About this snapshot

Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5.

The findings use the answers to questions where the chatbot had to choose a candidate; models the chatbots no longer offer voters (Grok 4, GPT-5) are left out.

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1. Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Markets are more confident in James Talarico than Texas chatbots are

   Texas chatbots picked Democrat James Talarico 44.4 percent of the time for U.S. Senate, but the betting markets give him a 60.5 percent chance to win. Recent polls are closer to the chatbot read, putting Talarico at 46.7 percent of the vote and Republican Ken Paxton at 45.7 percent. The race still points the same way across all three lenses, but the markets see a clearer Talarico edge than voters would hear from the chatbots.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5

2. Alaska Governor Race 2026

   Alaska chatbots still run cooler than markets on Kreiss-Tomkins for governor

   Alaska chatbots picked Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor 49.0 percent of the time, well below the 76.0 percent chance to win that betting markets give him. Polls put him at 31.7 percent of the vote. That leaves the chatbots in the middle, more favorable than recent voter surveys but far cooler than the markets, 38 days before the general election.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5

3. Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026

   Alaska chatbots still pick Begich for House, but markets are even more confident

   Chatbots picked incumbent Nick Begich III (R) 61.6 percent of the time in Alaska voters questions about U.S. House At-Large. Markets give Begich an 84.5 percent chance to win, a 22.9 point gap that keeps the betting side more bullish than the AI panel. Polls put Begich at 45.7 percent of the vote, with Bill Hill at 31.0 percent. Nothing moved much since Friday, so this is a steady race reading 38 days before the general election.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked and corrected by Claude Sonnet 5

4. Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026

   Ohio chatbots, markets and polls still point to Sherrod Brown for the special Senate race

   Chatbots picked Democrat Sherrod Brown most often when Ohio voters asked about the special Senate race, at 45.7 percent. Markets give Brown a 58.5 percent chance to win, and polls put him at 46.7 percent of the vote. Incumbent Jon Husted (R) is second across the three views, with chatbots at 34.8 percent, markets at 41.5 percent and polls at 43.0 percent. Nothing moved much today, 38 days before the general election.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5

5. Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Alaska chatbots still pick Sullivan while markets favor Peltola for Senate

   Alaska voters asking chatbots about the U.S. Senate race still get Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan first. Chatbots picked Sullivan 52.9 percent of the time and Democrat Mary Peltola 41.1 percent. The live betting markets read the race the other way, giving Peltola a 73.5 percent chance to win and Sullivan 27.5 percent. Polls are much closer, putting Peltola at 43.7 percent of the vote and Sullivan at 42.7 percent. That split has held for days, so this is a steady state of the race, not a new break.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5

6. Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Michigan chatbots still split the Senate race while markets favor Abdul El-Sayed

   Michigan chatbots picked Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 49.6 percent of the time and Republican Mike Rogers 46.9 percent, essentially a split 38 days before the general election. Betting markets give El-Sayed a 72.5 percent chance to win and Rogers 28.5 percent, while recent polls put El-Sayed at 47.3 percent of the vote and Rogers at 43.7 percent. That means the chatbots still show a much tighter Senate race than bettors do, though voters surveyed by pollsters also describe a close race.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5

7. Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Iowa chatbots still see a nearly tied Senate race while markets lean to Ashley Hinson

   Chatbots picked Democrat Josh Turek 46.9 percent of the time and Republican Ashley Hinson 43.0 percent when Iowa voters asked about the U.S. Senate race. Betting markets give Hinson a 56.5 percent chance to win and Turek 43.5 percent. Recent polls are closer to the chatbot read, putting Turek at 44.7 percent of the vote and Hinson at 44.0 percent. That leaves the race steady, with chatbots and polls calling it close and markets still favoring Hinson 38 days before the general election.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5

8. Maine U.S. Senate Race 2026

   Maine chatbots still pick Susan Collins while markets favor Troy Jackson

   Maine voters asking chatbots about the U.S. Senate race are still more likely to get incumbent Susan Collins than Democrat Troy Jackson. Chatbots picked Collins 53.1 percent of the time and Jackson 45.8 percent. Markets give Jackson a 62.5 percent chance to win and Collins 36.5 percent. Polls put Jackson at 47.0 percent of the vote and Collins at 45.7 percent. Nothing moved much since Friday, so this is the same split Maine voters have seen all week, chatbots leaning Collins while markets lean Jackson and polls stay close.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked by Claude Sonnet 5

9. Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026

   District O chatbots still pick Rauscher, with no live market or poll to check them

   Thirty eight days before the general election, Alaska chatbots pick incumbent George Rauscher most often in State Senate District O, at 48.8 percent. They put Democrat Peter Bauer at 27.6 percent and Republican Ryan Sheldon at 15.2 percent. There is no live prediction market or poll in the data for this race. As history, the August 18 top four primary was a partial match. Voters put Rauscher first at 38.8 percent, but Sheldon and Bauer tied for second at 30.6 percent each, an order the chatbots did not fully anticipate.

   Written by GPT-5.5, checked and corrected by Claude Sonnet 5