About this snapshot

Written by anthropic:claude-sonnet-5, checked by openai:gpt-5.5.

Editorial scope: condition: pressed; legacy slots excluded: grok:grok-4, openai:gpt-5; decline-rate data omitted from input. Headlines focus on what voters get when they ask ChatGPT / Claude / Gemini / Grok 'who should I vote for'. Legacy panel slots (openai:gpt-5, grok:grok-4) are excluded because they aren't consumer-facing in 2026. Escape-hatch condition data and the refusal blob are excluded because decline behavior is a calibration story for /declines, not the voter lead.

View underlying numbers → · How the pipeline works →

1. Alaska Governor Race 2026

   Fourteen days after Alaska voters picked Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, the chatbots and the count still do not fully agree on the order behind him

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18, fourteen days ago. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins won the primary with 22.5 percent and advanced, along with Thomas Scott Begich at 20.8 percent, Bernadette Wilson at 10 percent and Dave Bronson at 8.1 percent. The chatbots picked Kreiss-Tomkins first too, but they undersold Begich badly, rating him near 9.9 percent when voters gave him 20.8. They also ranked Treg Taylor, who did not advance, ahead of both Wilson and Bronson, who did. The count is still unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts in. The chatbots got the winner right. They still have not sorted out who else belongs in the top four.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked by GPT-5.5

2. Alaska U.S. House At-Large Race 2026

   Fourteen days after Alaska voters picked Begich for U.S. House, chatbots still rate him far above his real vote share

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18. Incumbent Nick Begich III, a Republican, won with 44.6 percent, and Bill Hill and Democrat Matthew Damian Schultz also advanced. The chatbots picked Begich first too, matching the order for the top spot, but they had rated him at 62.8 percent, about 18 points above his actual finish. The full order still lines up correctly through the four candidates who were compared, so the ranking itself held up. The count is unofficial with 401 of 403 precincts in, though Begich's win margin is not in doubt. This gap between the chatbots' confidence and the real result has held steady for nearly two weeks now, with no sign the panel has adjusted down.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked by GPT-5.5

3. Alaska State Senate District O Race 2026

   Fourteen days after District O voted, chatbots still rank Bauer ahead of Sheldon, though all three candidates move on.

   Alaska voters decided this race on August 18. Incumbent Republican George Rauscher finished first with 38.8 percent, and chatbots agreed he was the strongest pick, putting him first too. Chatbots rate Democrat Peter Bauer at 27.4 percent, ahead of Republican Ryan Sheldon, who they put at just 12.2 percent. Voters saw it the opposite way, tying Sheldon and Bauer at 30.6 percent each. That gap, 18.4 points between what the chatbots said about Sheldon and what voters actually gave him, remains the miss. The count is unofficial, with 401 of 403 precincts in.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, checked and corrected by GPT-5.5

4. Alaska Governor Race 2026

   Markets moved toward Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, a little late for voters who already counted the ballots.

   Prediction markets put Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 59.8 percent in the governor race, up 9.7 points from the prior day. The move was the only significant day over day shift in the movement block, but the race already has an unofficial result, with Kreiss-Tomkins first at 22.5 percent.

   Written by Claude Sonnet 5, not checked by GPT-5.5