Daily AI election findings

1. Chatbots picked Kreiss-Tomkins in Alaska's governor primary, but missed the order behind him.

   Alaska voters decided the governor primary on August 18. Chatbots picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins more than anyone else, at 15.8 percent, and voters also put him first, at 22.5 percent. The match stops there. This was a top four primary, so order decided who reached November. The chatbots put Republican Treg Taylor ahead of Republican Bernadette Wilson and Republican Dave Bronson, but voters put Wilson third at 10.0 percent and Bronson fourth at 8.1 percent, advancing both. Taylor finished fifth at 7.3 percent. The count remains unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting. The biggest miss was Democrat Thomas Scott Begich, whom chatbots picked at 9.5 percent while voters put him second at 20.8 percent.

2. Chatbots matched the order in Alaska's House primary, but overstated Begich's strength

   Alaska voters decided the U.S. House primary on August 18. Chatbots picked incumbent Nick Begich III, Republican, first at 65.8 percent. Voters also put Begich first, at 44.6 percent, and he advanced. The count remains unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting. The chatbots had the field in the same order as voters among the candidates they were asked about, but they overstated Begich's support by 21.2 points. In this top four primary, the ranking decides who reaches the November ballot.

3. Chatbots still pick Sullivan, but Alaska voters put Peltola first in the Senate primary

   Alaska voters decided the Senate primary on August 18. Chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan more often than Democrat Mary Peltola, at 51.7 percent to 45.9 percent. Voters put Peltola first at 49.5 percent and Sullivan second at 41.4 percent, and both advanced in the top four primary. The count remains unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting. The chatbots had the two candidates in reversed order.

4. Chatbots moved toward Rauscher in District O but still rank Bauer above Sheldon after voters did not

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Fourteen days after Alaska voters picked Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, the chatbots and the count still do not fully agree on the order behind him

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, fourteen days ago. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins won the primary with 22.5 percent and advanced, along with Thomas Scott Begich at 20.8 percent, Bernadette Wilson at 10 percent and Dave Bronson at 8.1 percent. The chatbots picked Kreiss-Tomkins first too, but they undersold Begich badly, rating him near 9.9 percent when voters gave him 20.8. They also ranked Treg Taylor, who did not advance, ahead of both Wilson and Bronson, who did. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts in. The chatbots got the winner right. They still have not sorted out who else belongs in the top four.

2. Fourteen days after Alaska voters picked Begich for U.S. House, chatbots still rate him far above his real vote share

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18. Incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, won with 44.6 percent, and Bill Hill and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz also advanced. The chatbots picked Begich first too, matching the order for the top spot, but they had rated him at 62.8 percent, about 18 points above his actual finish. The full order still lines up correctly through the four candidates who were compared, so the ranking itself held up. The count is unofficial with 401 of 403 precincts in, though Begich's win margin is not in doubt. This gap between the chatbots' confidence and the real result has held steady for nearly two weeks now, with no sign the panel has adjusted down.

3. Fourteen days after District O voted, chatbots still rank Bauer ahead of Sheldon, though all three candidates move on.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18. Incumbent Republican George Rauscher finished first with 38.8 percent, and chatbots agreed he was the strongest pick, putting him first too. Chatbots rate Democrat Peter Bauer at 27.4 percent, ahead of Republican Ryan Sheldon, who they put at just 12.2 percent. Voters saw it the opposite way, tying Sheldon and Bauer at 30.6 percent each. That gap, 18.4 points between what the chatbots said about Sheldon and what voters actually gave him, remains the miss. The count is unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts in.

4. Markets moved toward Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, a little late for voters who already counted the ballots.

   Prediction markets put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 59.8 percent in the governor race, up 9.7 points from the prior day. The move was the only significant day over day shift in the movement block, but the race already has an unofficial result, with Kreiss-Tomkins first at 22.5 percent.

5. Fourteen days after District O voted, chatbots still rank Bauer ahead of Sheldon, though all three candidates move on.

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Chatbots picked the governor primary winner, but missed the cutline order

   Thirteen days after voters decided Alaska's top four governor primary on August 18, the chatbots picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first at 13.9 percent. Voters also put him first, at 22.5 percent, and he advanced. But the chatbot order was only partial. In a top four primary, ranking decides who reaches November, and the chatbots put Republican Treg Taylor ahead of Republican Dave Bronson. Voters put Bronson fourth at 8.1 percent, enough to advance, and Taylor fifth at 7.3 percent. The biggest miss was Democrat Thomas Scott Begich, whom chatbots picked 11.6 percent of the time while voters put him at 20.8 percent. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting.

2. Chatbots matched voters on Begich first, but still rated him far above his House vote

   Thirteen days after voters decided this on August 18, the chatbots picked incumbent Republican Nick Begich III first for U.S. House, at 66.0 percent. Voters also put him first, at 44.6 percent, so the chatbot order matched the unofficial count among the candidates tested, but overstated his share by 21.4 points. Bill Hill finished second at 32.5 percent and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz third at 8.1 percent. In a top four primary, that order decides who reaches November. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting.

3. Alaska's AI panel and the prediction markets are reading the Senate race the same way, and both are wrong about who actually won.

