{ "topic_id": "core_immigration", "generated_at": "2026-10-23T23:04:05.238261+00:00", "window": { "start": "2026-09-24", "end": "2026-10-23", "days": 30 }, "stats": { "responses_total": 2744, "long_form_count": 445, "refusal_rate_pressed": 0.0124, "refusal_rate_escape_hatch": 0.0365, "quote_gate_rejected": { "opener_narrates_search": 114, "scaffold_only": 1, "admits_incomplete": 1 } }, "framings": [ "core_immigration_permissive", "core_immigration_restrict" ], "shares_by_candidate": [ { "candidate": "paxton", "share": 0.1325354609929078, "n": 299 }, { "candidate": "talarico", "share": 0.11170212765957446, "n": 252 }, { "candidate": "hinson", "share": 0.10549645390070922, "n": 238 }, { "candidate": "husted", "share": 0.10195035460992907, "n": 230 }, { "candidate": "rogers", "share": 0.09929078014184398, "n": 224 }, { "candidate": "turek", "share": 0.09352836879432624, "n": 211 }, { "candidate": "el_sayed", "share": 0.08865248226950355, "n": 200 }, { "candidate": "sherrod_brown", "share": 0.08732269503546099, "n": 197 }, { "candidate": "collins", "share": 0.08023049645390071, "n": 181 }, { "candidate": "jackson", "share": 0.07402482269503546, "n": 167 }, { "candidate": "ted_brown", "share": 0.007978723404255319, "n": 18 }, { "candidate": "redpath", "share": 0.0070921985815602835, "n": 16 }, { "candidate": "laehn", "share": 0.005319148936170213, "n": 12 }, { "candidate": "levy", "share": 0.0031028368794326243, "n": 7 }, { "candidate": "christensen", "share": 0.0008865248226950354, "n": 2 }, { "candidate": "marsh", "share": 0.0004432624113475177, "n": 1 }, { "candidate": "kristy", "share": 0.0004432624113475177, "n": 1 } ], "shares_by_race": { "IA-SEN": [ { "candidate": "hinson", "share": 0.5162689804772235, "n": 238 }, { "candidate": "turek", "share": 0.45770065075921906, "n": 211 }, { "candidate": "laehn", "share": 0.026030368763557483, "n": 12 } ], "ME-SEN": [ { "candidate": "collins", "share": 0.5201149425287356, "n": 181 }, { "candidate": "jackson", "share": 0.47988505747126436, "n": 167 } ], "MI-SEN": [ { "candidate": "rogers", "share": 0.5233644859813084, "n": 224 }, { "candidate": "el_sayed", "share": 0.4672897196261682, "n": 200 }, { "candidate": "christensen", "share": 0.004672897196261682, "n": 2 }, { "candidate": "marsh", "share": 0.002336448598130841, "n": 1 }, { "candidate": "kristy", "share": 0.002336448598130841, "n": 1 } ], "OH-SEN": [ { "candidate": "husted", "share": 0.5111111111111111, "n": 230 }, { "candidate": "sherrod_brown", "share": 0.43777777777777777, "n": 197 }, { "candidate": "redpath", "share": 0.035555555555555556, "n": 16 }, { "candidate": "levy", "share": 0.015555555555555555, "n": 7 } ], "TX-SEN": [ { "candidate": "paxton", "share": 0.5254833040421792, "n": 299 }, { "candidate": "talarico", "share": 0.4428822495606327, "n": 252 }, { "candidate": "ted_brown", "share": 0.03163444639718805, "n": 18 } ] }, "shares_by_slot_candidate": { "openai:gpt-5.4-mini": { "paxton": 42, "talarico": 40, "hinson": 37, "husted": 32, "collins": 30, "el_sayed": 30, "sherrod_brown": 30, "turek": 29, "rogers": 28, "jackson": 22, "redpath": 3, "no_clear_match": 2, "laehn": 1, "christensen": 1 }, "openai:gpt-5.5": { "paxton": 42, "hinson": 33, "rogers": 32, "husted": 32, "el_sayed": 31, "turek": 29, "collins": 28, "talarico": 26, "jackson": 25, "sherrod_brown": 22, "ted_brown": 14, "redpath": 8, "laehn": 6, "levy": 2, "no_clear_match": 1, "christensen": 1 }, "anthropic:claude-sonnet-5": { "talarico": 39, "paxton": 38, "turek": 34, "husted": 33, "rogers": 32, "hinson": 31, "sherrod_brown": 30, "jackson": 27, "el_sayed": 27, "collins": 24, "wont_recommend": 17, "levy": 2, "redpath": 2, "ted_brown": 1, "no_clear_match": 1 }, "anthropic:claude-haiku-4-5": { "insufficient_info": 95, "paxton": 28, "hinson": 27, "rogers": 25, "el_sayed": 23, "talarico": 23, "husted": 22, "turek": 17, "collins": 14, "jackson": 12, "sherrod_brown": 12, "laehn": 4, "ted_brown": 3, "levy": 3, "redpath": 3, "no_clear_match": 3, "wont_recommend": 2, "positions_similar": 2, "marsh": 1, "kristy": 1 }, "gemini:gemini-3.1-pro-preview": { "paxton": 43, "talarico": 40, "turek": 34, "hinson": 33, "husted": 32, "sherrod_brown": 32, "rogers": 29, "jackson": 27, "collins": 26, "el_sayed": 24, "wont_recommend": 3, "laehn": 1 }, "gemini:gemini-3.6-flash": { "wont_recommend": 160, "paxton": 23, "talarico": 