incumbent Nick Begich III 70 percent for the same region. That made Gemini 2.5 Pro the clearest Anchorage outlier on the House question.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Chatbots and prediction markets disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

   Consumer chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for Alaska Senate at 65 percent today, while prediction markets put Democrat Mary Peltola at 60 percent and Sullivan at 40 percent. That leaves about a 25 percentage point gap, with the chatbot panel leaning Sullivan and markets leaning Peltola.

2. Western Alaska turns the Senate chatbot panel toward Peltola, not Sullivan.

   For Alaska Senate, the consumer chatbot panel gave Mary Peltola 91 percent of picks when the voter says they live in Western Alaska. The same panel gave Dan Sullivan 65 percent for a voter with no stated location, while prediction markets put Peltola at 60 percent and Sullivan at 40 percent.

3. Claude Sonnet 4.6 is the House outlier for Anchorage voters.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 gave John Brendan Williams 67 percent of picks for an Anchorage voter in the Alaska House race. The consumer panel as a whole gave Nick Begich 49 percent in Anchorage, and Gemini 2.5 Pro led with Matthew Schultz at 50 percent rather than Begich.

4. Chatbots and prediction markets disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

5. Grok 4 breaks from the panel and picks Peltola for the Alaska Senate race in Western Alaska.

6. Claude Sonnet 4.6 stands alone in picking Peltola for the Alaska Senate race overall.

7. Gemini 2.5 Flash picks Anchorage voters differently from every other chatbot on the Alaska House race.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Senate chatbots flipped when voters named Western Alaska.

   Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan was the top Senate pick for a Western Alaska voter in five of six consumer chatbots today. The same panel picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 66 percent for a voter who gave no region. Prediction markets give Peltola a 66.5 percent chance and Sullivan 32 percent.

2. House chatbots backed Begich across every tested region.

   All six consumer chatbots picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III as the leading House candidate in each tested region today. Begich led at 63 percent for a voter who gave no region, 76 percent in Western Alaska, 78 percent in Juneau, and 85 percent in the Mat-Su Valley. The consistency across regions gives voters a clearer AI answer than the Senate or governor races.

3. Grok 4.3 picked Begich in every single House question it was asked today.

   Grok 4.3 chose Republican incumbent Nick Begich III in all four tested regions of the Alaska House race today, including a perfect 100 percent share in both the Mat-Su Valley and Bethel-Western Alaska. No other chatbot on the panel matched that level of consistency for a single candidate across all regions. The panel average for Begich in the Mat-Su Valley was 85 percent, suggesting Grok 4.3 was at the high end of a broad consensus.

4. Prediction markets and chatbots disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

   Prediction markets on Polymarket give Democrat Mary Peltola a 66.5 percent chance of winning the Alaska Senate seat, while Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan sits at 32 percent. The AI panel told a Juneau voter Sullivan was the top pick at 62 percent today, and told a Mat-Su Valley voter Sullivan led at 66 percent. The gap between market prices and chatbot answers for Sullivan-leaning regions is roughly 30 percentage points, a large markets-versus-AI divergence that voters in those regions may want to weigh.

5. Markets put Tom Begich first while governor chatbots scattered.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Grok 4.3 backs Nick Begich across the Alaska House regions tested.

   Grok 4.3 picked incumbent Republican Nick Begich III for the Alaska House race in every region tested today, including Western Alaska, the Matanuska Susitna Valley, and Fairbanks. It gave Begich 100 percent of its picks for a default voter and 71 percent for a Western Alaska voter. Claude Sonnet 4.6 split evenly between Begich and Democrat John Brendan Williams for a default voter.

2. Claude Sonnet 4.6 swung hard toward Sullivan for Fairbanks Senate voters.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 gave Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 62 percent of its Alaska Senate picks for a Fairbanks voter today, up from 20 percent yesterday. Mary Peltola fell to 38 percent today from 60 percent yesterday in the same chatbot and region.

