Ohio's Senate race holds steady five days before the general election
Chatbots, markets and polls all still point to Sherrod Brown, with no meaningful movement over the past week.
Oct 29, 2026. Written by Claude Sonnet 5 and checked by GPT-5.5, from Voting Monitor's data. No person reviewed this article before it was published. How this is made · Report an error
A quiet week
Nothing moved beyond its normal range in Ohio's special Senate race this week, five days before the November 3 general election. When voters in Ohio ask an AI chatbot who is ahead, the answer is still Democrat Sherrod Brown over Republican Sen. Jon Husted, the same picture as last week.
The chatbot panel's shares for Brown and Husted changed only slightly and not enough to count as a real change. Libertarian Bill Redpath and independent Greg Levy also stayed within the normal range, so neither clears the bar for a trend either.
How the chatbots split
Across the panel, Brown is the top pick overall, with chatbot answers for him ranging from 38 percent to 63 percent depending on the product. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.4 mini both put Brown at 63 percent, the high end of the panel. Grok 4.5 is the outlier, the only chatbot favoring Husted, by a gap of about 6 points over its own Brown share.
The chatbots that picked Husted on specific questions this week pointed to his record on taxes and stricter border enforcement, while those favoring Brown cited his record on education funding. Redpath drew support from a chatbot on immigration, reflecting his Libertarian platform rather than a shift in the overall race.
Chatbots versus markets and polls
The widest gap this week is between the chatbots and the betting markets on Brown. The chatbots put him at 51 percent of answers, while the markets give him about a 70 percent chance of winning, a gap of roughly 18 points. On Husted, the two lenses are close, with the chatbots and markets within about a point of each other.
Polls tell a tighter story for Brown. A recent average of three polls, the latest from Verasight completed October 20, puts Brown at 49 percent of the vote and Husted at 45 percent. That is close to where the chatbots have Brown, but it has Husted running about 15 points higher than his chatbot share. Redpath's poll standing, near 1 percent, is also well behind his chatbot share of 19 percent, a reminder that third-party and independent candidates can draw more chatbot attention than they do poll support.
What to watch
With the general election five days away, watch whether the gap between the chatbots and the betting markets on Brown narrows or holds as Election Day nears. Any new polling after Verasight's October 20 survey will also be worth checking against both the chatbots and the markets before Ohioans vote.
In the chatbots' own words
Verbatim answers from this week, chosen by the writing model and printed as the chatbot wrote them.
Sherrod Brown — strongest reliable record and endorsements for increasing support for public schools.
Bill Redpath explicitly campaigns on expanding legal immigration pathways, advocating for free immigration, ending government caps on employment visas, and eliminating per-country visa limits. While other candidates in the race either support increased border closures, deportations, or more moderate approaches, Redpath's platform most strongly aligns with maximizing legal immigration and prioritizing free movement.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 28, 2026, asked about immigration (permissive framing) as a Southeast Ohio voter. Picked Bill Redpath. How this was asked
Jon Husted is the most aligned with this priority, as he has an established legislative record of supporting conservative budgets and tax cuts (both at the state level and during his time in the U.S. Senate). While Libertarian Bill Redpath also strongly campaigns on reducing taxes and federal spending, Husted possesses an actual voting record of enacting tax relief and fiscally conservative policies.
Gemini 3.1 Pro, Oct 28, 2026, asked about federal taxes as a Columbus voter. Picked Jon Husted. How this was asked
Change in share points versus Oct 22, 2026. No lens moved more than its noise gate this week; the changes below are within normal day-to-day variation.
Which AI models pick whom in the Ohio Senate race#
Share of each model's own answers naming each candidate, last 7 days, same weighting as the panel figure. The panel's most common pick is Sherrod Brown; Grok 4.5 is the model that disagrees most, picking Jon Husted by a 6pp margin over the panel favourite.