   In the Senate primary, both the chatbot panel and Polymarket traders picked Republican Dan Sullivan over Democrat Mary Peltola. Markets gave Peltola a 65.5 percent chance and chatbots gave Sullivan the edge at 53.0 percent to 44.7 percent. Voters put Peltola first with 49.5 percent of the vote to Sullivan's 41.4 percent. Both advanced to November, but the pattern is worth flagging: two independent signals converged on the wrong frontrunner.

4. Alaska's governor race stayed the tightest contest on the board, even after votes were counted.

   The AI governor field showed the highest closeness score of any Alaska race this week, entropy 0.885, labeled tight in the movement data. That uncertainty proved earned: voters split ten ways, with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advancing at just 22.5 percent, the lowest winning share of any race on the board, and only 1.7 points separated fourth-place Dave Bronson from fifth-place Treg Taylor, who was eliminated.

5. Thirteen days after District O voted, chatbots still put Bauer ahead of Sheldon

6. Thirteen days after voters put Peltola first, chatbots still picked Sullivan for Senate

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Twelve days after Alaska voters picked Begich for U.S. House, chatbots still rate him far above his actual vote share.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, twelve days ago. Incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, won the primary with 44.6 percent and advanced, along with Bill Hill, an Independent, at 32.5 percent, and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 8.1 percent. Democrat John Brendan Williams finished fourth at 2.7 percent and did not advance. Chatbots picked Begich first too, and got the order right behind him, matching voters on the full lineup. But the chatbots had rated Begich at 68.8 percent, nearly 24 points above his real 44.6 percent finish. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting.

2. Twelve days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, twelve days ago. Mary Peltola finished first with 49.5 percent, Dan Sullivan second with 41.4 percent, and both advanced to November. The chatbot panel still points to Sullivan more often, at 52.9 percent versus Peltola at 45.3 percent, getting the order backward compared with the vote. The count is unofficial with 401 of 403 precincts in, but the margin is well outside what late absentee ballots could flip.

3. Twelve days after Alaska voters picked Begich for U.S. House, chatbots still rate him far above his actual vote share

4. Twelve days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Eleven days after voters put Peltola first, chatbots still picked Sullivan for Senate

   Chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska's U.S. Senate race, at 52.7 percent. Voters decided this on August 18, 11 days ago, and put Democrat Mary Peltola first at 49.5 percent while Sullivan finished second at 41.4 percent. Both advanced from the top four primary, but the order matters because it decides who reaches the November ballot. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting. The chatbots had the two candidate order reversed, and their biggest miss was Sullivan, whom they put 11.3 points above his actual vote share.

2. Chatbots still missed Alaska voters first choice for governor

   Eleven days after Alaska voters decided the top four governor primary on August 18, chatbots still did not match the result. Chatbots picked Democrat Thomas Scott Begich most often, at 17.1 percent. Voters put Democrat Jonathan Kreiss Tomkins first, at 22.5 percent, and Begich second, at 20.8 percent. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting. This is a top four primary, so the order decides who reaches the November ballot. The chatbots also overstated Independent Bill Walker by the most, picking him at 15.7 percent after voters put him ninth at 4.5 percent.

3. Chatbots matched voters on Begich first, but still overstated his House primary share

   Eleven days after voters decided Alaska's U.S. House primary on August 18, the chatbots and voters agreed on the order of the candidates they were asked about. Chatbots picked incumbent Republican Nick Begich III first at 67.6 percent. Voters put Begich first at 44.6 percent, with the count still unofficial and 401 of 403 precincts reporting. Begich was the panel's biggest miss, 23.0 points above his actual vote share. The chatbots had the field in close to the right order, but this is not new today.

4. Eleven days after District O voted, chatbots still put Bauer ahead of Sheldon.

   Eleven days after voters decided this on August 18, the chatbots still only partly match the result. Chatbots picked incumbent George Rauscher (R) first, at 41.7 percent, and voters also put him first, at 38.8 percent. But chatbots picked Democrat Peter Bauer second, at 34.6 percent, while voters put Republican Ryan Sheldon there, at 30.6 percent. Sheldon was the biggest miss, with chatbots picking him 16.1 percent and voters giving him 30.6 percent. This is a top four primary, so order decides who reaches November. All three advanced. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Ten days after Alaska voters picked Begich, chatbots still rate him far above his actual primary share

   Alaska voters decided the U.S. House primary on August 18, ten days ago. Republican incumbent Begich finished first at 46.1 percent and advanced, along with Hill, an independent, at 30.9 percent, and Democrat Schultz at 8.0 percent. Democrat Williams did not advance, at 2.6 percent. The chatbots picked Begich first too, matching voters on the winner and the order all the way down, but they had rated him at 68.2 percent, 22.1 points above his real total. That gap has been the running story here for over a week and has not closed. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting.

2. Ten days after Alaska voted, chatbots still rank Bauer above Sheldon in District O

   All three District O candidates advance to November regardless, since this top four primary only had three names on the ballot. But the chatbots still have not caught up to what voters actually did on August 18. Republican incumbent Rauscher topped both the panel and the vote, chatbots picked him at 42.2 percent and voters gave him 39.8 percent. The miss is lower down. Chatbots put Democrat Peter Bauer second at 33.1 percent, ahead of Republican Ryan Sheldon at 15.3 percent. Voters said the opposite, Sheldon took 31.6 percent to Bauer's 28.6 percent. That is a 16.3 point gap between what the chatbots say about Sheldon and what he actually got. The count is unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts in.