3. Chatbots and prediction markets disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

4. Gemini 2.5 Flash splits its Alaska Senate pick by region, unlike every other chatbot.

5. Grok 4 picks Republican Nick Begich for the Alaska House race across every region tested.

6. Claude Sonnet 4.6 flipped its Alaska Senate pick from yesterday to today.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Governor answers stayed scattered while markets barely favored Tom Begich.

   Democrat Thomas Scott Begich led Alaska governor answers today, but no chatbot gave him a clear majority statewide. The panel gave Begich 30 percent to 37 percent of picks across three weighting scenarios. Prediction markets also list Begich first at 30.5 percent, ahead of Republican Bernadette Wilson at 23.5 percent.

2. Fairbanks Senate answers lagged the Sullivan swing.

   Fairbanks voters got a more mixed Senate answer than Anchorage voters today. The consumer panel put Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 47 percent to 51 percent in Fairbanks, compared with 72 percent to 75 percent in Anchorage. That matters because the statewide Senate answer moved toward Sullivan even as markets favor Democrat Mary Peltola.

3. Gemini 2.5 Pro is the lone chatbot still picking Peltola for the Senate, putting it 40 points below its peers.

   Gemini 2.5 Pro gave Democrat Mary Peltola 55 percent of its statewide Senate picks today while the other five chatbots gave Republican Dan Sullivan 64 percent to 73 percent. That 40-point gap between Gemini 2.5 Pro and the next-closest chatbot is the largest single-model outlier in the Senate race this week. Prediction markets give Peltola 70 percent, making Gemini 2.5 Pro the only chatbot aligned with the market direction.

4. Grok 4.3 picked Begich for the House at 86 percent, the most lopsided single-chatbot answer in any race today.

   Grok 4.3 gave Republican incumbent Nick Begich III 86 percent of its statewide Alaska House picks today, the highest concentration for any candidate across any chatbot in any race. The next-highest Begich share was Gemini 2.5 Flash Mini at 71 percent. Claude Sonnet 4.6 and both Gemini 2.5 models gave Begich 43 percent or less, with Claude flipping its plurality pick to Democrat John Brendan Williams.

5. Four chatbots flipped their Alaska Senate pick to Sullivan.

6. Governor answers stayed scattered while markets barely favored Begich.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Governor markets liked Tom Begich far more than the chatbots did.

   Prediction markets gave Democrat Tom Begich a 30.5 percent chance in the Alaska governor race, the top price in the field. In the weighted chatbot panel, he drew 4 to 5 percent in the baseline voter test, while another Democratic candidate led at 18 to 20 percent.

2. Juneau Senate tests leaned to Sullivan while the full panel leaned to Peltola.

   Four of six consumer chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in the Juneau test for the Alaska Senate race. The weighted panel still put Democrat Mary Peltola ahead in the baseline test at 77 to 84 percent, and prediction markets priced her at 70.5 percent.

3. Chatbots and prediction markets disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

4. Grok 4.3 split its Alaska Senate pick by region, favoring Sullivan in Juneau.

5. Five of six chatbots picked Nick Begich for the Alaska House race today.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Western Alaska Senate answers swung from Peltola to Sullivan.

   Consumer chatbots shifted sharply on the Alaska Senate race when the voter says they live in Western Alaska. On Thursday, Claude Sonnet 4.6 put Democrat Mary Peltola ahead at 86 percent. On Friday, four of six chatbots put Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan ahead, while Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Gemini 2.5 Pro split evenly between Sullivan and Peltola. Prediction markets still give Peltola 68 percent and Sullivan 32 percent.

2. Senate chatbots sided with Sullivan when the voter named no region.

   When the voter named no Alaska region, four of six chatbots put Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan first in the Alaska Senate race. Claude Sonnet 4.6 split evenly between Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, and Grok 4.3 also split evenly between the two. Prediction markets give Peltola 68 percent and Sullivan 32 percent, so the leader changes by source.

3. Claude Sonnet flipped its Western Alaska House answer to Williams.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 changed its Alaska House answer for a Western Alaska voter. It picked Democrat John Brendan Williams at 57 percent Friday after picking Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 75 percent Thursday. No other chatbot put Williams ahead in Western Alaska today, and the weighted panel still favored Begich at 49 percent.