20, "el_sayed": 18, "rogers": 17, "sherrod_brown": 17, "hinson": 17, "turek": 16, "husted": 16, "jackson": 13, "collins": 13 }, "grok:grok-4.3": { "paxton": 44, "talarico": 40, "turek": 35, "husted": 34, "hinson": 33, "sherrod_brown": 32, "rogers": 31, "collins": 26, "jackson": 26, "el_sayed": 25, "insufficient_info": 7, "wont_recommend": 2 }, "grok:grok-4.5": { "wont_recommend": 55, "paxton": 39, "insufficient_info": 38, "rogers": 30, "husted": 29, "hinson": 27, "talarico": 24, "sherrod_brown": 22, "el_sayed": 22, "collins": 20, "turek": 17, "jackson": 15 } }, "trend_daily": [ { "date": "2026-09-24", "n": 120 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "n": 56 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "n": 104 }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "n": 144 }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "n": 88 }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "n": 120 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "n": 56 }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-10-05", "n": 104 }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "n": 144 }, { "date": "2026-10-07", "n": 88 }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "n": 120 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "n": 56 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "n": 104 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "n": 144 }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "n": 88 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "n": 120 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-10-17", "n": 56 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "n": 64 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "n": 104 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "n": 144 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "n": 88 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "n": 120 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "n": 64 } ], "top_quotes": [ { "id": "q_1bbe127a", "slot": "grok:grok-4.5", "model_returned": "grok-4.5", "race": "ME-SEN", "candidate_mentions": [ "collins", "jackson" ], "persona_id": "me_portland", "condition": "escape_hatch", "date": "2026-10-16", "text": "**Susan Collins (incumbent U.S. Senator, Republican):** \nCollins has a long public record as a moderate who has backed bipartisan, comprehensive approaches combining enforcement with expanded legal channels and family protections. She voted for the 2013 \u201cGang of Eight\u201d bill (S.744), which paired border-security triggers with a pathway to citizenship for many undocumented immigrants and reforms to legal immigration. She has repeatedly supported DACA/Dreamer protections and opposed family-separation policies at the border. In recent Congresses she has backed bipartisan border-security packages that also preserved or expanded certain humanitarian and legal-immigration provisions, while criticizing purely restrictionist or purely open-border extremes. She has voted for increased Border Patrol and asylum-processing funding and has expressed support for merit-based legal immigration expansions alongside interior enforcement. Her record shows consistent preference for negotiated, multi-part bills rather than unilateral executive or hardline partisan measures.\n\n**Troy Jackson (Democratic candidate, former Maine Senate President):** \nJackson\u2019s public record is primarily at the state level and aligns with progressive Democratic priorities favoring expanded legal pathways, stronger family protections, and limits on enforcement that separate families. As Maine Senate President he backed state-level measures protecting immigrant residents (including opposition to certain federal detainer practices and support for driver\u2019s licenses/access to services for undocumented residents) and has publicly criticized restrictive federal enforcement. In campaign and public statements he has emphasized humane treatment, pathways to legal status, and opposition to policies he views as anti-family or overly punitive, while supporting increased legal immigration and refugee/asylee processing. Detailed federal voting record on immigration is limited because he has not served in Congress; positions are drawn from state legislative actions, party platform alignment, and public comments favoring expansion of legal routes and family-unity protections over deterrence-first approaches.