A quiet week
Nothing moved much in Alaska's governor race this week. The chatbots, the betting markets and the polls all held roughly steady compared with a week earlier, none of the shifts large enough to call a trend.
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins remained the top pick across the chatbots, which is where things stood last week too. Republican Bernadette Wilson had the week's largest week over week difference, about 2 points lower with the chatbots and about 2 points lower in the betting markets, but neither difference was large enough to count as a real change.
How the chatbots split
Ask different chatbots about this race and the answers diverge more than the panel average suggests. Gemini 3.6 Flash gave Kreiss-Tomkins 63 percent of its answers, the strongest backing of any chatbot, while Claude Sonnet 5 put him at about 50 percent and gave Republican Treg Taylor 36 percent, far above what other chatbots show him.
Grok 4.5 is the outlier. It is the only chatbot that does not put Kreiss-Tomkins on top, instead favoring Republican Dave Bronson by the thinnest of margins, 45 percent to 44 percent. Every other chatbot tested picks Kreiss-Tomkins first.
The chatbots also split on which issues favor which candidate. GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro both point to Taylor's record as attorney general on resource development and public safety, while Gemini 3.6 Flash and GPT-5.5 cite Kreiss-Tomkins on education funding and fisheries, and Wilson shows up repeatedly as the chatbots' pick on a full Permanent Fund dividend.
Chatbots, markets and polls diverge
The chatbots and the betting markets differ widely on how comfortable Kreiss-Tomkins's position is. The chatbots put him at 53 percent of their answers, but the markets give him an 81 percent chance of winning, a gap of about 28 points. Taylor's chatbot share is also about 20 points higher than his market chance, and this market is listed as live rather than thin.
Against the polls, the pattern differs. Polls, last updated September 17 and now more than a month old, put Kreiss-Tomkins at 32 percent of the vote, well below his 53 percent share with the chatbots. Wilson, by contrast, polls at 18 percent, slightly ahead of her chatbot share of 9 percent, one of the few spots where the polls run ahead of the chatbots rather than behind.
What to watch
With the general election thirteen days away, watch whether Wilson's small week over week differences with both the chatbots and the markets become larger, or whether they were just noise in an otherwise steady race. Also worth tracking is whether Grok 4.5 keeps breaking from the rest of the chatbots in favor of Bronson, since every other chatbot tested still has Kreiss-Tomkins on top.