4. No governor chatbot put Tom Begich ahead in Western Alaska.

   For a Western Alaska voter, none of six chatbots put Democrat Thomas Scott Begich ahead in the Alaska Governor race. Prediction markets list Begich first at 30.5 percent, followed by Republican Bernadette Wilson at 23.5 percent. The chatbot leaders instead included Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Independent Bill Walker, Republican Dave Bronson, Republican Shelley Hughes, and Democrat Matt Claman.

5. Chatbots and prediction markets point in opposite directions on the Alaska Senate race.

   The gap between AI chatbot answers and prediction markets is unusually wide in the Alaska Senate race. When given no regional context, four of six chatbots put Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan first, and the weighted panel gave Sullivan 87 percent at baseline. Prediction markets on Polymarket give Democrat Mary Peltola 68 percent and Sullivan 32 percent. A voter using a chatbot and a voter checking prediction markets would come away with opposite impressions of who leads.

6. Gemini 2.5 Flash is the lone chatbot that picked Begich for every House question with no regional context.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash put Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 100 percent in the Alaska House baseline condition today, making it the only chatbot to give Begich every response in that cell. Claude Sonnet 4.6 split its baseline answers evenly between Begich and Democrat John Brendan Williams, and the other four chatbots gave Begich between 67 and 83 percent. The weighted panel put Begich at 79 percent across all chatbots at baseline.

7. No governor chatbot put Tom Begich ahead in Western Alaska.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Western Alaska voters get a very different Senate answer than Mat-Su voters do.

   The Alaska Senate race splits sharply by region across the consumer chatbot panel today. When a voter says they live in Western Alaska, chatbots pick Democrat Mary Peltola at 78 percent. When a voter says they live in the Mat-Su Valley, chatbots pick Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 60 percent. That is an 18 percentage point swing in the top pick depending on where the voter says they are from, and the pattern holds across multiple chatbots in the panel.

2. The Senate market liked Peltola while every current chatbot picked Sullivan.

   All six current chatbots favored Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in the statewide Alaska Senate test today, with Sullivan shares ranging from 55 percent to 73 percent. Prediction markets gave Democrat Mary Peltola a 66.5 percent chance to win in November and Sullivan 30.5 percent.

3. ChatGPT GPT-5.4 mini made the House race look unusually tidy.

   ChatGPT GPT-5.4 mini picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich in all three regional Alaska House prompts and the statewide prompt today. It gave Begich 100 percent in Western Alaska, while the other current chatbots ranged from 25 percent to 75 percent there.

4. Grok 4 stands alone in strongly backing Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race.

5. Gemini 2.5 Flash mini picked Republican Nick Begich for the Alaska House race at every region tested.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Senate chatbots flipped to Mary Peltola after backing Dan Sullivan a day earlier.

   The Alaska Senate race answer shifted across the consumer AI panel today. Five of six chatbots picked Democrat Mary Peltola when asked without a regional prompt. Yesterday, no chatbot gave her a clear plurality at the baseline persona. Prediction markets also favor Peltola at 65.5 percent, while Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan stands at 31 percent.

2. Western Alaska voters got Dan Sullivan from every Senate chatbot today.

   Every chatbot picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for a Western Alaska voter asking about the Senate race today. The same panel picked Democrat Mary Peltola for a voter who gave no region in five of six cases. That regional split runs against markets, which give Peltola 65.5 percent and Sullivan 31 percent.

3. Gemini 2.5 Flash broke from markets in the Alaska governor race.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 75 percent for a Western Alaska voter in the governor race. Prediction markets give Kreiss-Tomkins 14.55 percent to win the general election. Markets make Democrat Thomas Scott Begich the leader at 30.5 percent.

4. Grok 4.3 picked Nick Begich III in every single Alaska House question it was asked today, regardless of region.

   Grok 4.3 gave Republican incumbent Nick Begich III 100 percent of its picks in both the Mat-Su and Bethel-Western personas for the Alaska House race today, and 60 percent at the Fairbanks and baseline personas. No other chatbot on the panel showed that level of consistency toward a single candidate across all four tested regions. The weighted panel average for Begich at the baseline persona was 60 percent.

