About this snapshot

Written by anthropic:claude-sonnet-5, checked by openai:gpt-5.5.

Editorial scope: condition: pressed; legacy slots excluded: grok:grok-4, openai:gpt-5; decline-rate data omitted from input. Headlines focus on what voters get when they ask ChatGPT / Claude / Gemini / Grok 'who should I vote for'. Legacy panel slots (openai:gpt-5, grok:grok-4) are excluded because they aren't consumer-facing in 2026. Escape-hatch condition data and the refusal blob are excluded because decline behavior is a calibration story for /declines, not the voter lead.

View underlying numbers → · How the pipeline works →

1. Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026

   Sixteen days after Alaska voters picked Begich, chatbots still rate him far above his real vote share.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18. Incumbent Nick Begich III, Republican, won with 44.6 percent and advanced, along with Bill Hill, independent, at 32.5 percent, and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 8.1 percent. Democrat John Brendan Williams finished fourth at 2.7 percent and did not advance. Chatbots picked Begich first too, matching the order voters chose, but they had rated him at 62.6 percent, 18 points above his actual finish. The count is unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting. This gap between the chatbots' confidence in Begich and his real, more modest win has held steady for over two weeks now, making it the persistent story of this race rather than new news today.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked by GPT-5.5

2. Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026

   Sixteen days after District O voted, chatbots still rank Bauer over Sheldon, though all three move on anyway

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, sixteen days ago. All three candidates advance to November since this is a top four primary, so the ranking miss does not change who moves on. Republican incumbent Rauscher won with 38.8 percent of the vote, and chatbots had picked him too, at 65 percent of the time, a big overstatement of his margin. Republican Sheldon took 30.6 percent and Bauer, the Democrat, also took 30.6 percent. Chatbots still rate Bauer higher than Sheldon, 20.3 percent to 7.6 percent, an inversion that has held for over a week now. The count is unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts in.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked and corrected by GPT-5.5

3. Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Sixteen days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

   Both advanced to November, but the order is still flipped. Alaska's chatbots pick Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan about 52.5 percent of the time for this race, while voters, with 401 of 403 precincts counted, put Democrat Mary Peltola first at 49.5 percent and Sullivan second at 41.4 percent. That is an 11.1 point gap between what the panel says and what the count shows for Sullivan. This has been true since the primary, and this update mainly confirms the panel has not caught up to the result yet. The count is still listed as unofficial, though nearly complete, so the exact final margin could shift slightly.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked by GPT-5.5

4. Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Markets sided with Peltola while chatbots still picked Sullivan.

   Prediction markets gave Mary Peltola a 63.5 percent chance in the Senate race, while the chatbot panel picked Dan Sullivan 52.5 percent of the time. Voters put Peltola first with 49.5 percent and Sullivan second with 41.4 percent, with the count still unofficial.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, not checked by GPT-5.5