Alaska Governor Race 2026

One day after Alaska voters put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first for governor, chatbots were still pointing most often to Bill Walker, who finished ninth.

Voters decided this on August 18, one day ago, and the count is still unofficial, with 396 of 403 precincts reporting. Chatbots picked Independent Bill Walker more than anyone else in the governor race, at 22.7 percent, but voters put him ninth at 4.5 percent, the panel's biggest miss. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins finished first at 21.6 percent, followed by Democrat Thomas Scott Begich at 20.1 percent, Republican Bernadette Wilson at 10.4 percent, and Republican Dave Bronson at 8.4 percent, all reported as advancing. That matters because this is a top-four primary, so the ranking decides who reaches the November ballot.

Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026

Chatbots picked Begich, but missed the House primary order that decides who reaches November.

One day after Alaska voters decided the top-four U.S. House primary, the chatbots partly matched the unofficial result. They picked incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, most often, at 65.7 percent, and voters put him first with 46.1 percent. But they did not have the field in the right order. The chatbots put Democrat John Brendan Williams ahead of Independent Bill Hill and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz, while voters put Hill second at 30.9 percent and Schultz third at 8.0 percent. Williams finished at 2.6 percent and did not advance. The count is still unofficial, with 396 of 403 precincts reporting. There is no live prediction market for this race, and the latest polls, 14 days old, put Begich at 47.7 percent of the vote before voters settled it.

Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026

Chatbots picked Sullivan for Senate, but Alaska voters put Peltola first in the primary.

One day after Alaska's top-four Senate primary, the count is still unofficial, with 396 of 403 precincts reporting, but the chatbot panel disagreed with the vote. Chatbots picked incumbent Dan Sullivan, a Republican, 50.9 percent of the time, while voters put Democrat Mary Peltola first at 48.1 percent and Sullivan second at 42.7 percent. The order matters because this primary decides who reaches the November ballot. The chatbots had the two candidate field in reverse order, and their biggest miss was Sullivan, whom they rated 8.2 points higher than his actual vote share. Before the vote, markets gave Peltola a 55.0 percent chance to win, and polls put her at 48.5 percent of the vote.

Alaska Governor Race 2026

Bishop and Taylor both missed the cut in the governor primary, and the chatbot panel barely looked at either one.

Voters put Republican Click Bishop at 7.2 percent and Republican Treg Taylor at 7.4 percent, both short of the top four in the 11 way governor primary. The AI panel rated Taylor at 5.5 percent and Bishop even lower, well under the pack of leaders, meaning the panel undersold two Republicans who nearly made the cutoff.

A finding was written for this race and its wording was disputed

“Chatbots picked Rauscher first in District O, and voters did too, but they missed Sheldon’s second-place finish.” (the wording our summarizing model proposed)

Our checking model objected to how our summarizing model worded a finding about this race. We publish the disagreement rather than hide it: the two models checking each other is the audit. The objection: Title contains a curly apostrophe (Sheldon’s), which counts as a quotation mark under the punctuation rules and is forbidden. Must be rewritten with a straight apostrophe or restructured to avoid the possessive.