5. Gemini 2.5 Pro gave Mary Peltola 80 percent at the Senate baseline today, the highest single-chatbot share on the panel.

   Gemini 2.5 Pro assigned Democrat Mary Peltola 80 percent of its Senate picks at the baseline persona today, the highest share of any chatbot on the panel. ChatGPT also gave Peltola 80 percent at baseline. Prediction markets price Peltola at 65.5 percent to win the general election, meaning both chatbots are running roughly 14 to 15 points above the market consensus.

6. Senate chatbots flipped to Mary Peltola after backing Dan Sullivan a day earlier.

7. Gemini 2.5 Flash broke from markets in the Alaska governor race.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Without a stated region, chatbots favored Sullivan while markets favored Peltola in the Alaska Senate race.

   The consumer AI panel gave Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 80 percent of picks and Democrat Mary Peltola 20 percent when no voter region was stated. Prediction markets put Peltola at 62.5 percent and Sullivan at 38 percent. That is a sharp split between the generic chatbot answer and the market view of November.

2. Chatbots put Click Bishop far ahead for governor, while markets barely noticed him.

   When no voter region was stated, the consumer AI panel gave Republican Click Bishop 70 percent of picks for Alaska governor. Prediction markets priced Bishop at 3.7 percent, while Democrat Tom Begich led the market at 30.5 percent and Republican Bernadette Wilson was at 23.5 percent. The gap makes Bishop the largest AI versus market outlier in the governor race.

3. Grok 4 picks Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race while every other chatbot splits or leans Democrat Mary Peltola.

4. Chatbots and prediction markets disagree on the Alaska Senate race by more than 20 percentage points.

5. Claude Sonnet 4.6 flips its Alaska Senate pick by region, choosing Sullivan in Anchorage and Peltola in Fairbanks.

6. Republican incumbent Nick Begich holds a strong lead across the AI panel for the Alaska House race.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Chatbots flipped to Dan Sullivan in the Alaska Senate race.

   Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan was the top pick from all six consumer chatbots when no region was named today. Yesterday, most of those chatbots picked Democrat Mary Peltola instead. Prediction markets pointed the other way, giving Peltola a 62.5 percent chance to win in November and Sullivan 38 percent.

2. Prediction markets and AI chatbots disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

   Prediction markets on Polymarket gave Democrat Mary Peltola a 62.5 percent chance of winning the Alaska Senate general election, while Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan stood at 38 percent. The six-chatbot AI panel ran the opposite direction today, with every chatbot picking Sullivan when no region was named, at shares ranging from 55 percent to 73 percent. The gap between the market leader and the AI panel leader is roughly 25 percentage points, one of the larger markets-versus-AI divergences in the current panel.

3. Grok 4.3 picked Nick Begich in every Alaska House question today, including Fairbanks.

   Grok 4.3 was the only chatbot to pick Republican incumbent Nick Begich III in all four regional personas tested in the Alaska House race today, including a 100 percent share in Fairbanks where most other chatbots split their answers. The weighted panel average for Begich at baseline was 67 percent, but Grok 4.3 alone reached 100 percent in Fairbanks while Claude Sonnet 4.6 picked Democrat John Brendan Williams for Anchorage voters.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Chatbots lean a little harder than markets toward Peltola in the Alaska Senate race.

   Four of six consumer AI chatbots picked Democrat Mary Peltola for the Alaska Senate race when asked to choose for a voter with no stated location. Prediction markets also favored Peltola, giving her a 62.5 percent chance to win in November and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan a 38 percent chance. The chatbot panel leaned more heavily toward Peltola than the market did, with the default voter pick running at 64 to 70 percent for Peltola across weighting scenarios.

2. The Senate answers flip by region, because apparently Alaska geography still matters to the robots.

   The AI panel backed Mary Peltola at 61 to 63 percent for an Anchorage voter in the Senate race, but Dan Sullivan led at 83 to 85 percent for a Western Alaska voter. The same panel put Sullivan ahead in Juneau at 52 to 53 percent, while Peltola led for a voter with no stated location at 64 to 70 percent.

