A steady week
With five days left before the November 3 general election, nothing in this race moved enough to call it a shift. Movement in the chatbot shares, the betting markets and the polls all fell short of the threshold needed to call it a change, so each is best read as holding roughly steady over the week.
That matches the pattern of the past several days. Chatbots asked by a voter in Alaska which candidate they would back have kept Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins on top, and that has not changed since last week's roundup.
Where the chatbots split
Every chatbot checked this week still put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins first, with shares ranging from about 40 percent with Claude Haiku 4.5 to about 66 percent with GPT-5.5. No chatbot broke from the pack enough to count as an outlier against the panel's pick.
Below Kreiss-Tomkins, the chatbots scatter. Grok 4.5 and Grok 4.3 give Dave Bronson their second-largest share, at 44 percent and 37 percent respectively, while GPT-5.4 mini and GPT-5.5 instead give their second-largest share to Bernadette Wilson, at 27 percent and 16 percent. Treg Taylor draws his strongest numbers from Claude Sonnet 5 and Claude Haiku 4.5, both near 31 to 38 percent, though he did not advance past Alaska's primary. On questions about resource development and education choice, chatbots spread credit across Taylor, Wilson and Bronson depending on which record they point to, with Taylor's work as attorney general on the Willow project cited repeatedly and Wilson's platform on ANWR and NPR-A drawing separate support.
Chatbots versus markets and polls
The widest gap this week is on Kreiss-Tomkins, where the chatbots' combined pick runs about 34 points below his standing in the betting markets, which price him at an 89 percent share. The polls put him at 48 percent, ahead of Wilson at 28 percent, while the chatbots give more room to his rivals than the markets do.
On the other three candidates, the chatbots run ahead of the markets by wide margins, about 17 points higher for Taylor, 15 points higher for Bronson, and roughly even for Wilson. Against the polls, which put Kreiss-Tomkins at 48 percent, Wilson at 28 percent, Bronson at 13 percent and Taylor at 9 percent, the chatbot gaps are smaller, within about 9 points on every candidate except Wilson, where the chatbots run 17 points below her poll standing.
Alaska's August top-four primary is history now, with the field reset for the general election. Kreiss-Tomkins led that primary with 22.5 percent of the vote, well below the roughly 55 percent chatbots give him now, a reminder that the current numbers should be judged against where markets and polls stand now, not against what happened in August.
What to watch
With the general election five days away, watch whether the gap between the chatbots and the betting markets on Kreiss-Tomkins narrows as more late polling or market activity comes in. A poll from Alaska Survey Research in the field through October 18 is the most recent one feeding the current numbers, and any fresh survey before election day would be worth comparing against both lenses.