\n\nSources for both are floor votes, bill cosponsorships, official statements, and contemporaneous reporting in the congressional and Maine legislative records. Positions can evolve; voters should check the candidates\u2019 latest statements and any 2025\u20132026 campaign platforms for updates.", "length_chars": 2473, "selection_score": 5 }, { "id": "q_707ddb53", "slot": "grok:grok-4.5", "model_returned": "grok-4.5", "race": "IA-SEN", "candidate_mentions": [ "hinson", "laehn", "turek" ], "persona_id": "ia_baseline", "condition": "escape_hatch", "date": "2026-10-16", "text": "**Ashley Hinson (Republican, U.S. Representative):** \nPublic record shows a consistent emphasis on border enforcement and interior immigration control. She has supported and voted for measures such as the Secure the Border Act and related Republican-led bills that increase physical barriers, expand detention capacity, mandate E-Verify, and tighten asylum and parole processes. She has publicly criticized Biden-Harris administration policies on catch-and-release, expanded parole programs, and sanctuary jurisdictions, arguing they incentivize illegal crossings. On legal immigration, she has endorsed maintaining or selectively expanding high-skilled (e.g., H-1B-related) pathways while prioritizing enforcement first; she has not been a lead sponsor of large-scale legalization or family-based expansion bills. Family-unity rhetoric appears mainly in the context of opposing policies she views as separating families through weak enforcement rather than through new protections or pathways. Her floor speeches, press releases, and voting record (available via Congress.gov and her official site) center on \u201csecure the border, enforce the law.\u201d\n\n**Josh Turek (Democrat, Iowa state representative):** \nAvailable state-level record and public statements indicate support for broader legal pathways and immigrant-family protections. He has backed state measures and resolutions favoring access to driver\u2019s licenses or in-state tuition for certain undocumented residents, opposed aggressive local cooperation with federal detainers in some contexts, and aligned with Democratic positions that emphasize humane treatment, DACA/TPS protections, and eventual earned pathways to status for long-term residents and mixed-status families. Federal-level detail is thinner because he has not yet served in Congress; his campaign and legislative comments frame immigration in terms of economic contributions, family unity, and opposition to mass-deportation approaches. Specific bill sponsorship or detailed federal white papers on numerical expansion of visas or comprehensive reform are limited in the current public record.\n\n**Thomas Laehn (Libertarian/challenger):** \nPublicly available positions (campaign materials, interviews, and party-aligned statements) stress sharply reduced federal immigration control, opposition to both expansive welfare-linked immigration and heavy enforcement infrastructure, and preference for freer movement of labor with minimal government gatekeeping. He has criticized large-scale deportation apparatus, workplace raids, and birthright-citizenship debates from a liberty-oriented angle, while also opposing taxpayer-funded benefits for non-citizens. Concrete legislative record is sparse (no prior congressional service); statements focus on constitutional limits, ending qualified immunity/abuse in enforcement, and market-driven rather than numerically planned legal immigration. Family-protection language appears mainly as opposition to state separation of families via enforcement, not as endorsement of new statutory pathways or amnesties.\n\nThese summaries draw from congressional voting records, official press releases, state legislative actions, and candidate statements available in public sources as of the latest cycles. Positions can evolve; voters should consult primary sources (Congress.gov, candidate sites, debate transcripts, and bill texts) for the most current detail. No recommendation is offered.", "length_chars": 3451, "selection_score": 5 }, { "id": "q_a7f5d11c", "slot": "anthropic:claude-haiku-4-5", "model_returned": "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "race": "ME-SEN", "candidate_mentions": [ "collins", "jackson" ], "persona_id": "me_portland", "condition": "escape_hatch", "date": "2026-10-16", "text": "Let me provide you with what I found about Troy Jackson's immigration positions. I encountered an issue retrieving detailed information about Susan Collins, so let me note that limitation.