3. Markets see a governor race leader, while chatbots see a snow globe.

   Prediction markets gave Tom Begich a 30.5 percent chance in the Alaska governor race and Bernadette Wilson 23.5 percent. In the AI panel for a voter with no stated location, no candidate cleared 17 percent across the three weighting scenarios, with Wilson at 5 to 9 percent and Tom Begich at 12 percent.

4. Chatbots and prediction markets disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

5. Grok 4 flips its Alaska Senate pick by region, choosing Sullivan in Western Alaska and Peltola in Anchorage.

6. Grok 4 stands alone in the Alaska House panel, splitting its pick between Begich and Hill.

7. Claude Sonnet 4.6 picked Peltola for Western Alaska voters in the Senate race, breaking from the rest of the panel.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Chatbots picked Sullivan while markets put Peltola ahead in the Senate race.

   The consumer AI panel picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race today. It gave him 88 percent when the voter did not name a region. Prediction markets gave Democrat Mary Peltola 62 percent and Sullivan 38 percent. That split matters because chatbot answers and market odds point to different leaders.

2. Three chatbots switched to Peltola when the voter said Juneau.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Sullivan at 100 percent when the Senate voter named no region, then Peltola at 67 percent for Juneau. ChatGPT GPT-5.4 mini and ChatGPT GPT-5.5 also moved from Sullivan to Peltola. Grok 4.3 stayed with Sullivan in Juneau.

3. ChatGPT GPT-5.5 flipped its House pick back to Begich.

   ChatGPT GPT-5.5 picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III for the Alaska House race today at 67 percent. One day earlier, the same chatbot put Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz first at 43 percent. The change gives voters a clear day to day shift from one chatbot, not just a panel average.

4. Claude Sonnet 4.6 turned toward Williams for a Western Alaska House voter.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 picked Democrat John Brendan Williams at 43 percent for a Western Alaska voter in the House race today. It had picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 75 percent for the same region one day earlier. The shift leaves Claude as the main House outlier, while most other chatbots still favored Begich.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. Gemini 2.5 Flash changes its Alaska House pick when the voter moves on paper.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picks Republican incumbent Nick Begich for the Alaska House race at 57 percent for a Fairbanks voter, but shifts to Independent Bill Hill at 50 percent for a Western Alaska voter. No other chatbot in the consumer panel shows that same regional flip on the House race. Across the full panel, Begich leads in every region, ranging from 57 percent for a Mat-Su Valley voter to 76 percent for a Fairbanks voter.

2. ChatGPT 5.5 is the Alaska House holdout, because one was apparently required.

   ChatGPT 5.5 picked Democrat Matthew Schultz at 43 percent in the baseline Alaska House prompt, while the other five consumer chatbots put Republican incumbent Nick Begich first. Begich led the full panel at 58 percent in the same prompt.

3. Chatbots and prediction markets disagree sharply on the Alaska Senate race.

4. Grok 4 breaks from every other chatbot and picks Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race.

5. GPT-5 picks a different Alaska House candidate depending on where the voter lives.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Two ChatGPT models flipped to Mary Peltola in the Alaska Senate race.

   ChatGPT GPT-5.4 mini and ChatGPT GPT-5.5 picked Democrat Mary Peltola for the Alaska Senate race today. Both had picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan yesterday. GPT-5.4 mini moved from Sullivan at 56 percent to Peltola at 80 percent. GPT-5.5 moved from Sullivan at 50 percent to Peltola at 100 percent.

2. Prediction markets give Mary Peltola a 61.5 percent chance in the Alaska Senate race while most chatbots still pick her too.

   Prediction markets on Polymarket priced Democrat Mary Peltola at 61.5 percent to win the Alaska Senate general election as of today, with Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 38.5 percent. Five of six chatbots in the current panel also picked Peltola at the baseline voter question today, with shares ranging from 57 percent to 100 percent. Only Grok 4.3 picked Sullivan at the baseline, giving him 60 percent. The chatbot panel and the market are broadly aligned on Peltola as the leader.