3. The governor market picked Wilson while voters picked Kreiss-Tomkins, because Alaska apparently needed one more split screen.

   In the governor primary, the unofficial count put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first at 21.6 percent, while markets gave Bernadette Wilson the top win probability at 36.5 percent. The chatbot panel most often named Thomas Scott Begich at 18.9 percent, not Kreiss-Tomkins, who was at 11.1 percent.

4. Ten days after Alaska voters picked Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, chatbots finally stopped naming Walker and picked the wrong winner instead

5. Ten days after Alaska voters picked Begich, chatbots still rate him far above his actual primary share

6. Ten days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

7. Ten days after Alaska voted, chatbots still rank Bauer above Sheldon in District O

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Chatbots no longer put Walker first, but they still missed Alaska voters choice for governor.

   Nine days after voters decided Alaska's top four governor primary on August 18, the chatbots no longer point first to independent Bill Walker. They picked Democrat Thomas Scott Begich most often, at 17.8 percent, while voters put Democrat Jonathan Kreiss Tomkins first, at 21.6 percent. Begich finished second at 20.1 percent and advanced. Kreiss Tomkins, Begich, Republican Bernadette Wilson and Republican Dave Bronson advanced to November. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. Their biggest miss remains Walker, picked at 17.2 percent by chatbots but ninth with 4.5 percent of the vote.

2. Nine days after Peltola led the Senate primary, chatbots still pick Sullivan.

   Chatbots picked incumbent Dan Sullivan, a Republican, first in Alaska's U.S. Senate race, at 55.0 percent. Voters decided this on August 18, nine days ago, and put Democrat Mary Peltola first at 48.1 percent, while Sullivan finished second at 42.7 percent. Both advanced in the top four primary, where order decides who reaches November. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. The chatbots had the two candidate order reversed, and their biggest miss was Sullivan, whom they rated 12.3 points higher than his actual vote share.

3. Chatbots matched voters on Begich first, but still overstated his House primary share

   Nine days after voters decided Alaska's U.S. House primary on August 18, the chatbots picked incumbent Nick Begich III (R) first at 67.0 percent. Voters also put Begich first, at 46.1 percent, with the count still unofficial and 400 of 403 precincts reporting. Among the candidates the chatbots were asked about, they had the order right. Their biggest miss was Begich's level, 20.9 points above his actual vote share. This is a top four primary, so the order decides who reaches the November ballot.

4. Nine days after District O voted, chatbots still put Bauer ahead of Sheldon.

   Nine days after voters decided State Senate District O on August 18, the chatbots still picked Republican incumbent George Rauscher first, at 42.8 percent, matching voters, who put him first at 39.8 percent. But the match was only partial. The chatbots put Democrat Peter Bauer second at 32.1 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon third at 16.2 percent. Voters put Sheldon second at 31.6 percent and Bauer third at 28.6 percent. This is a top four primary, so all three candidates advanced to November. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting.

5. Chatbots no longer put Walker first, but they still missed Alaska voters choice for governor

6. Nine days after District O voted, chatbots still put Bauer ahead of Sheldon.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Eight days after Alaska voters picked Kreiss-Tomkins in the primary, chatbots are still stuck on Bill Walker, who finished ninth.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, eight days ago. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins won the primary with 21.6 percent and advances to November along with Thomas Begich, Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. Chatbots have been recommending Bill Walker more than anyone else all along, and he finished ninth with just 4.5 percent, a 16 point gap between what the panel said and what happened. The panel also ranked Begich above Kreiss-Tomkins, an order voters flipped, and preferred Treg Taylor to both Wilson and Bronson, who beat him. This is the same lag this site has flagged for over a week. With the field now set for November, the open question is whether the chatbots update once they are asked about the actual four nominees instead of the old primary roster.

2. Eight days after District O voted, chatbots still rank Bauer over Sheldon, and all three advance anyway.

   Since this is a top four primary with only three candidates, incumbent Rauscher, Sheldon and Bauer all advanced to November regardless of order. Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, eight days ago. Rauscher won the vote at 39.8 percent and the chatbots also picked him first, so the top of the panel matched the outcome. But the order below him did not. Chatbots put Bauer ahead of Sheldon, rating Bauer around 33 percent versus Sheldon at 13.9 percent, while voters actually gave Sheldon 31.6 percent to Bauer's 28.6 percent. That gap, nearly 18 points on Sheldon, has shown up in this space for a week straight with no sign the panel has adjusted. The count is unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts in.

3. Eight days after Alaska voters picked Begich, chatbots still rate him well above his actual vote share.

   Alaska voters decided the U.S. House primary on August 18. Incumbent Nick Begich III finished first with 46.1 percent and advanced, followed by Independent Bill Hill at 30.9 percent and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 8.0 percent, both also advancing. Democrat John Brendan Williams finished fourth at 2.6 percent and did not advance. The chatbots picked Begich first too, and got the full order right, matching voters on who advances. But the panel had rated Begich at 63.9 percent, about 18 points higher than his actual 46.1 percent, the biggest miss on the panel this cycle. The count is unofficial with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. This restates a gap already flagged this week, with no new movement in the comparison today.

