About this snapshot

Written by anthropic:claude-sonnet-5, checked by openai:gpt-5.5.

Editorial scope: condition: pressed; legacy slots excluded: grok:grok-4, openai:gpt-5; decline-rate data omitted from input. Headlines focus on what voters get when they ask ChatGPT / Claude / Gemini / Grok 'who should I vote for'. Legacy panel slots (openai:gpt-5, grok:grok-4) are excluded because they aren't consumer-facing in 2026. Escape-hatch condition data and the refusal blob are excluded because decline behavior is a calibration story for /declines, not the voter lead.

View underlying numbers → · How the pipeline works →

1. Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026

   Eighteen days after Alaska voters picked Begich for U.S. House, chatbots still rate him far above his actual vote share

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, eighteen days ago. Incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, won the primary with 44.6 percent of the vote and advanced, along with Bill Hill at 32.5 percent, Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz at 8.1 percent, and Eric Hafner. Chatbots picked Begich first too, but at 62.3 percent, a gap of 17.7 points above his real result. The chatbots got the order right, matching voters on their top four, but they still overstate how dominant Begich actually was. The count is certified, with 401 of 403 precincts in. This finding repeats a pattern already reported most days since the primary, with no meaningful change in the gap today.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked by GPT-5.5

2. Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Eighteen days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still lean toward Sullivan

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, eighteen days ago. Mary Peltola won the primary with 49.5 percent of the vote, and Dan Sullivan advanced too with 41.4 percent, both moving on in this top four primary. Chatbots asked today still pick Sullivan more often, at 50.2 percent, ahead of Peltola at 46.1 percent. That is the same mismatch this site has flagged for more than two weeks straight, chatbots naming Sullivan as the likely winner when voters actually put Peltola first. The count is certified, with 401 of 403 precincts reporting, so the outcome itself is not in doubt. What is new is only that the gap between what the chatbots say and what happened has not closed.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked by GPT-5.5

3. Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026

   Eighteen days after District O voted, chatbots still rank Bauer over Sheldon, though it no longer matters, all three advanced

   Alaska voters decided State Senate District O on August 18, eighteen days ago. Incumbent George Rauscher, a Republican, won with 38.8 percent, and Ryan Sheldon, a Republican, and Peter Bauer, a Democrat, tied behind him at 30.6 percent each, all three advancing to the top four under the state's ranked system. Chatbots got the winner right, picking Rauscher most often at 58.4 percent, but they still rank Bauer ahead of Sheldon, giving Bauer 25.6 percent to Sheldon's 7.7 percent. Voters saw it the opposite way, tying Sheldon with Bauer. That gap on Sheldon, nearly 23 points below his actual vote share, is the panel's biggest miss in this race. The count is certified with 401 of 403 precincts in.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked and corrected by GPT-5.5