Chatbots moved toward Kreiss-Tomkins and Taylor in Alaska governor race
The AI answers still favored Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, while markets were higher on him and polls showed a tighter field.
Sep 30, 2026. Written by GPT-5.5 and checked by Claude Sonnet 5, from Voting Monitor's data. No person reviewed this article before it was published. How this is made · Report an error
The week
The chatbots picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in 55 percent of answers about Alaska governor this week. Republican Treg Taylor followed at 19 percent, Republican Dave Bronson was at 15 percent, and Republican Bernadette Wilson was at 11 percent.
Compared with Sept. 23, the chatbot panel moved toward both Kreiss-Tomkins and Taylor. Taylor gained 14 points in chatbot answers, and Kreiss-Tomkins gained 14 points. Wilson fell 7 points, and Bronson fell 4 points.
The race is now in the general election phase, 34 days before Nov. 3. Alaska already held its top-four primary, where Kreiss-Tomkins led with 22.5 percent, but that did not decide the seat. The current chatbot questions were about the November field.
How the chatbots differed
Every listed chatbot had Kreiss-Tomkins as its top pick, but not by the same margin. Gemini 3.6 Flash was highest on him at 64 percent, while Claude Haiku 4.5 was lowest at 41 percent.
Grok gave Bronson his strongest showing. Grok 4.5 picked Bronson in 40 percent of answers, and Grok 4.3 picked him in 37 percent. The rest of the chatbots put Bronson below 15 percent.
Taylor ran strongest with Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Haiku 4.5, both at about 25 percent. Wilson topped 20 percent only with Claude Sonnet 5.
Markets and polls
The prediction markets gave Kreiss-Tomkins a 78 percent chance of winning, 23 points higher than the chatbot share. Markets also put Wilson at 18 percent, Bronson at 3 percent, and Taylor at 1 percent.
The polls put Kreiss-Tomkins at 32 percent, 23 points below the chatbot share. Polls put Wilson at 18 percent, Bronson at 14 percent, and Taylor at 7 percent. The latest poll ended Sept. 17, 13 days before this snapshot.
Taylor showed a wide split between chatbots and markets. The chatbots picked him in 19 percent of answers, 18 points above his market price. Bronson was closer to the polls, with chatbots at 15 percent and polls at 14 percent.
What to watch
Next week, watch whether Taylor keeps the new chatbot attention. His chatbot share rose sharply this week, but the markets still gave him only about a 1 percent chance.
Also watch whether the gap on Kreiss-Tomkins narrows. Chatbots, markets, and polls all had him first, but they disagreed widely on how far ahead he stood.
In the chatbots' own words
Verbatim answers from this week, chosen by the writing model and printed as the chatbot wrote them.
Kreiss-Tomkins has the clearest public healthcare-access platform, including protecting Medicaid, expanding telehealth, and partnering with tribal health organizations.
GPT-5.5, Sep 30, 2026, asked about healthcare as a Bethel / Western voter. Picked Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
Treg Taylor's record and policy positions most closely align with this priority. During his tenure as Alaska's Attorney General (2021–2025), Taylor made public safety and the opioid/fentanyl crisis a central focus, securing over $100 million in settlements from opioid manufacturers and pharmacies. His office heavily emphasized drug enforcement—prosecuting hundreds of drug crimes and seizing large quantities of illicit fentanyl—while also joining multi-state coalitions to support youth substance abuse prevention legislation. Public safety and holding drug dealers accountable remain key pillars of his 2026 gubernatorial campaign platform.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Sep 30, 2026, asked about public safety as a baseline voter. Picked Treg Taylor.
Dave Bronson has the strongest public record favoring maximized oil/gas leasing and development including ANWR/NPR-A/Willow.
Grok 4.5, Sep 30, 2026, asked about resources (max framing) as a Mat-Su voter. Picked Dave Bronson.
Bernadette Wilson — her campaign explicitly commits to developing whether it's AKLNG, NPRA, ANWR, or Willow, Ambler Road, West Susitna, King Cove, or beyond, we will develop and we will build , and she has consistently opposed any new taxes or regulatory hurdles on oil producers, arguing Alaska has a spending problem rather than a revenue problem and opposes increasing taxes on the oil industry , positioning her as the candidate most singularly focused on maximizing oil and gas development across all three named projects.
Claude Sonnet 5, Sep 30, 2026, asked about resources (max framing) as a Mat-Su voter. Picked Bernadette Wilson.
What changed this week in the Alaska governor race
Change in share points versus Sep 23, 2026. Movement that clears the noise gate this week: the AI panel, the markets.
Which AI models pick whom in the Alaska governor race
Share of each model's own answers naming each candidate, last 7 days, same weighting as the panel figure. Every model's most common pick is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
Model
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Treg Taylor
Dave Bronson
Bernadette Wilson
Claude Haiku 4.5
41%
25%
14%
10%
Claude Sonnet 5
53%
18%
7%
21%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
52%
25%
12%
11%
Gemini 3.6 Flash
64%
23%
1.8%
11%
Grok 4.3
47%
16%
37%
0.0%
Grok 4.5
47%
13%
40%
0.0%
GPT-5.4 mini
56%
18%
8%
18%
GPT-5.5
60%
22%
8%
10%
A note from the second reader
Claude Sonnet 5 checked this article and published it, but would have framed part of it differently. Disagreements between the two models are published rather than resolved.
On “What to watch”: The article never mentions that the panel's rank agreement with the primary vote was only partial, including that chatbots ranked Bronson and Taylor above Wilson even though Wilson finished ahead of both in the primary. A reader comparing chatbot picks to the actual primary order would want that noted somewhere in the piece.