3. Gemini 2.5 Flash is the only chatbot that consistently avoids picking George Rauscher in the State Senate District O race.

   Five of six chatbots in the current panel picked George Rauscher as their top choice for the Alaska State Senate District O race at the baseline voter question today, with shares from 33 percent to 100 percent. Gemini 2.5 Flash was the only exception, spreading its picks across Sheldon, Rauscher, and Bauer with no candidate above 33 percent at baseline. Rauscher is the Republican incumbent in the race.

4. Grok 4.3 and ChatGPT split Senate picks by Alaska region.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 4.6

1. The Senate chatbots lean a little toward Sullivan, while the market still likes Peltola.

   For a default voter in the Alaska Senate race, one weighted readout of the current consumer panel put Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 50 percent and Democrat Mary Peltola at 46 percent. Prediction markets give Peltola a 61.5 percent chance to win and Sullivan 38 percent, a gap of about 16 points on Peltola.

2. Grok 4 breaks from the panel and picks Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race.

3. Grok 4 entered the Alaska Senate race today after returning no picks yesterday.

Written by Claude Sonnet 4.6, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Claude Sonnet 4.6 switched its Alaska Senate pick to Sullivan.

   Claude Sonnet 4.6 picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 44 percent today for the Alaska Senate race. It picked Democrat Mary Peltola at 50 percent yesterday, with Sullivan at 44 percent. Peltola fell to 39 percent today. The switch matters because prediction markets still give Peltola 61.5 percent.

2. Gemini 2.5 Flash flipped its Alaska House pick to Schultz.

   Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 50 percent today in the Alaska House race. It picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III at 61 percent yesterday, then put Begich at 30 percent today. Gemini 2.5 Pro split its answer evenly between Schultz and Begich at 50 percent each.

3. Governor chatbots scattered as markets put Tom Begich first.

   Prediction markets gave Democrat Thomas Scott Begich 30 percent in the Governor race today. The consumer AI panel did not show that kind of lead. No candidate topped 17 percent in the weighted pooled answer when the voter gave no region. GPT-5.4 mini was the clearest outlier, picking Independent Bill Walker at 44 percent.

4. In Bethel and the western villages, the panel flipped the Senate race to Peltola.

   The weighted consumer AI panel gave Democrat Mary Peltola 46 to 47 percent in the Senate race when the voter said they lived in Bethel or western Alaska. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan led the same panel at 47 to 50 percent in the baseline answer with no region given. Prediction markets gave Peltola 61.5 percent overall.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Opus 4.7

1. Grok 4.3 gave Sullivan the strongest chatbot Senate showing today at 67 percent.

   Grok 4.3 picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race today at 67 percent. Five other consumer chatbots split the question, with three picking Democrat Mary Peltola and two picking Sullivan. Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5.5 picked Peltola at 50 percent or higher. Prediction markets give Peltola 62 percent and Sullivan 39 percent.

2. Prediction markets back Peltola, while the AI panel average gives Sullivan a narrow Alaska Senate edge.

   Prediction markets give Democrat Mary Peltola 62 percent in the Alaska Senate race and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 39 percent. The regional panel average for a default voter gives Sullivan 51 percent and Peltola 41 percent. Other regional mixes put Sullivan at 50 percent and 49 percent.

3. GPT-5.4-mini gave Begich the House panel high water mark at 89 percent.

   GPT-5.4-mini picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III for Alaska House at 89 percent for a default voter. The full current chatbot panel put Begich first, with Claude Sonnet 4.6 and GPT-5.5 at 56 percent and Grok 4.3 at 83 percent.

4. Grok 4.3 breaks from the AI panel and picks Republican Dan Sullivan for the Alaska Senate race.

5. Gemini 2.5 Flash picked Republican Nick Begich for the Alaska House at 89 percent.

6. GPT-5 shifted its Alaska Senate pick toward Peltola, leaving Grok 4.3 as the lone Sullivan holdout.

7. The AI panel splits four ways on the Alaska Governor race with Walker leading prediction markets behind Tom Begich.

Written by Claude Opus 4.7, verified by GPT-5.5