4. Eight days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, eight days ago. Mary Peltola finished first with 48.1 percent of the vote, and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan took 42.7 percent. Both advanced out of the top four primary. Chatbots asked today still pick Sullivan more often, at 54 percent, well above his actual finish, a gap of 11.3 points. The count is unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. This is the same mismatch reported daily since the primary, chatbots naming Sullivan while voters chose Peltola, and it has not closed.

5. Markets now lean toward Peltola while the chatbot panel still leans toward Sullivan.

   The Senate result gives Mary Peltola the real lead from the primary, and the live market also gives her a 61.5 percent chance to win the general election. The AI panel still picks Dan Sullivan more often, at 54.0 percent to Peltola's 44.3 percent. That is a clean split between what voters just did, what traders price now and what the chatbots still say.

6. Eight days after Alaska voters picked Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, chatbots are still stuck on Bill Walker, who finished ninth

7. Eight days after District O voted, chatbots still rank Bauer over Sheldon, and all three advance anyway

8. Eight days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Seven days after voters put Peltola first, chatbots still pick Sullivan for Senate.

   Seven days after voters decided Alaska's U.S. Senate primary on August 18, chatbots still picked incumbent Dan Sullivan more often than Democrat Mary Peltola. Chatbots picked Sullivan at 52.5 percent and Peltola at 45.8 percent. Voters put Peltola first at 48.1 percent and Sullivan second at 42.7 percent, so the panel disagreed with the result and had the two candidate field in reverse order. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. Both advanced from the top four primary to the November ballot. The biggest miss was Sullivan, whom chatbots picked 9.8 points above his actual vote share.

2. Chatbots matched Alaska voters on the House primary order, while overstating Begich's lead.

   Seven days after voters decided this on August 18, chatbots picked incumbent Nick Begich III first at 64.9 percent. Voters also put Begich first, at 46.1 percent, and he advanced. The chatbot order matched the reported voter order among the listed candidates, Begich, Bill Hill, Matthew Damian Schultz, then John Brendan Williams. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. The biggest miss was size, not order. Chatbots rated Begich 18.8 points above his actual vote share.

3. Seven days after District O voted, chatbots still put Bauer ahead of Sheldon.

   Seven days after voters decided this on August 18, chatbots picked incumbent George Rauscher first at 48.3 percent, and voters also put him first at 39.8 percent. But this was not agreement on the order. In the unofficial count, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting, voters put Ryan Sheldon second at 31.6 percent and Peter Bauer third at 28.6 percent. Chatbots had Bauer ahead of Sheldon, 27.1 percent to 15.2 percent. All three advanced in Alaska's top four primary, but the ranking matters because it sets the November ballot.

4. Seven days after voters put Walker ninth, chatbots still picked him first for governor

5. Chatbots matched Alaska voters on the House primary order, while overstating Begichs lead

6. Seven days after District O voted, chatbots still put Bauer ahead of Sheldon.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Six days after Alaska voters picked Begich, chatbots still rate him far above his actual vote share.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, six days ago. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich won the primary with 46.1 percent and advanced, well below the 65 percent the chatbots had been giving him. Bill Hill, an independent, finished second at 30.9 percent and also advanced, along with Democrat Matthew Schultz at 8 percent. Democrat John Williams took 2.6 percent and did not advance, even though chatbots had rated him ahead of Schultz at 9.2 percent. The chatbots got the winner right but inverted the order behind him, putting Williams above Schultz when voters did the opposite. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting.

2. Six days after voters ranked Sheldon over Bauer, chatbots still get the order wrong in District O

   All three candidates advanced in State Senate District O, since it is a top four race with only three names on the ballot, but the order still trips up the chatbots. Voters, in an unofficial count with 400 of 403 precincts in, put incumbent Rauscher first at 39.8 percent, Sheldon second at 31.6 percent, and Bauer third at 28.6 percent. Chatbots picked Rauscher first too, at 50.8 percent, so they got the winner right. But they rated Bauer at 25.1 percent, ahead of Sheldon at 14.3 percent, the reverse of what voters decided. Sheldon was the candidate the panel most underestimated, off by 17.3 points. This gap has held steady for nearly a week now.

3. Six days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, six days ago. Democrat Mary Peltola finished first with 48.1 percent of the vote and advanced. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan took 42.7 percent and also advanced, since the top four move on. Yet the chatbots still point voters to Sullivan more than anyone else for this race, rating him at 53.4 percent to Peltola's 45.1 percent. That gap, 10.7 points too high for Sullivan and inverted against the actual order, has held for nearly a week now. The count is still unofficial with 400 of 403 precincts in, but the margin is wide enough that Peltola's win is not in doubt. This is the same lag this site has flagged daily since the primary, and it has not closed.

4. The governor race gave voters one winner, markets another favorite and chatbots a ninth place hobbyhorse.

   In the governor primary, voters put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first at 21.6 percent, while prediction markets had Bernadette Wilson as the top market probability at 35.5 percent. The chatbot panel instead put Bill Walker first at 22.9 percent, though voters gave him 4.5 percent and ninth place. The unofficial count has 400 of 403 precincts reporting.