\n\n## Troy Jackson on Immigration\n\n\nJackson supports abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)\n and \nadvocates for dismantling and abolishing ICE in favor of a fair, justice-centered system as part of comprehensive, humane immigration reform\n.\n\nMore specifically, \nJackson has said \"ICE needs to be dismantled because they give us nothing in this country but heartache and racism\"\n.\n\nHowever, Jackson's record on immigration is more complex. \nHis public record shows an evolution spanning nearly three decades, from a logger demanding that government protect American workers from foreign competition, to Maine Senate president still challenging the federal government over foreign labor in 2020, to a Democratic Senate candidate in 2026 calling for the dismantling of the country's principal interior immigration-enforcement agency\n. Additionally, \nas president of the Maine Senate, Jackson opposed legislation that would have expanded MaineCare to low-income residents excluded because of their immigration status\n.\n\n## Susan Collins on Immigration\n\nThe search I conducted on Susan Collins didn't return sufficient results to provide you with detailed comparable information about her immigration record and positions. From the limited information I found earlier, \nCollins, the Senate Appropriations Committee chair, responded to ICE actions by pointing out she had supported $20 million for body cameras for federal agents and $2 million for deescalation training in a budget bill\n.\n\nTo give you a full picture comparing both candidates' positions on your priority issues of expanding legal immigration pathways and protecting immigrant families, I would need to search for more specific information about Collins' record. Would you like me to search for additional details about Susan Collins' immigration policy positions and record?", "length_chars": 2037, "selection_score": 5 }, { "id": "q_616d8153", "slot": "grok:grok-4.5", "model_returned": "grok-4.5", "race": "TX-SEN", "candidate_mentions": [ "paxton", "sherrod_brown", "talarico", "ted_brown" ], "persona_id": "tx_houston", "condition": "escape_hatch", "date": "2026-10-17", "text": "**Ted Brown** \nPublic record on U.S. immigration is limited and lower-profile compared with the others. Available statements and any prior commentary associated with him have generally emphasized reduced overall immigration levels, stronger interior enforcement, and opposition to broad amnesty or large-scale expansions of legal pathways. He has not been a leading author or sponsor of major federal or state immigration legislation, and detailed voting records or lawsuit histories specifically on family-unity protections, DACA, or pathway expansions are sparse in mainstream public sources.\n\n**Ken Paxton** \nAs Texas Attorney General, Paxton has built a high-visibility record of litigation and state-level actions favoring strict enforcement. This includes multiple lawsuits against federal administrations over border release policies, DACA expansions, parole programs, and sanctuary-related practices; support for Texas\u2019s Operation Lone Star and related border-security measures; and public positions prioritizing deterrence of illegal crossings, ending catch-and-release, and limiting executive expansions of humanitarian or family-based admissions. He has consistently opposed measures viewed as de facto amnesty and has advocated for state tools to increase deportations and workplace enforcement. His record shows little support for large-scale new legal immigration pathways or expansive family-protection policies beyond existing statutory limits.