Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026

Six days after Alaska voters picked Begich, chatbots still rate him far above his actual vote share.

Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, six days ago. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich won the primary with 46.1 percent and advanced, well below the 65 percent the chatbots had been giving him. Bill Hill, an independent, finished second at 30.9 percent and also advanced, along with Democrat Matthew Schultz at 8 percent. Democrat John Williams took 2.6 percent and did not advance, even though chatbots had rated him ahead of Schultz at 9.2 percent. The chatbots got the winner right but inverted the order behind him, putting Williams above Schultz when voters did the opposite. The count is still unofficial, with 400 of 403 precincts reporting.

Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026

Six days after voters ranked Sheldon over Bauer, chatbots still get the order wrong in District O

All three candidates advanced in State Senate District O, since it is a top four race with only three names on the ballot, but the order still trips up the chatbots. Voters, in an unofficial count with 400 of 403 precincts in, put incumbent Rauscher first at 39.8 percent, Sheldon second at 31.6 percent, and Bauer third at 28.6 percent. Chatbots picked Rauscher first too, at 50.8 percent, so they got the winner right. But they rated Bauer at 25.1 percent, ahead of Sheldon at 14.3 percent, the reverse of what voters decided. Sheldon was the candidate the panel most underestimated, off by 17.3 points. This gap has held steady for nearly a week now.

Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026

Six days after Alaska voters picked Peltola for Senate, chatbots still favor Sullivan

Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, six days ago. Democrat Mary Peltola finished first with 48.1 percent of the vote and advanced. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan took 42.7 percent and also advanced, since the top four move on. Yet the chatbots still point voters to Sullivan more than anyone else for this race, rating him at 53.4 percent to Peltola's 45.1 percent. That gap, 10.7 points too high for Sullivan and inverted against the actual order, has held for nearly a week now. The count is still unofficial with 400 of 403 precincts in, but the margin is wide enough that Peltola's win is not in doubt. This is the same lag this site has flagged daily since the primary, and it has not closed.

Alaska Governor Race 2026

The governor race gave voters one winner, markets another favorite and chatbots a ninth place hobbyhorse.

In the governor primary, voters put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first at 21.6 percent, while prediction markets had Bernadette Wilson as the top market probability at 35.5 percent. The chatbot panel instead put Bill Walker first at 22.9 percent, though voters gave him 4.5 percent and ninth place. The unofficial count has 400 of 403 precincts reporting.

A finding was written for this race and its wording was disputed

“Six days after Alaska voters put Bill Walker ninth, chatbots still picked him first for governor” (the wording our summarizing model proposed)

Our checking model objected to how our summarizing model worded a finding about this race. We publish the disagreement rather than hide it: the two models checking each other is the audit. The objection: The body claims the chatbots got the field close to right even though the rank comparison verdict is disagree. That is an agreement style framing on a disagree result.