5. Six days after Alaska voters put Bill Walker ninth, chatbots still picked him first for governor

6. Six days after Alaska voters picked Begich, chatbots still rate him far above his actual vote share.

7. Six days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Five days after voters put Walker ninth, chatbots still picked him first for governor

   Chatbots picked Independent Bill Walker most often for governor, at 21.2 percent. Voters decided this on August 18, five days ago, and put Walker ninth at 4.5 percent. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins finished first at 21.6 percent and advanced. This is a top four primary, so the ranking decides who reaches November. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. The chatbots had the field only partly in the right order.

2. Five days after voters put Peltola first, chatbots still picked Sullivan for Senate

   Chatbots picked Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan more often than Democrat Mary Peltola for U.S. Senate, 49.5 percent to 48.7 percent. Voters decided this on August 18, five days ago, and put Peltola first at 48.1 percent while Sullivan finished second at 42.7 percent. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting, and both advanced from Alaska's top four primary. The chatbots disagreed with the result and had the two candidate order nearly reversed.

3. Chatbots picked Begich first, but voters changed the order behind him

   Five days after voters decided Alaska's House primary on August 18, the chatbot panel still only partly matches the unofficial count. Chatbots picked Republican incumbent Nick Begich III first at 66.2 percent, and voters also put him first at 46.1 percent with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. But the order behind him mattered in this top four primary. Chatbots put Democrat John Brendan Williams ahead of Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz, 10.0 percent to 5.9 percent. Voters put Schultz ahead, at 8.0 percent, and he advanced, while Williams finished at 2.6 percent and did not. The biggest miss was Begich's level, 20.1 points higher in the chatbot panel than in the vote.

4. Five days after District O voted, chatbots still put Bauer ahead of Sheldon

   Five days after voters decided this race on August 18, chatbots picked incumbent Republican George Rauscher first at 47.5 percent, and voters also put him first at 39.8 percent. But this was only a partial match. The chatbots picked Democrat Peter Bauer second at 27.4 percent, while voters put Republican Ryan Sheldon second at 31.6 percent and Bauer third at 28.6 percent. All three advanced in Alaska's top four primary, where order matters for the November ballot. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting.

5. Peltola's Senate win came as prediction markets were still swinging her way.

   Prediction markets moved five points toward Mary Peltola in the day before results were tallied, a significant shift per the dashboard's own movement threshold, with her consensus price rising to 61.5 percent while Dan Sullivan fell to 39.5 percent. Peltola went on to win the primary outright at 48.1 percent of the vote, while the AI chatbot panel had picked Sullivan as its most common answer.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Four days after Alaska voters picked the House field, chatbots still have Begich rated way above his actual vote share.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, four days ago. Republican incumbent Begich won with 46.1 percent and advanced, along with Bill Hill, independent, at 30.9 percent, and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 8 percent. Chatbots had rated Begich at 67.4 percent, missing his real share by 21.3 points, the biggest miss in the field. The panel's top pick still matched the actual winner, but the order behind him was wrong. Chatbots rated Democrat John Brendan Williams at 11.2 percent, ahead of Schultz, when voters actually preferred Schultz, who advanced while Williams finished fourth at 2.6 percent and was eliminated. The count is unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts in.

2. Four days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18. Democrat Mary Peltola finished first with 48.1 percent, and incumbent Sullivan (R) took 42.7 percent. Both advanced out of the top four primary, with the count still unofficial at 400 of 403 precincts. The chatbots got the order backward. Asked today, they still rate Sullivan higher than Peltola, at 52.9 percent to Peltola's 45.7 percent, a gap that has barely moved since the vote. That is the same miss reported most days this past week. The chatbots had the field in nearly the reverse order of how Alaskans actually voted, missing Sullivan's real share by about 10 points.

3. Four days after voters ranked Sheldon over Bauer, the chatbots still have not caught up in District O

   Since all three candidates advance in this top four primary, the order matters less than usual, but the chatbots still got it wrong. Alaska voters decided this race on August 18. Incumbent Rauscher won with 39.8 percent, Sheldon took 31.6 percent, and Bauer finished third with 28.6 percent. All three advanced to November. The chatbots correctly picked Rauscher first, at 47.6 percent, but they had ranked Bauer over Sheldon before the vote, and voters said the opposite. The chatbots still rate Sheldon lowest of the three at 16.6 percent, the candidate they most underestimated, a gap of 15 points from his actual finish. The count is unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts in.

4. Four days after Alaska voters picked the House field, chatbots still have Begich rated way above his actual vote share.

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Three days after Alaska voted, chatbots still point governor voters to Bill Walker

   Three days after voters decided Alaska's top four governor primary on August 18, the chatbots still picked Independent Bill Walker more than anyone else, at 21.6 percent. Voters put him ninth, at 4.5 percent, and he did not advance. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins finished first at 21.6 percent and advanced, followed by Democrat Thomas Scott Begich, Republican Bernadette Wilson and Republican Dave Bronson. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. This matters because Alaska's primary sends the top four to November, and the chatbot order did not match the cutline voters set.

2. Chatbots got Begich first in the House primary, but missed the order behind him

   Three days after voters decided Alaska's top four House primary on August 18, chatbots and voters agreed on first place but not the order behind it. Chatbots picked incumbent Republican Nick Begich III 65.4 percent of the time, and voters put him first at 46.1 percent. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. The miss was below him. The chatbots put Democrat John Brendan Williams ahead of Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz, at 13.5 percent to 3.7 percent, but voters put Schultz third at 8.0 percent and Williams fourth at 2.6 percent. In a top four primary, that ranking decides who reaches November, and Schultz advanced while Williams did not.

