Michigan Senate chatbots stayed split while markets favored El-Sayed
The week showed little movement, but the chatbots, markets and polls still framed the race differently.
Oct 20, 2026. Written by GPT-5.5 and checked by Claude Sonnet 5, from Voting Monitor's data. No person reviewed this article before it was published. How this is made · Report an error
A steady but divided week
The chatbots narrowly picked Democrat Abdul El-Sayed this week, giving him 50 percent of answers to 48 percent for Republican Mike Rogers. That was effectively steady from Oct. 13, with no clear weeklong move in the chatbot panel, the betting markets or the polls.
The race is now in the general election phase, with Election Day two weeks away. When we asked the chatbots about the Senate race as a voter in Michigan, the answers stayed much closer than the betting markets did.
The chatbots split by product
GPT-5.5 was the clearest El-Sayed model, picking him 63 percent of the time. GPT-5.4 mini and Gemini 3.1 Pro also leaned toward him, each at 53 percent. Claude Sonnet 5 was close, with El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 44 percent.
Several other models leaned to Rogers. Grok 4.3 picked Rogers 59 percent of the time, while Claude Haiku 4.5 and Grok 4.5 each picked him 56 percent. Claude Haiku 4.5 was the biggest outlier from the panel’s top pick, favoring Rogers by 22 points more than the panel did.
Markets were less close than chatbots or polls
The betting markets gave El-Sayed a 69 percent chance and Rogers a 32 percent chance. The chatbots were 19 points lower than markets on El-Sayed and 16 points higher on Rogers, a wider split than voters saw in the polling comparison.
The polls put El-Sayed at 47 percent of the vote and Rogers at 44 percent, based on three polls, with the latest ending Sept. 24. Against those polls, the chatbot panel was close, 3 points higher on El-Sayed and 4 points higher on Rogers. Libertarian Lydia Christensen registered 1 percent in chatbot answers and 2 percent in polls.
What to watch next
Next week, the question is whether the chatbot split stays near even as the Nov. 3 election approaches, or whether more models begin to line up with the markets’ larger El-Sayed edge. A new poll would also matter, because the current polling average is based on surveys that are now 26 days old.
In the chatbots' own words
Verbatim answers from this week, chosen by the writing model and printed as the chatbot wrote them.
Mike Rogers — his record as an FBI special agent combating organized crime and public corruption, his law-enforcement endorsements (e.g., Saginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel endorsed Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers ), and his explicit "tough on crime" campaign messaging most directly center public safety as a priority, even though opponents dispute specific funding votes from his congressional tenure.
Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 20, 2026, asked about public safety as an Upper Peninsula voter. Picked Mike Rogers. How this was asked
Abdul El-Sayed — his platform most directly emphasizes lowering household costs through healthcare, housing, and tax/affordability measures.
As the U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee, Tim Long's platform is fundamentally dedicated to minimizing the federal tax burden, eliminating the national debt, and strictly limiting federal spending.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 19, 2026, asked about federal taxes with no voter profile. Picked Tim Long. How this was asked
What changed this week in the Michigan Senate race
Change in share points versus Oct 13, 2026. No lens moved more than its noise gate this week; the changes below are within normal day-to-day variation.
Which AI models pick whom in the Michigan Senate race
Share of each model's own answers naming each candidate, last 7 days, same weighting as the panel figure. The panel's most common pick is Abdul El-Sayed; Claude Haiku 4.5 is the model that disagrees most, picking Mike Rogers by a 22pp margin over the panel favourite.