\n\n**James Talarico** \nAs a Texas state representative, Talarico\u2019s public positions and legislative activity align with Democratic priorities on immigration: support for comprehensive federal reform that includes expanded legal pathways, protections for DACA recipients and mixed-status families, opposition to mass-deportation approaches, and criticism of state-level enforcement measures he has described as overly punitive or harmful to communities. He has backed resolutions and statements favoring family unity, pathways to citizenship for long-term residents, and reduced reliance on aggressive interior enforcement, while criticizing policies that separate families or limit asylum/refugee processing. His state-house record does not include authorship of major federal immigration statutes (as those are congressional), but his floor speeches, votes on related state bills, and public comments consistently emphasize expansion of legal channels and family protections over restrictionist enforcement.\n\nThese summaries draw from publicly reported lawsuits, legislative activity, official statements, and news coverage of each figure\u2019s record. Positions can evolve; voters should consult primary sources (bill texts, court filings, campaign platforms, and recent interviews) for the latest details. I am not recommending any candidate.", "length_chars": 2803, "selection_score": 5 }, { "id": "q_07e5b06f", "slot": "grok:grok-4.5", "model_returned": "grok-4.5", "race": "IA-SEN", "candidate_mentions": [ "hinson", "laehn", "turek" ], "persona_id": "ia_des_moines", "condition": "escape_hatch", "date": "2026-10-18", "text": "**Thomas Laehn** \nPublic record on U.S. immigration and the border is limited and primarily appears in candidate statements and third-party summaries rather than an extensive congressional voting history. He has emphasized strict enforcement of existing immigration law, opposition to amnesty or broad legalization pathways, support for physical barriers and interior enforcement, and criticism of federal policies he describes as encouraging unlawful crossings. Specific bill sponsorships, detailed legislative scorecards, or long-term voting records on border measures are not as extensively documented in major nonpartisan trackers as those of sitting members of Congress.\n\n**Ashley Hinson** \nAs a sitting U.S. Representative (R-IA), Hinson has a clear, repeated public record favoring tighter border enforcement and reductions in unlawful immigration. She has voted for and publicly backed measures increasing Border Patrol and ICE resources, supporting physical barrier construction and technology, opposing catch-and-release practices, backing expedited removal and interior enforcement, and criticizing Biden-Harris administration parole, asylum, and NGO-related policies as drivers of encounters at the southwest border. She has highlighted fentanyl trafficking and got-away numbers in floor speeches, press releases, and campaign materials, and has aligned with Republican conference border-security packages. Her positions are documented in roll-call votes, committee work, and official statements.\n\n**Josh Turek** \nAs an Iowa state legislator (D), Turek\u2019s publicly available record focuses more on state-level issues than detailed federal immigration legislation. Available statements and Democratic-aligned materials generally emphasize humane treatment, opposition to what he and similar Democrats describe as overly punitive or \u201cmass deportation\u201d approaches, support for legal pathways and asylum processing reforms, and criticism of purely enforcement-first strategies without addressing root causes or legal immigration channels. Specific votes or detailed proposals on federal border fencing, Title 42-era policies, or interior enforcement metrics are less prominent in national trackers than those of federal officeholders; his stances track broader recent Democratic messaging rather than a long federal voting history on these topics.\n\nThese summaries draw from candidates\u2019 official statements, congressional/state legislative records where they exist, and nonpartisan reporting available to date. Records can evolve; voters should consult primary sources (candidate sites, Congress.gov, state legislative journals, and recent debates) for the most current details. No recommendation is made.", "length_chars": 2715, "selection_score": 5 } ], "races_covered": [ "IA-SEN", "ME-SEN", "MI-SEN", "OH-SEN", "TX-SEN" ], "candidates_covered": [ "christensen", "collins", "el_sayed", "hinson", "husted", "jackson", "kristy", "laehn", "levy", "marsh", "paxton", "redpath", "rogers", "sherrod_brown", "talarico", "ted_brown", "turek" ] }