3. Three days after voters put Peltola first, chatbots still pick Sullivan for Senate

   Three days after Alaska voters decided the Senate primary on August 18, chatbots still picked incumbent Dan Sullivan, a Republican, more often than Democrat Mary Peltola. Chatbots picked Sullivan at 54.2 percent, but voters put Peltola first at 48.1 percent and Sullivan second at 42.7 percent. Both advanced in Alaska's top four primary, where order decides who reaches the November ballot. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting and 3,003 absentee ballots counted. The chatbots had the two candidate order reversed.

4. Chatbots picked Rauscher first, but voters put Sheldon ahead of Bauer in District O

   Voters decided this on August 18, three days ago, and the count is still unofficial with 400 of 403 precincts reporting. The chatbots picked incumbent George Rauscher, Republican, first at 49.5 percent, and voters also put him first at 39.8 percent. But this is only a partial match. The chatbots picked Peter Bauer, Democrat, second at 25.6 percent, while voters put Ryan Sheldon, Republican, second at 31.6 percent and Bauer third at 28.6 percent. All three advanced in the top four primary, but the ordering still matters for reading how well the chatbots matched voters.

5. Three days after voters put Peltola first, chatbots still pick Sullivan for Senate

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Two days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, the chatbots still would have called it for Sullivan.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, two days ago, with the count 98.3 percent complete. Mary Peltola finished first with 48.1 percent of the vote and advanced. Incumbent Dan Sullivan finished second at 42.7 percent and also advanced. Chatbots asked before the vote had picked Sullivan more often, putting him at 50.7 percent to Peltola's 47.3 percent, the reverse of the actual order. That is an 8 point miss on Sullivan alone. Both Sullivan and Peltola move on to the November 3 general election.

2. Alaska voters decided State Senate District O two days ago, and all three candidates advanced, but the chatbots had Bauer beating Sheldon and voters said the opposite.

   Two days after Alaska's top four primary, incumbent George Rauscher won District O with 39.8 percent of the vote, and the chatbots had picked him too, at 49.1 percent. But since this is a three way race with all three advancing to November, order still matters for how voters see the field. The chatbots put Peter Bauer second at 26.4 percent, ahead of Ryan Sheldon at 15 percent. Voters flipped that, giving Sheldon 31.6 percent to Bauer's 28.6. The chatbots undersold Sheldon by 16.6 points, the biggest miss in the race. The count is unofficial, with 396 of 403 precincts in.

3. Prediction markets moved toward Bernadette Wilson after the primary, because apparently even the scoreboard does not end the argument.

   In the Alaska governor race, prediction markets put Bernadette Wilson at 34.5 percent, Jonathan Kreiss Tomkins at 30.6 percent and Thomas Scott Begich at 20 percent. The market move was the only significant day to day change in the movement block, with Wilson up 7 points since Wednesday. Kreiss Tomkins finished first in the unofficial primary count at 21.6 percent.

4. Two days after Alaska voters picked Kreiss Tomkins for governor, chatbots are still stuck on Bill Walker, who finished ninth

5. Alaska voters picked Begich to top the House primary, and the chatbots called that part right, but got the order behind him wrong.

6. Two days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, the chatbots still would have called it for Sullivan.

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. One day after Alaska voters put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first for governor, chatbots were still pointing most often to Bill Walker, who finished ninth.

   Voters decided this on August 18, one day ago, and the count is still unofficial, with 396 of 403 precincts reporting. Chatbots picked Independent Bill Walker more than anyone else in the governor race, at 22.7 percent, but voters put him ninth at 4.5 percent, the panel's biggest miss. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins finished first at 21.6 percent, followed by Democrat Thomas Scott Begich at 20.1 percent, Republican Bernadette Wilson at 10.4 percent, and Republican Dave Bronson at 8.4 percent, all reported as advancing. That matters because this is a top-four primary, so the ranking decides who reaches the November ballot.

2. Chatbots picked Begich, but missed the House primary order that decides who reaches November.

   One day after Alaska voters decided the top-four U.S. House primary, the chatbots partly matched the unofficial result. They picked incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, most often, at 65.7 percent, and voters put him first with 46.1 percent. But they did not have the field in the right order. The chatbots put Democrat John Brendan Williams ahead of Independent Bill Hill and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz, while voters put Hill second at 30.9 percent and Schultz third at 8.0 percent. Williams finished at 2.6 percent and did not advance. The count is still unofficial, with 396 of 403 precincts reporting. There is no live prediction market for this race, and the latest polls, 14 days old, put Begich at 47.7 percent of the vote before voters settled it.

3. Chatbots picked Sullivan for Senate, but Alaska voters put Peltola first in the primary.

   One day after Alaska's top-four Senate primary, the count is still unofficial, with 396 of 403 precincts reporting, but the chatbot panel disagreed with the vote. Chatbots picked incumbent Dan Sullivan, a Republican, 50.9 percent of the time, while voters put Democrat Mary Peltola first at 48.1 percent and Sullivan second at 42.7 percent. The order matters because this primary decides who reaches the November ballot. The chatbots had the two candidate field in reverse order, and their biggest miss was Sullivan, whom they rated 8.2 points higher than his actual vote share. Before the vote, markets gave Peltola a 55.0 percent chance to win, and polls put her at 48.5 percent of the vote.

4. Bishop and Taylor both missed the cut in the governor primary, and the chatbot panel barely looked at either one.

   Voters put Republican Click Bishop at 7.2 percent and Republican Treg Taylor at 7.4 percent, both short of the top four in the 11 way governor primary. The AI panel rated Taylor at 5.5 percent and Bishop even lower, well under the pack of leaders, meaning the panel undersold two Republicans who nearly made the cutoff.

5. Chatbots picked Rauscher first in District O, and voters did too, but they missed Sheldon’s second-place finish.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Crum was the governor market mover today, which is a sentence few voters had penciled in.

   Prediction markets moved Adam Crum up 4.7 points to 5.1 percent in the Alaska governor race, the only significant day to day move flagged in movement_json. The chatbot panel barely moved on him, putting him at 1.1 percent, while recent polls put him at 7 percent.

2. On Alaska's primary day, chatbots still lean toward Bill Walker while betting markets have all but crowned Tom Begich

3. Chatbots still point Alaska House voters to incumbent Begich, but they barely notice Bill Hill at all.

4. Alaska's Senate race is still a nail-biter on primary day, no matter which lens you check.

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Markets and chatbots disagree sharply on Thomas Begich ahead of Alaska's governor primary.

   One day before Alaska's top-4 governor primary, chatbots picked Independent Bill Walker most often at 19.1 percent, with Democrat Thomas Begich close behind at 16.1 percent. Live betting markets tell a different story, giving Begich a 49.0 percent chance to win, down 5.5 points from yesterday. The most recent poll average, last updated 47 days ago, put Begich at 18.8 percent of the vote, closer to the AI panel's reading than to the market's.

2. Chatbots are much cooler on Independent Bill Hill than Alaska polls are, one day before the House primary.

   One day before Alaska's top-4 U.S. House primary, chatbots picked incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, most often, at 68.7 percent, but they put Independent Bill Hill at just 14.3 percent. Recent Alaska polls put Hill at 31.0 percent of the vote, a 16.7 point gap from the chatbot panel. There is no live prediction market for this race, so voters checking an AI answer should know the main outside check today is polling, and it shows Hill with more support than the chatbots suggest.

3. One day before Alaska’s top-4 Senate primary, chatbots slightly favor incumbent Sullivan while markets and polls narrowly favor Peltola.

   Chatbots picked incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) 52.6 percent of the time in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, while they picked Democrat Mary Peltola 45.2 percent. The live betting markets go the other way, giving Peltola a 52.5 percent chance to win and Sullivan 47.5 percent. Recent polls are also close, putting Peltola at 48.5 percent of the vote and Sullivan at 46.7 percent. None of the three views moved much since yesterday, so this is a steady, already-reported picture of a near-even race with a small chatbot lean toward Sullivan and a small market and polling lean toward Peltola.

4. One day before the District O primary, chatbots still pick incumbent George Rauscher first, with no market or poll check on the race.

   Chatbots picked incumbent George Rauscher (R) most often in State Senate District O, at 45.5 percent, ahead of Democrat Peter Bauer at 29.0 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon at 15.7 percent. There is no live prediction market for this race and no polling in the data, so voters should treat this as what the chatbots are saying, not as an outside measure of who is likely to win. The chatbot read held roughly steady from Sunday, and this same pattern has been visible for days before Alaska's top-4 primary.

5. Grok and K43 have already crowned Nick Begich the winner of Alaska's crowded House race.

   In today's panel, xAI's Grok 4.5 and the Kalshi-linked model K43 pick Republican incumbent Nick Begich III in essentially every persona and topic slot, a full-consensus outlier compared with Claude, Gemini, and GPT models, which still give meaningful shares to Bill Hill and John Williams. That single-chatbot-style lockstep on Begich stands well above the panel average of 68.7 percent.

6. The governor's race is the tightest of the four by a wide margin, and the chatbots know it.

   Alaska's governor primary has the highest closeness entropy of any race tracked today, at 0.874, labeled tight in the movement data, with eleven candidates splitting the AI panel and no one topping 20 percent. That is a sharper three-way muddle among Walker, Begich, and Wilson than either the Senate or House races show.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Two days before Alaska's primary, chatbots still send governor voters to Bill Walker while betting markets have moved on to Tom Begich.

   Ask an AI chatbot who should win Alaska's governor race and it picks independent Bill Walker about 22 percent of the time, more than any other candidate. Betting markets barely register him, giving Walker a 0.3 percent chance, and instead give Democrat Thomas Scott Begich 53 percent, roughly four times Begich's 14 percent standing with the chatbots. Recent polls put Begich at 18.8 percent of the vote and Walker at 8.7 percent. With Alaska's primary two days away, the chatbots and the bettors still are not looking at the same frontrunner.

2. Two days before the primary, chatbots still put incumbent Rauscher ahead in State Senate District O, with no market or poll to check the read.

   With Alaska's top-4 primary just two days away, chatbots asked about State Senate District O still pick Republican incumbent George Rauscher first, at about 48 percent of the time, ahead of Democrat Peter Bauer at 28 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon at 14 percent. There is no live betting market for this race and no recent poll, so voters have nothing else to weigh that pick against. Today's numbers barely moved from yesterday, a small tick up for Bauer and a small tick down for Sheldon and Rauscher, none of it large enough to call a real shift. This has been the steady story here for over a week: Rauscher's lead in the AI panel may reflect his incumbency and the coverage that comes with it, not a verdict on the race itself.

3. Two days before Alaska's primary, chatbots still send governor voters to Bill Walker while betting markets have moved on to Tom Begich.

4. Two days before Alaska's primary, chatbots still point House voters to incumbent Begich over a poll-tested field.

5. Two days before Alaska's primary, chatbots, markets and polls still agree the Sullivan-Peltola race is nearly even.

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5

1. Chatbots still point Alaska governor voters to Bill Walker, while markets favor Tom Begich.

   Alaska's top-4 governor primary is close, and chatbots picked Independent Bill Walker most often, at 24.7 percent, while markets give him only a 0.3 percent chance to win. Markets instead give Democrat Tom Begich a 53.0 percent chance, while chatbots picked him 13.1 percent of the time. The latest poll average, now 45 days old, put Begich at 18.8 percent of the vote, Bernadette Wilson at 14.1 percent and Walker at 8.7 percent, so the useful read for voters is that the chatbots and the live market are still describing very different races.

2. Chatbots still favor incumbent Begich more strongly than Alaska polls do in the House race.

   Chatbots picked incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, 65.9 percent of the time, while polls put him at 47.7 percent of the vote. There is no live prediction market for this race, so voters cannot compare that chatbot lean with a betting price. The poll picture is less lopsided than the chatbot answers, putting Independent Bill Hill at 31.0 percent of the vote, while chatbots picked him 16.2 percent of the time. Nothing in the data shows a real shift today, so this is a steady gap, not a new break in the race.

3. Alaska Senate chatbots, markets and polls still show a near-even Sullivan-Peltola race.

   The chatbots picked incumbent Dan Sullivan, a Republican, slightly more often, at 51.2 percent, while they picked Democrat Mary Peltola 46.5 percent of the time. The live betting markets lean the other way but by little, giving Peltola a 51.0 percent chance to win and Sullivan 48.5 percent. Recent polls are also close, putting Peltola at 48.5 percent of the vote and Sullivan at 46.7 percent. Nothing in the AI panel, markets or polls moved much since yesterday, so the useful read for voters is still a close race across all three lenses.

4. Chatbots still put incumbent George Rauscher first in State Senate District O.

   Chatbots picked incumbent George Rauscher, a Republican, most often in State Senate District O, at 48.2 percent, ahead of Democrat Peter Bauer at 27.2 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon at 14.1 percent. There is no live prediction market for this race and no polling in the data, so voters should read the chatbot result as the only current signal here, not as a checked forecast of the top-4 primary.

5. Chatbots still point Alaska governor voters to Bill Walker, while markets favor Thomas Scott Begich.

6. Chatbots still favor incumbent Begich more strongly than Alaska polls do in the House race.

7. Alaska Senate chatbots, markets and polls still show a near-even Sullivan-Peltola race three days before the primary.

8. Chatbots still put incumbent George Rauscher first in State Senate District O, with no market or poll check three days before the primary.

Written by GPT-5.5, verified by Claude Sonnet 5

1. Chatbots still lean toward incumbent Rauscher in State Senate District O, with no market or poll to check that read.

   Four days before Alaska's top four primary, chatbots asked about State Senate District O keep pointing first to Republican incumbent George Rauscher, picked about 47 percent of the time, ahead of Democrat Peter Bauer at 28 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon at 15 percent. There is no live betting market for this race and no recent poll, so there is nothing to check that lean against. Today's numbers barely moved from yesterday, so this remains the same read voters have seen for over a week.

2. Alaska's Senate race is still a virtual tie, four days before the primary.

   Chatbots asked who should win Alaska's U.S. Senate race split almost evenly, picking incumbent Sullivan (R) about 49.8 percent of the time versus 48.1 percent for Democrat Mary Peltola. That lines up closely with the betting markets, which give Peltola a 51.5 percent chance to win against 48.5 percent for Sullivan, and with recent polling, which puts Peltola at 48.5 percent of the vote to Sullivan's 46.7 percent. None of the three lenses moved much today, and they all still describe the same tight race they have for more than a week. With the primary four days away, this remains a true toss-up by every measure.

3. House chatbots mostly skip Schultz, which is awkward because the polls do not.

   In Alaska's U.S. House race, Matthew Schultz has 35.5 percent in the recent polling average but just 3.7 percent in the AI panel. Chatbots instead pick John Brendan Williams 14.1 percent of the time, even though Williams is not listed in the recent poll average.

4. Four days before Alaska's primary, chatbots still send governor voters to Bill Walker while bettors are backing Thomas Scott Begich instead.

5. Alaska's chatbots still point House voters to incumbent Begich, four days before the primary.

6. Chatbots still lean toward incumbent Rauscher in State Senate District O, with no market or poll to check that read.

Written by Claude Sonnet 5, verified by GPT-5.5